Hurricane Gustav

**Iastfan112** · 08-30-2008, 06:49 PM

Thing looks nasty, really gotten its act together over the past 24 hrs. Catagory 4 at the moment and crossing Cuba which looks like is weakening it somewhat(eye looks more ragged). The bad thing is that right now its tracking north and east of where the best guess was(still within the cone of uncertainty) and its putting New Orleans at higher risk, fortunately it looks as if the situation is being taken seriously and people are getting the heck outta Dodge.

**cstrunk** · 08-30-2008, 06:53 PM

I was wondering when someone was going to start a discussion on this. I was getting ready to start one, too.

Things aren't looking good for the northern Gulf coast, especially Louisiana. Hopefully this thing weakens or takes a different track, but right now all signs point to an extremely dangerous hurricane passing dangerously close to an area already devastated a few years ago. I am glad people are evacuating, I hope they can get everyone out of harms path.

I am really concerned about how the oil market is going to respond to this. I hope things don't get out of hand.

**Iastfan112** · 08-30-2008, 06:56 PM

Originally Posted by cstrunk

I was wondering when someone was going to start a discussion on this. I was getting ready to start one, too.

Things aren't looking good for the northern Gulf coast, especially Louisiana. Hopefully this thing weakens or takes a different track, but right now all signs point to an extremely dangerous hurricane passing dangerously close to an area already devastated a few years ago. I am glad people are evacuating, I hope they can get everyone out of harms path.

I am really concerned about how the oil market is going to respond to this. I hope things don't get out of hand.

My advice would be to fill up now as I'm guessing we'll see a significant spike Monday, even if it doesn't cause extensive damage the platforms in the Gulf I'm sure will close down for a couple days and with the evacuations I'm sure New Orleans will be shut down for a few days, all leading to higher prices at the pump.

**AirWalke** · 08-30-2008, 06:59 PM

This thing has the potential to go category 5 and match Katrina. Used to live by the coast myself, and I know how aggravating hurricane season can be. I'm just glad the people living in Louisiana are heeding the warnings and evacuating well in advance now... though it probably helps that nearly all the computer models show it hitting New Orleans again.

**brianhos** · 08-30-2008, 07:03 PM

The resort we go to in Jamaica reported 25" of rain associated with this. If that happened in NO, it would be ugly.

**Iastfan112** · 08-30-2008, 07:07 PM

I would guess Catagory 4 at landfall mostly because the water in the north Gulf doesn't have as much heat content and because shear is supposed to be kicking up, still a very dangerous storm(lets not forget that Katrina wasn't even a Cat 5 at landfall).

**HiltonMagic** · 08-30-2008, 07:20 PM

What's scary is that it is already a Cat 4 and it hasn't even reached the Gulf

**jakemcilroy** · 08-30-2008, 07:25 PM

Hurricane Gustav Notes, Stats, Facts

good link for updates.

**jumbopackage** · 08-30-2008, 07:27 PM

I'm supposed to go to Gulfport next week for work

There's a part of me that really wants to go anyway, but I'm guessing it's not going to happen.

**ajk4st8** · 08-30-2008, 07:29 PM

Is it possible that this thing can bring rain to us next Saturday?

**matmann22** · 08-30-2008, 07:47 PM

It is possible the remmants of Gustav could be pulled as for North as Eastern Iowa. At least 2 computer models are showing this, but several arent. The Des Moines National weather service office has mentioned this for the past 2 days in their forecast discussions and it is factored into there forecast

The weather feature that would do it is the large high pressure system that is of to our East. Its Clockwise flow could drag Gustav's remmants in a 'C' type path up into the upper Midwest.

There is a modern weather station in Pinar del Rio, Cuba that recorded wind gusts over 200 before the instrument 'broke'.

That ragged looking eye isn't a signal of much. It maybe going through an Eyewall Replacement Cycle but all the other signs have this thing easily hitting Cat 5 sometime tomorrow.

More and More of the computer models (the 0 zulu computer model runs are just now available and are really buying this) are showing a more eastword track that is the worst case scenario for New Orleans.

The one fortunte thing for us oil consumers is that all the repaired stuf that was damaged by Katrina/Rita was greatly strengthened. Unfortunately, we cant get around the shutdowns and evacuations.

This track has been fairly consistent from what was portrayed during the trading day on Friday. I would say a bump to $4 or $4.25 is likely in the short term but $5 is a big fear monger job.

**Iastfan112** · 08-30-2008, 07:52 PM

Originally Posted by HiltonMagic

What's scary is that it is already a Cat 4 and it hasn't even reached the Gulf

NW Caribbean is actually a prime place for storms to explode, very very warm waters, usually a lower shear area so its hardly surprising, same area that Dennis, Wilma, Emily, Ivan have really gotten cranking at.

**Iastfan112** · 08-30-2008, 07:55 PM

Originally Posted by ajk4st8

Is it possible that this thing can bring rain to us next Saturday?

Some models say it may come this way as matmann22 has already said but others suggest it curls back into the gulf sometime next week. Depends on the strength of the high as well as possible interaction with it weak little sister(for now) Hanna.

**matmann22** · 08-30-2008, 08:09 PM

Ray Nagin just officially STOMPED on the panic button in New Orleans...

"The mother of all storms'' and "Ya need to get your butts outta New Orleans and "You need to be scared" and "Make sure you have an axe"

Mandatory evacuations start at 8 am Sunday.

We have new recon data on Gustav coming in ...Cat 5 upgrade coming soon... BTW, those crazies that fly the hurricane recon missions are insane !

I would get all your 'fun' stuff in tomorrow because you wont want to be on the wrong side of the PC crowd and the mourning of the end of New Orleans - a city almost entirely below sea level...

**Iastfan112** · 08-30-2008, 08:12 PM

Originally Posted by matmann22

Ray Nagin just officially STOMPED on the panic button in New Orleans...

"The mother of all storms'' and "Ya need to get your butts outta New Orleans and "You need to be scared" and "Make sure you have an axe"

Mandatory evacuations start at 8 am Sunday.

We have new recon data on Gustav coming in ...Cat 5 upgrade coming soon... BTW, those crazies that fly the hurricane recon missions are insane !

I would get all your 'fun' stuff in tomorrow because you wont want to be on the wrong side of the PC crowd and the mourning of the end of New Orleans - a city almost entirely below sea level...

I keep hoping it'll take the left turn in the gulf some models suggest and hit a less populated zone but I'd agree that it both looks more likely that it'll be in New Orleans area and that it would be very very stupid to stick around in town right now.

Interesting thing about the storm the eye looks terrible on satellite but despite that its actually is strengthening with a pressure of 930 mb now. I'm intrigued on what the NHC will say at there next update(11pm EST 10 Central