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02-08-2010, 02:25 PM
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#1 | | Starter
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 623
Credits: 6,750,217 |  Stock Market - Timing is EVERYTHING | |
"So what are investors to do? Although recent studies and market history present a powerful argument against simply buying and holding stocks, they also teach us that there are short periods of intense gains and losses scattered within the meager long-term results. It's how you stand in these fleeting moments of history that determines your financial fate" Stocks' real return; problems with buy-and-hold investing - MSN Money
Great article! For those that have seen my posts and wonder how I know what I know (well most probably think I'm full of poo), above is part of my secret. Buying and holding stocks is for the birds, timing is everything, and yes, the market can definately be timed.
Without posting my personal stock market returns over the last 15 years, I guess you'll have to believe me when I say I am VERY happy my returns.
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King James
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02-08-2010, 02:31 PM
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#2 | | Addict
Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Waterloo, Iowa
Posts: 5,383
Credits: 10,322,402 Degree: Ag Business MLB: Cubs | Re: Stock Market - Timing is EVERYTHING | |
Come back in 30 years and tell this story and I'll be impressed....
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02-08-2010, 02:32 PM
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#3 | | Rookie
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 526
Credits: 3,939,061 | Re: Stock Market - Timing is EVERYTHING | |
It's definately an active trader's market out there.
"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful."
--Warren Buffett
^A great motto to live by
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ISU ROCKS!!!!
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02-08-2010, 02:32 PM
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#4 | | Addict
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 8,014
Credits: 9,511,393 | Re: Stock Market - Timing is EVERYTHING | |
People are very happy when they win a lottery also.
Some people are bound to be lucky and attribute their stock timing results to intellect or to some near infallible system. The facts are that the most successful investors made their fortunes from superior equity selection and not from timing the market in general.
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"If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts." Albert Einstein
"If your worried about falling off the bike, you'd never get on" Lance Armstrong
"Dress cute wherever you go, life is too short to blend in." Paris Hilton
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02-08-2010, 02:40 PM
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#5 | | Starter
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 623
Credits: 6,750,217 | Re: Stock Market - Timing is EVERYTHING | |
Why does a person get attacked for trying to help?
Sorry for trying. Have a nice life people.
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King James
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02-08-2010, 02:40 PM
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#6 | | Addict
Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: North Side...of Johnston
Posts: 6,956
Credits: 110,105,561 | Re: Stock Market - Timing is EVERYTHING | |
There is academic support for this idea. Mebane Faber, a portfolio manager at Cambria Investment Management in California, tested how the strategy would've worked between 1900 and 2008. The model's nominal (non-inflation-adjusted) average annual return outpaced that of a buy-and-hold strategy by 1.3 percentage points. | | | |
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02-08-2010, 02:42 PM
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#7 | | Pro
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,705
Credits: 7,328,323 | Re: Stock Market - Timing is EVERYTHING | |
Originally Posted by jamesfnb  Why does a person get attacked for trying to help?
Sorry for trying. Have a nice life people. Well, you did start by lobbing a backhand insult to most people on this board (i.e. 401k holders): buy-and-hold is for the birds
But, I think Alaskaguy has a good point. It's selection more than timing that builds wealth.
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02-08-2010, 02:43 PM
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#8 | | Recruit
Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: '72 Winnebago
Posts: 94
Credits: 6,805,141 Degree: Yes | Re: Stock Market - Timing is EVERYTHING | |
Very interesting article. Thanks for posting.
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02-08-2010, 02:46 PM
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#9 | | Addict
Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Iraq
Posts: 5,037
Credits: 8,314,734 Year: 1987 Degree: History NFL: Rams | Re: Stock Market - Timing is EVERYTHING | |
Originally Posted by jamesfnb Why does a person get attacked for trying to help?
Sorry for trying. Have a nice life people. It might be because market timing is not successful, long term. Just like gamblers, market timers only brag about their successes, not their failures.
Wanna know something? I just made a bunch of money by dollar cost averaging through the last market downturn. While simultaneously buying and holding. I'm liking my life just fine, thank you very much.
Advocating market timing is as much "help" as advocating buying lottery tickets.
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I'm baaack! See my Hot Milk For Breakfast blog under Social Groups for more details
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02-08-2010, 02:47 PM
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#10 | | Rookie
Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Madison, WI
Posts: 489
Credits: 41,717,600 | Re: Stock Market - Timing is EVERYTHING | |
So are you long or short the market at this point?
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"In the immortal words of Jean Paul Sartre, "Au revoir, gopher."" - Carl Spackler
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02-08-2010, 02:56 PM
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#11 | | Starter
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 623
Credits: 6,750,217 | Re: Stock Market - Timing is EVERYTHING | |
Originally Posted by Bobber Come back in 30 years and tell this story and I'll be impressed....
The last thing I'm trying to do is impress Bobber. I'm just trying to inform. It's a great method handed down to me by father who learned it from my grandfather.
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King James
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02-08-2010, 02:57 PM
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#12 | | Starter
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 623
Credits: 6,750,217 | Re: Stock Market - Timing is EVERYTHING | |
Originally Posted by Phaedrus It might be because market timing is not successful, long term. Just like gamblers, market timers only brag about their successes, not their failures.
Wanna know something? I just made a bunch of money by dollar cost averaging through the last market downturn. While simultaneously buying and holding. I'm liking my life just fine, thank you very much.
Advocating market timing is as much "help" as advocating buying lottery tickets.
You couldn't be anymore wrong, but I'm ok with that. Without people who like to buy and hold, I couldn't do what I do. So I appreciate it. Thanks.
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King James
Last edited by jamesfnb; 02-08-2010 at 03:02 PM.
Reason: k
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02-08-2010, 02:58 PM
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#13 | | Addict
Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Waterloo, Iowa
Posts: 5,383
Credits: 10,322,402 Degree: Ag Business MLB: Cubs | Re: Stock Market - Timing is EVERYTHING | |
Originally Posted by jamesfnb The last thing I'm trying to do is impress Bobber. I'm just trying to inform. It's a great method handed down to me by father who learned it from my grandfather. You've proven that over and over.
Glad you don't need that kind of attention...
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02-08-2010, 03:00 PM
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#14 | | Starter
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 623
Credits: 6,750,217 | Re: Stock Market - Timing is EVERYTHING | |
Originally Posted by Bobber You've proven that over and over.
Glad you don't need that kind of attention...
OUCH. Did I pee in your cheerios one time and didn't realize it?
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King James
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02-08-2010, 03:01 PM
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#15 | | Rookie
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 526
Credits: 3,939,061 | Re: Stock Market - Timing is EVERYTHING | |
Buy low, sell high. it's a simple game
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ISU ROCKS!!!!
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