We just had a downpour in Ames. Thunder, lightning, and pebble-sized hail. Nothing too major, but strong for a few minutes.
They just said on the news that rarely does the NWS have a "High" threat of severe weather. Slight and moderate aren't uncommon, but High is.
Forecast for today:
Thunderstorms likely with a strong chance of more Hawkeye football player arrests.....
(sorry Jon, couldn't resist)
Sounds like a lot of it is north of the metro.
Yes, it is pretty rare for the storm prediction center to place Iowa in a high risk for severe wx. Maybe once or twice a year, if that. Looks like "the event" will be mainly this evening into overnight hours with some significant tornado's early on. Will be interesting...
PS...Jon, since when did you become a meterologist? Most people don't even know the SPC even exists. :smile:
I was just looking at my Mega Ultimate Sex Panther Doppler Radar and it shows that it is gonna rain.
I know people that would rather look at the TV to see what the weather is doing than turn their head and look out the window.
I am fascinated by storms...but the past week's situation really takes the fun out of it! Wishes to everyone for their safety!
The 11 am DAY 1 outlook was a substantial upgrade over the one from earlier this morning.
The moderate risk area was upgraded to HIGH (Sunday's fatal setup didn't even garner a HIGH risk tag) and I believe the risk areas were expanded east as well.
The stuff around Ames and Northern Iowa as I type this, isn't the main show.
The main show should start developing out in Central/Eastern Nebraska later this afternoon as Tornadic supercells that evolve into a Wind and Hail event as the storms form a MCS (Mesoscale Convective Complex - fancy term for overnight thunderstorm complexes) and move east across Iowa.
There are going to be a few Particular Dangerous Situation watch boxes and lots of local channel interuptions for severe weather later this evening/night...
Or given the fickle nature of weather, there is a (very small) chance we get absolutely nothing:confused:
What is really fun is trying to figure out all the stuff on the Mesoanalysis pages. Lots of Shear, >3000 CAPE and no CINH, and backing winds with height = ????