Don't Punt!

[Senolcyc]

I know this has been brought up before, but maybe if Van Der Kamp can't get it done, iowa state could look into a philosophy like this!

YouTube - ‪High School Team That Doesn't Punt - NFL Films Presents‬‎

The high school himself has said it doesn't make any sense at any higher level where you have good punters. The math doesn't hold up.

[cyclones500]

For those of you who didn't watch the video, if you fail to get a first down when you are on your own 10 yard line, they have a 92% chance of scoring. If you punt it and they get the ball on the 50, they have a 75% chance of scoring. Are you really that much better off? .... But what if you get the first down?

That's where it'd be nice to have a parallel-universe comparison — how many times would a team that chose to punt convert on 4th down in that situation? That is, even if the percentages are 92-75, it could even out over the long haul with those 4th-down conversions.

Another aspect is (and maybe the video addresses this, too — I suppose I could just watch it ) -- if you have that never-punt game plan, how does that change how you approach your defensive plan? You risk putting the defense in situations with less field-position cushion. They'd have to be coached to expect that.

[besserheimerphat]

The high school himself has said it doesn't make any sense at any higher level where you have good punters. The math doesn't hold up.

All of the studies I've seen were performed using NFL data from 2000 - 2008. I hear those guys have some pretty good punters. I think the more important issue is that there is much more even distribution of talent in the NFL. In high school, if you have 1 - 2 legitimate D1 talents on the team then you will win 90% of the time just due to superior athletic talent. In the NFL, the difference between the best and worst players at each position is probably only like 2-3%.

I think it makes the most sense in the NFL, where talent is consistent and you can't just physically outmatch your opponent. In the NFL you have to use every possible coaching advantage because every team is full of talent. How much does it really take to coach Texas/Ohio State/USC to a BCS bowl?

[cyclones500]

The high school himself has said it doesn't make any sense at any higher level where you have good punters. The math doesn't hold up.

Some other links still claim something similar can work at all levels, but I still might not risk the no-punt inside my own 30.

In a less extreme view (and sort of unrelated) I think punting is overrated in some circumstances. At college level, automatically punting when you're in opponent's territory with less than 5 yards for a first down doesn't appeal to me, unless your punt team can consistently pin the other team inside the 5. Might as well load one side of the formation and throw a hail-mary pass inside the 10.

[besserheimerphat]

That's where it'd be nice to have a parallel-universe comparison — how many times would a team that chose to punt convert on 4th down in that situation? That is, even if the percentages are 92-75, it could even out over the long haul with those 4th-down conversions.

Another aspect is (and maybe the video addresses this, too — I suppose I could just watch it ) -- if you have that never-punt game plan, how does that change how you approach your defensive plan? You risk putting the defense in situations with less field-position cushion. They'd have to be coached to expect that.

You wouldn't normally coach your defense to defend a 1st and goal situation? Or against a 1st and 10 on their own 20 yard line?

[Bipolarcy]

This may work in high school but I think giving up the ball on your own 20 at the college level, you're asking for trouble. The talent level increases considerably when you're playing DI football...even if you're one of the "weaker teams". In an evenly matched game, field position is key. Unless it's 4th and 2 on the opponent's side of the field, you're risking giving up key field position.

I can only imagine coaches going for it on 4th down in their own territory if
1) the game's on the line and you need to convert, in which case you really have no choice
or 2) you have TONS of confidence in both your offense and defense, to either convert on 4th or to stop the other team from scoring in a short field.

And even if you think you're doing something like Texas vs some small FBS school, you're talking about catching flak for "unsportsmanlike" conduct by going for it on 4th down when you're up by 45 in the 4th quarter.

I think you're missing the point. That high school coach is saying he's willing to concede a TD to the other team if he goes for it on his own 5-yard-line and fails because chances are they will score anyway if he punts. The differences in percentages of the other team scoring from the 5 or scoring from the 30 or 40 are not great enough to justify the punt in his mind.

[cyclones500]

You wouldn't normally coach your defense to defend a 1st and goal situation? Or against a 1st and 10 on their own 20 yard line?

Good point. I guess my question was, would you prepare differently if those situations were at risk of happening much more frequently?

