Hardest thing to do in baseball

**Doc** · 05-09-2012, 12:43 PM

Some VERY rough, simplified numbers. Calcs may be wrong, plus I don't know statistics well enough to do some of these very accurately. The thing about the cycle is that it's happened about 12x as much as the perfect game, but players have 9x as many chances to do it. It's probably comparable to the perfect game in terms of difficulty. I think getting 20Ks is probably more difficult than both, but am having trouble with the calc. Assume 30% K-Rate and a number of batters per game, and it should be done pretty easily...

Perfect Game
Average players' OBP ~ .320
Chance of perfect game: (1-.320)^27 = 1 in 33,000

4 HRs in A Row
Great Hitter HR Percentage ~ 10%
Chance of 4 HRs in a Row: .10^4 = 1 in 10,000 (odds get easier with more at-bats in game)

Calling a Shot
Great Hitter HR Percentage ~ 10%
Pitches Per At-Bat ~ 4
1 in 400 (assuming no effect on pitcher. Also, odds will go up if batter selects a 2-0 or 3-0 count to call his shot)

Cycle in 4 At-Bats
HR Percentage ~ 7%
3B Percentage ~ 1%
2B Percentage ~ 7%
1B Percentage ~ 20%
(.07*.01*.07*.20) 1 in 100,000 (will go down in a hurry with more than 4 at-bats in the game)

**Clark** · 05-09-2012, 12:58 PM

The 20K game is the hardest one (I'm not counting the calling your shot one because nobody even tries it. Kinda hard to determine the difficulty if nobody even attempts it).

Not only would a pitcher have to face a minimum of twenty batters, he also has to actually have the stuff to strike out twenty people. You can throw a perfect game with marginal stuff.

**Naughtius** · 05-09-2012, 01:07 PM

Was going to say 4 HRs/game, but good luck hitting a dinger after calling your shot, especially when the next pitch is at your ear hole.

**Naughtius** · 05-09-2012, 01:18 PM

Chuck Norris hits leadoff grand slams. Just sayin'

**oldman** · 05-09-2012, 01:22 PM

Originally Posted by Clark

The 20K game is the hardest one (I'm not counting the calling your shot one because nobody even tries it. Kinda hard to determine the difficulty if nobody even attempts it).

Not only would a pitcher have to face a minimum of twenty batters, he also has to actually have the stuff to strike out twenty people. You can throw a perfect game with marginal stuff.

When Kerry Wood did it vs Astros, Riggleman kept him in, even though his pitch count was really getting up there. Nowadays, because the coaches watch that so closely, we might never see it again.

**cyhiphopp** · 05-09-2012, 01:24 PM

I think a Perfect Game is tougher than 4 homers though because it requires so much more effort and there are so many more factors in play. You have to have defense behind you and you have to best the entire other team, not just a few pitchers like a 4 HR game.

Both are tough as crap though, and a 4 HR game can be ruined by a decision to just walk a guy (or plunk him).

**3TrueFans** · 05-09-2012, 01:24 PM

but good luck hitting a dinger after calling your shot, especially when the next pitch is at your ear hole.

Lol, this is a contingency I hadn't thought of.

**cyhiphopp** · 05-09-2012, 01:25 PM

Originally Posted by Clark

The 20K game is the hardest one (I'm not counting the calling your shot one because nobody even tries it. Kinda hard to determine the difficulty if nobody even attempts it).

Not only would a pitcher have to face a minimum of twenty batters, he also has to actually have the stuff to strike out twenty people. You can throw a perfect game with marginal stuff.

Just like Humber. Marginal stuff, but excellent control and pitch location on one night in particular.

Then he got shelled in his next start.

**cyhiphopp** · 05-09-2012, 01:27 PM

Originally Posted by oldman

When Kerry Wood did it vs Astros, Riggleman kept him in, even though his pitch count was really getting up there. Nowadays, because the coaches watch that so closely, we might never see it again.

Yeah, I would rather have had 4 more years of Kerry Wood in his prime than a 20 K game and all of the other games he pitched too much too early.

**Clark** · 05-09-2012, 01:29 PM

Originally Posted by oldman

When Kerry Wood did it vs Astros, Riggleman kept him in, even though his pitch count was really getting up there. Nowadays, because the coaches watch that so closely, we might never see it again.

I remember that game well. He even had a no hitter going for much of it until that ******* third baseman misplayed a grounder. I'm still mad that wasn't scored an error.

**cyhiphopp** · 05-09-2012, 01:31 PM

Originally Posted by Clark

I remember that game well. He even had a no hitter going for much of it until that ******* third baseman misplayed a grounder. I'm still mad that wasn't scored an error.

Crap, who was that. I can't remember now.

**Clark** · 05-09-2012, 01:31 PM

Originally Posted by cyhiphopp

Yeah, I would rather have had 4 more years of Kerry Wood in his prime than a 20 K game and all of the other games he pitched too much too early.

He came back for the most part after that but I'll never forgive Dusty Baker for the damage he did to the Cubs organization. I hope he chokes on his toothpick.

**Cyballz** · 05-09-2012, 01:34 PM

Originally Posted by cyhiphopp

Crap, who was that. I can't remember now.

Kevin Orie

**Clark** · 05-09-2012, 01:35 PM

Originally Posted by cyhiphopp

Crap, who was that. I can't remember now.

Kevin Orie. Just another in a long line of stellar thirdbasemen for the Cubs in between Santo and Aramis.

**gocubs2118** · 05-09-2012, 01:35 PM

Originally Posted by cyhiphopp

Just like Humber. Marginal stuff, but excellent control and pitch location on one night in particular.

Then he got shelled in his next start.

He's gotten shelled every start since his perfect game. To throw a perfect game, you have to have an extreme amount of luck. Obviously it takes a lot of skill but it probably take more luck than any of the other ones listed.