More strong storms predicted for today

**JonDMiller** · 05-29-2008, 11:15 AM

Storm Prediction Center May 29, 2008 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

**dustinal** · 05-29-2008, 12:44 PM

We just had a downpour in Ames. Thunder, lightning, and pebble-sized hail. Nothing too major, but strong for a few minutes.

**wartknight** · 05-29-2008, 12:46 PM

They just said on the news that rarely does the NWS have a "High" threat of severe weather. Slight and moderate aren't uncommon, but High is.

**snowcraig2.0** · 05-29-2008, 12:54 PM

Forecast for today:

Thunderstorms likely with a strong chance of more Hawkeye football player arrests.....

(sorry Jon, couldn't resist)

**mj4cy** · 05-29-2008, 12:54 PM

Sounds like a lot of it is north of the metro.

**1TRUFAN** · 05-29-2008, 12:55 PM

Yes, it is pretty rare for the storm prediction center to place Iowa in a high risk for severe wx. Maybe once or twice a year, if that. Looks like "the event" will be mainly this evening into overnight hours with some significant tornado's early on. Will be interesting...

PS...Jon, since when did you become a meterologist? Most people don't even know the SPC even exists.

**cloneu** · 05-29-2008, 12:58 PM

I was just looking at my Mega Ultimate Sex Panther Doppler Radar and it shows that it is gonna rain.

**cycloneworld** · 05-29-2008, 01:00 PM

Originally Posted by cloneu

I was just looking at my Mega Ultimate Sex Panther Doppler Radar and it shows that it is gonna rain.

I'm not gonna lie cloneu, that smells like pure gasoline.

**JonDMiller** · 05-29-2008, 01:02 PM

Originally Posted by 1TRUFAN

PS...Jon, since when did you become a meterologist? Most people don't even know the SPC even exists.

Anytime rain is in the forecast, I check that site and look at the meso discussions. I have always been fascinated with storms, so that site is something I check out frequently.

Also, Willard's Weather page :)

**mj4cy** · 05-29-2008, 01:03 PM

I know people that would rather look at the TV to see what the weather is doing than turn their head and look out the window.

**theshadow** · 05-29-2008, 01:05 PM

Originally Posted by cycloneworld

I'm not gonna lie cloneu, that smells like pure gasoline.

Stings the nostrils.

**RyCy04** · 05-29-2008, 01:06 PM

Originally Posted by mjones34

Sounds like a lot of it is north of the metro.

There are some storms just SW of Omaha that are just starting to blow up heading here. They will most likely shoot north of Des Moines area though.

**cyfanatic** · 05-29-2008, 01:07 PM

I am fascinated by storms...but the past week's situation really takes the fun out of it! Wishes to everyone for their safety!

**1TRUFAN** · 05-29-2008, 01:07 PM

Originally Posted by JonDMiller

Anytime rain is in the forecast, I check that site and look at the meso discussions. I have always been fascinated with storms, so that site is something I check out frequently.

Also, Willard's Weather page :)

Wow Jon, I always pegged you as Hawkeye Scum, but you might be alright afterall!!

**matmann22** · 05-29-2008, 01:12 PM

The 11 am DAY 1 outlook was a substantial upgrade over the one from earlier this morning.

The moderate risk area was upgraded to HIGH (Sunday's fatal setup didn't even garner a HIGH risk tag) and I believe the risk areas were expanded east as well.

The stuff around Ames and Northern Iowa as I type this, isn't the main show.

The main show should start developing out in Central/Eastern Nebraska later this afternoon as Tornadic supercells that evolve into a Wind and Hail event as the storms form a MCS (Mesoscale Convective Complex - fancy term for overnight thunderstorm complexes) and move east across Iowa.

There are going to be a few Particular Dangerous Situation watch boxes and lots of local channel interuptions for severe weather later this evening/night...

Or given the fickle nature of weather, there is a (very small) chance we get absolutely nothing

What is really fun is trying to figure out all the stuff on the Mesoanalysis pages. Lots of Shear, >3000 CAPE and no CINH, and backing winds with height = ????