Maybe the fourth-down conversion percentages make it moot.

[CarolinaCy]

You wouldn't normally coach your defense to defend a 1st and goal situation? Or against a 1st and 10 on their own 20 yard line?

I think he's saying you'd have to prepare your defense mentally to be put in some really bad situations once in a while. Let's face it, most defensive players don't expect their offense to go for it on 4th-and-4 from their own 26 yard line. It would take a while to change the mindset of the team, not to mention the fans, who would likely think their coach was an idiot for not punting.

[besserheimerphat]

I think he's saying you'd have to prepare your defense mentally to be put in some really bad situations once in a while. Let's face it, most defensive players don't expect their offense to go for it on 4th-and-4 from their own 26 yard line. It would take a while to change the mindset of the team, not to mention the fans, who would likely think their coach was an idiot for not punting.

Totally agree here. It's (obviously) difficult to get people to even consider the idea, let alone accept trying it.

[Senolcyc]

All of the studies I've seen were performed using NFL data from 2000 - 2008. I hear those guys have some pretty good punters. I think the more important issue is that there is much more even distribution of talent in the NFL. In high school, if you have 1 - 2 legitimate D1 talents on the team then you will win 90% of the time just due to superior athletic talent. In the NFL, the difference between the best and worst players at each position is probably only like 2-3%.

I think it makes the most sense in the NFL, where talent is consistent and you can't just physically outmatch your opponent. In the NFL you have to use every possible coaching advantage because every team is full of talent. How much does it really take to coach Texas/Ohio State/USC to a BCS bowl?

Sorry, I have no phantom studies to reference. Saw the coach interviewed, he said if he had a punter who could kick it 40 yards every time, he would have never considered the concept.

[CarolinaCy]

Sorry, I have no phantom studies to reference. Saw the coach interviewed, he said if he had a punter who could kick it 40 yards every time, he would have never considered the concept.

Here's one:

http://www.econ.berkeley.edu/users/d..._CORRECTED.pdf

And here's the conclusion, summarized of course:

"Romer put the opening quarters of all NFL games from 1998 to 2004 into a database, then analyzed when coaches ordered punts, when they went for it, and how these decisions had an impact on field position on subsequent possessions. Here are Romer's three key conclusions. First, inside the opponent's 45, go for a first down on any fourth-and-7 or less, unless a field goal would decide the game. Second, inside the opponent's 33, go for a first down on fourth-and-10 or less, unless a field goal decides. In Romer's sample years there were 1,068 fourth downs in which the above formulas said go for the first down, yet NFL coaches kicked all but 109 times -- meaning they went for it only about 10 percent as often as they should have. Finally, Romer's numbers say that an NFL team should try for the first down on any fourth-and-4 or less, regardless of where the ball is on the field. Of course some fourth-down tries would go down in flames and even create easy scores for the other side. But over the course of a season of rarely punting, Romer maintains, the team that eschewed the punt would score more than it otherwise would, while its opponents would score less."

[Bigman38]

The reason that NFL teams will never adopt a strategy that involves going for it on fourth down is that the fault will be placed solely on thier shoulders. A coach will get a lot more bad press for failing on a fourth down than punting the ball away and still losing.

[besserheimerphat]

Sorry, I have no phantom studies to reference. Saw the coach interviewed, he said if he had a punter who could kick it 40 yards every time, he would have never considered the concept.

I posted multiple links to sources earlier. I didn't feel the need to link in every post. There were no phantom studies, just statistical analyses of actual games, with data taken from the official NFL play-by-play records from the 2000 - 2008 seasons. If you didn't want to read them, fine. Most people won't. But don't tell me I don't have any facts when I presented multiple sources.

Edit: The links are located in post 15, at the bottom of the first page of this thread.

[Senolcyc]

I posted multiple links to sources earlier. I didn't feel the need to link in every post. There were no phantom studies, just statistical analyses of actual games, with data taken from the official NFL play-by-play records from the 2000 - 2008 seasons. If you didn't want to read them, fine. Most people won't. But don't tell me I don't have any facts when I presented multiple sources.

Edit: The links are located in post 15, at the bottom of the first page of this thread.

Obviously I didn't see links. I saw your reply to me, with no links. Fair enough.