Three Ominous Indicators Point To Drought In 2008

Cyclone42 · 05-30-2008, 07:29 PM

Just posting this for the humor value. This article was composed late last year, and it is funny to see just how far wrong they were. At least here in Omaha, since late March, we've had probably a dozen or so days in which it did not rain. We've had plenty of rain this spring, and it just keeps coming and coming and coming.

Three Ominous Indicators Point To Drought In 2008

BigBake · 05-30-2008, 07:49 PM

And add to that the cars pictured on kcci.com in the flooded parking lot of the Ames Wal Mart.

MNclone · 05-30-2008, 08:21 PM

I'm by no means disagreeing with your post, but....
We have only had 2 inches of rain here this month. Average is over 3. The rain just keeps skipping to the north and south. (usually by about 15-20 miles) My grass is already turning brown, as though it is july. In fact, I was just outside watering my garden because things were not looking so hot.
So send some of that rain to Burnsville!

jdoggivjc · 05-30-2008, 08:52 PM

Are these the same clowns that predicted a record # of hurricanes last year (undoubtedly due to global warming)?

Carl1977 · 05-30-2008, 09:42 PM

Originally Posted by Cyclone42

Just posting this for the humor value. This article was composed late last year, and it is funny to see just how far wrong they were. At least here in Omaha, since late March, we've had probably a dozen or so days in which it did not rain. We've had plenty of rain this spring, and it just keeps coming and coming and coming.

Three Ominous Indicators Point To Drought In 2008

History is a good indicator of a possible drought in 2008. Jumping to conclusions this early in a season is not good science. I certainly hope we don't get too dry, but 1988 was a wet spring and one of the worst drought years in (Iowa) history. I also notice the person quoted in the article is from Iowa State.

TykeClone · 05-30-2008, 09:53 PM

Originally Posted by Carl1977

History is a good indicator of a possible drought in 2008. Jumping to conclusions this early in a season is not good science. I certainly hope we don't get too dry, but 1988 was a wet spring and one of the worst drought years in (Iowa) history. I also notice the person quoted in the article is from Iowa State.

Elwynn Taylor - mr. everything is cyclical.

I've heard him give a talk about the chances of a drought a couple years ago, and he was pointing to 2008 and 2009 at that time based upon a couple of different cyclical things going on at the time.

Wesley · 05-30-2008, 10:00 PM

Originally Posted by jdoggivjc

Are these the same clowns that predicted a record # of hurricanes last year (undoubtedly due to global warming)?

Same clowns: Bozo and his friends.

Cyclone62 · 05-30-2008, 10:12 PM

So... summer is over already? We don't have a chance for a drought?

isuno1fan · 05-30-2008, 10:13 PM

Summer hasn't even begun. A drought is still very possible.

anticyclonic · 05-30-2008, 10:22 PM

We didn't have a wet spring in 1988 -too many dry field fires in April; spring 1983 was wet with hot dry summer. The difference between 1988 and now is that at least we have some subsoil moisture in case it does turn off dry. In 1988, 11 of 12 months were under in precipitation (Nov. was exception) plus it was one hot hell of a summer. I know everyone hates the rain but if we have a drought it will be a total disaster-food prices will explode even further and numerous farmers will go under.

clonefarmer · 05-31-2008, 09:38 AM

Anticyclonic has his weather history right. 1988 was very hot and dry clear into early August. 1983 was wet into early June when the rains shut off and it turned hot. A scenario somewhat like 1983 is what Elwynn Taylor has been saying is possible or most likely. He's not saying it's absolutely going to happen--he's saying given that LaNina is going away, conditions are shifting to favor it happening in a few more weeks. The timing of any drought determines how devastating it is. No one really even notices them if they occur during the fall months. I'm sure he explained it carefully and then the reporter condenses it down to a catchy headline. Elwynn is a very down-to-earth regular guy.

Here are his latest comments:

detail

Wx4Cy · 05-31-2008, 10:22 AM

Hasn't snowed in May either. I would take that mean that it won't snow the rest of the year.

heyguy85 · 05-31-2008, 10:44 AM

We should have a CyBookie bet on how many inches of rain we will have in June and July. I'd bet all I have that we will experience a drought this summer.

anticyclonic · 05-31-2008, 03:59 PM

It can turn off dry fast. Through just a few days ago, before all the bad weather hit, we were getting fairly dry for May. Even though we are ahead on rainfall, we need an inch of rain a week in June. I am sure it will all balance out in July.

1988 was the opposite of 1993, that year was about 15" below precipitation for the year dependent were you lived. At least most crops grew in 93' (those that were not flooded by overflowing streams).

Cyclone90 · 05-31-2008, 04:43 PM

Originally Posted by TykeClone

Elwynn Taylor - mr. everything is cyclical.

I've heard him give a talk about the chances of a drought a couple years ago, and he was pointing to 2008 and 2009 at that time based upon a couple of different cyclical things going on at the time.

I can't remember a time when Elwynn isn't talking about a drought. Years and years. One of these summers he'll get it right just by chance. And being down to earth, hardly. His arm must be pretty limber to be able to reach his back that easily.