Official Winter Storm Thread for 12/21 - 12/26

[rdubbs]

Well this should make our trip to see my wife's family in Nebraska a whole lot of fun.

[CycloneErik]

Dear God just let me get on my plane to Jamaica the 28th.

I had the chance to teach in Jamaica in January instead of June, but I just didn't feel comfortable enough guaranteeing that I could get out of Iowa.

[cyfanatic]

I like this link...radar for the entire country on one page:

NWS - National Mosaic Enhanced Radar Image: Full Resolution Loop

[MNCyGuy]

well...****. There goes the plan of driving up to MN wed night. I suppose not going home at all is one way of solving the problem of keeping both the family and in-laws happy.

[Bader]

Awesome, I'm supposed to fly from Minneapolis to Moline the night of the 24th

[tejasclone]

From the forecasts that I have seen, it looks like Tuesday night in Iowa will just be rain/freezing rain/some snow. Is that pretty much the consensus?

[MNCyGuy]

From the forecasts that I have seen, it looks like Tuesday night in Iowa will just be rain/freezing rain/some snow. Is that pretty much the consensus?

Which still sucks for me, because driving on icy roads in freezing rain tuesday night isn't exactly getting out ahead of the weather.

[tejasclone]

Which still sucks for me, because driving on icy roads in freezing rain tuesday night isn't exactly getting out ahead of the weather.

I agree. We were going to leave at 4 am Tuesday in order to get to Ames by 9 pm, but if there's going to be freezing rain, I want no part of that. So now we are leaving this afternoon and driving overnight. Hurray.

[matmann22]

Where is the 'bust' potential in this forecast ?

It is pretty much a given that a large CYCLONE with an abnormal amount of moisture is going to be in the Central U.S for a few days, but what failure point in the forecast is more likely ?

A) The storm is late

B) The temps are a little above what we think now

C) The temps are a little below what we think now

D) THe storm tracks in a different spot.

E) The storm is much weaker than thought

I think the toughest part of this forecast is going to be the depth of the cold layer at the surface.

Given 850 mb temperatures comfortably above freezing for the beginning of this event (in Central Iowa), what impact is the substantial snow pack going to have on near surface temperatures ? Is this something the computer models can handle or do they have to use local rules to adjust for this ?

My 'fear' is that this has the makings of a repeat of the EPIC 1993 ice storm that saw over an inch of freezing rain in Sioux City before the wind picked up and 6 inches of wet snow fell on top of that.

I'm a little out of the mainstream with this because I think the heavier snow is further West, but if you live in far NW Iowa, SE South Dakota or NE Nebraska. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see 18 inch snow totals with 2 feet or more in a few isolated spots with Blizzard conditions expected.

[chuckd4735]

From the forecasts that I have seen, it looks like Tuesday night in Iowa will just be rain/freezing rain/some snow. Is that pretty much the consensus?

You make it sound like that is no big deal. I would rather have 6 inches of snow than 1/10 inch of ice.

[MNCyGuy]

Where is the 'bust' potential in this forecast ?

It is pretty much a given that a large CYCLONE with an abnormal amount of moisture is going to be in the Central U.S for a few days, but what failure point in the forecast is more likely ?

A) The storm is late

B) The temps are a little above what we think now

C) The temps are a little below what we think now

D) THe storm tracks in a different spot.

E) The storm is much weaker than thought

I think the toughest part of this forecast is going to be the depth of the cold layer at the surface.

Given 850 mb temperatures comfortably above freezing for the beginning of this event (in Central Iowa), what impact is the substantial snow pack going to have on near surface temperatures ? Is this something the computer models can handle or do they have to use local rules to adjust for this ?

My 'fear' is that this has the makings of a repeat of the EPIC 1993 ice storm that saw over an inch of freezing rain in Sioux City before the wind picked up and 6 inches of wet snow fell on top of that.

I'm a little out of the mainstream with this because I think the heavier snow is further West, but if you live in far NW Iowa, SE South Dakota or NE Nebraska. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see 18 inch snow totals with 2 feet or more in a few isolated spots with Blizzard conditions expected.

I'm praying for this. There just isn't much leeway for us to leave sooner than we had planned. If it could somehow just delay a day or so, I'd be very happy.

[Cyclonesrule91]

QT Weather 5 day precipitation map....

QT Information Systems - Weather

3.6" for Des Moines is anywhere from 18-36" of snow depending on how cold it is.

[cyfanatic]

You make it sound like that is no big deal. I would rather have 6 inches of snow than 1/10 inch of ice.

Agree...if we get ice it could be a long tough holiday week! Power outages, roads a disaster, etc. Give us snow if we are going to get anything...

[bawbie]

QT Weather 5 day precipitation map....

QT Information Systems - Weather

3.6" for Des Moines is anywhere from 18-36" of snow depending on how cold it is.

actually, it's anywhere from 0-36" inches of snow, depending on how cold it is.

the current forecasts seem to indicate it will be straight rain for at least some period of time.

[garn91]

I don't know if this is accurate or not, but AccuWeather.com Weather Alarm shows the following happening for Ankeny:

AccuWeather.com - Ankeny, IA - 15 Day Weather Forecast - Local Weather Forecasts

WeatherAlarm™!
Snow occurring on Dec 23 | Dec 24 | Dec 25. Total amount 10.7 Inches.
Heavy rain occurring on Dec 23 | Dec 24. Total amount 0.54 Inches.
Ice occurring on Dec 22 | Dec 23. Total amount 0.7 Inches.
High wind occurring on Dec 24 | Dec 25. Maximum sustained 32 mph (maximum gust 46 mph).