Stock Market - Timing is EVERYTHING

**CyCy** · 02-08-2010, 10:10 PM

I own some individual stocks (mostly preferred and high dividend), but I have had more success over the years using mutual funds. I try to pick funds with long term records for beating the market and stay with them unless their relative performance starts to drop. I don't buy or sell very often.

**cyclonenum1** · 02-09-2010, 01:18 PM

Originally Posted by jamesfnb

"So what are investors to do? Although recent studies and market history present a powerful argument against simply buying and holding stocks, they also teach us that there are short periods of intense gains and losses scattered within the meager long-term results.

It's how you stand in these fleeting moments of history that determines your financial fate"

Stocks' real return; problems with buy-and-hold investing - MSN Money

Great article! For those that have seen my posts and wonder how I know what I know (well most probably think I'm full of poo), above is part of my secret. Buying and holding stocks is for the birds, timing is everything, and yes, the market can definately be timed.

Without posting my personal stock market returns over the last 15 years, I guess you'll have to believe me when I say I am VERY happy my returns.

James-

I'm curious as to your profession / line of work? Thanks.

**cyclonenum1** · 02-09-2010, 01:20 PM

Originally Posted by Phaedrus

It might be because market timing is not successful, long term. Just like gamblers, market timers only brag about their successes, not their failures.

Wanna know something? I just made a bunch of money by dollar cost averaging through the last market downturn. While simultaneously buying and holding. I'm liking my life just fine, thank you very much.

Advocating market timing is as much "help" as advocating buying lottery tickets.

I think the majority of studies and educated professionals agree that market timing is less successful than buying and holding.

**cyclonenum1** · 02-09-2010, 01:22 PM

Originally Posted by jamesfnb

You couldn't be anymore wrong, but I'm ok with that. Without people who like to buy and hold, I couldn't do what I do. So I appreciate it. Thanks.

You seem awfully certain. You do realize that most professionals in the business of investing would disagree with you...including one Warren Buffett.

**cyclonenum1** · 02-09-2010, 01:23 PM

Originally Posted by JHutch

Buy low, sell high. it's a simple game

Yep...but the catch is knowing when it is high and when it is low...you only know that after it has happened and you can look at it retrospectively.

**cyclonenum1** · 02-10-2010, 07:37 AM

Originally Posted by StLouisClone

So when do you think we'll see Dow 10,000 again?

A) Later this week or next week?
B) Next month?
C) Two years?
D) Ten years?
E) Twenty years?

I'll be the first one to take (E). I think the U.S. is following the same path as Japan. The NIKKEI hit 40,000 in 1990 and currently sits at just under 10,000. And Japan is a country full of savers. Why should things be any different in the U.S.?

2/9/10...the Dow rose 150.25 points (1.5%) to close at 10,058.64.

What do I win?

Man, I'm good!

**Cyclonepride** · 02-10-2010, 07:41 AM

My best luck (in the stock market game) was looking for stocks which had huge declines to start the day (upwards of 20%) which seemed fundamentally sound. I'd check the top 10 decliners about an hour in, jump on the best looking one (the most inexplicable one- no bad news of any kind), and set my sell price at +3%, because they almost always bounced a little. Do that once a day, and you end up with quite a gain over the long term. In the one game, I doubled my initial money in a couple months. In the second one, I latched on to a few that didn't bounce, and then go stubborn and held on to them, so I didn't do so well.

**JY07** · 02-10-2010, 07:44 AM

Originally Posted by Cyclonepride

My best luck (in the stock market game) was looking for stocks which had huge declines to start the day (upwards of 20%) which seemed fundamentally sound. I'd check the top 10 decliners about an hour in, jump on the best looking one (the most inexplicable one- no bad news of any kind), and set my sell price at +3%, because they almost always bounced a little. Do that once a day, and you end up with quite a gain over the long term. In the one game, I doubled my initial money in a couple months. In the second one, I latched on to a few that didn't bounce, and then go stubborn and held on to them, so I didn't do so well.

Dead cat bounce - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia