This is weird, i was actually watching some program last night on the history channel about what would happen if an asteroid collided with earth. It was pretty interesting...
I better be doing something fun when it hits earth. If I die taking out the trash, Ill be ******.
2 things pop into my mind reading this thread...
1) I CAN'T WAIT for Superfan to read this (eat it NASA boy!)
2) I hope NASA was right and he's wrong, because I just moved to the East Coast :eek: Though I guess I have 30 years to relocate...
If the asteroid is that massive, how can a piece of space junk alter it's trajectory as much as he states? And how does the collision with the space junk IF it can actually alter its trajectory one iota automatically make it more likely to strike the Earth? Why wouldn't it make it LESS likely????
I think the 13 year old German kid is wrong. And I'm not alone....:smile:
Yes, FG, I did see this...about 12 hours before it got posted here early in the morning (around 1 a.m.) last night (And I knew it was phony when the refutation got posted on NASAWatch at around 6-7 a.m. when I woke up). I got suspicious and checked it out, the red flags really came up when I read this on JPL's web site:
Indicating that yes, they did look at collision probability. Besides, the fact that it's inclination is 40 degrees makes it obscenely unlikely that there's a collision.Quote:
This is within the distance of Earth's geosynchronous satellites. However, because Apophis will pass interior to the positions of these satellites at closest approach, in a plane inclined at 40 degrees to the Earth's equator and passing outside the equatorial geosynchronous zone when crossing the equatorial plane, it does not threaten the satellites in that heavily populated region.
The article was littered with fishy facts, like "40,000 satellites" (probably true, but most of those are in LEO, nowhere near a geostationary orbit). Honestly, my first thought was "First of all, HOW and secondly WHY does a 13 year-old have access to every satellite's orbital elements - particularly the ones in GEO (mostly spy and communication satellites)?" This is what you get when the world news picks up a story in the German equivalent of the National Enquirer....
And yes, 1 in 450 would be an alarming number. Not as alarming as when they first found Apophis (odds were 1 in 233), and especially not as alarming as the maximum number (1 in 37) they got while observing it.
I'm not an expert on NEO's, but something like a satellite hitting Apophis would have a significant impact, because it's so close to the Earth the system is really sensitive - small pertubations can significantly change the orbit.
On a related note, I've attached the scale of the Apophis pass on April 13, 2029.
By the way, your dinner's ready.
Glad to see you finally got around to responding. Though I have to say I'm somewhat disappointed.... you did tear the article a new one, but I was expecting something a little more firey... :sad:
Guess if I want fire I should go eat some Inferno wings insted...
Kid just thinks he's all hot and all that. In reality, he's just a typical young-skull-full-of-mush. The asteroid won't even be going anywhere close to the satellites. In NASA's defense, I'm sure someone thought of it, and dismissed it as too stupid to mention. Then this kid thinks of it and thinks he's the genius of the world for thinking of something NASA didn't.