I don't think so. Vikings hold all the chips.
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not really. they have a disgruntled prima donna who already only plays when he feels like it. If they do end up franchising him after this year, then they're paying top five money for a guy who would only need to play the minimum number of games for it to be considered a full season. Not to mention, the cap hit for a franchise tag impacts the salary cap immediately, meaning that if Minnesota is less than around $10 million under the cap, they won't be able to tag him. A franchised player at an expensive position can really hamstring a team if he wants to. there's plenty of incentive to not do it.
Of course, but the Vikings have plenty of time to prep for all that. The situations for the Vikings are as follows:
1. Harvin re-signs and stays healthy and is productive.
2. Trade Harvin now for a premium.
3. Not offered a premium, attempt to renegotiate but Harvin refuses and holds out, the Vikings don't play him for a year or until he gives in at the pittance that is his rookie contract, attempt to trade him but his value is now lower.
4. Harvin plays out his contract after holding out and the Vikings franchise him and attempt to trade him at that time for something in between the original premium and the lower value he had not playing at all.
5. Harvin sits out an entire year and walks as a FA (by far the worst for both teams and least likely)
define premium and tell us why anyone would or should give that.
Give examples of a team that 'fits'.
you're failing to account for the salary cap though, which could render Minnesota's biggest weapon, the franchise tag, useless. As it stands, Minnesota may not be able to afford to franchise Harvin, especially because they're expected to be a major player in free agency this year, and Jared Allen coming up for a new contract at the same time as Harvin. Their space just may not be there, especially for a team that has a fanbase with heightened expectations.
As an owner of Harvin in a keeper league (where I can keep him forever):
Please please please patriots please please please patriots patriots patriots
If they think they need to hold cap space they will. Who says they will be a major player? I haven't seen any actual speculation on that. They are building through the draft and are planning on continuing that. The only way I see them making a big play is if Harvin is gone. That frees up a ton of cap space. They have plenty right now, and saved it so they could extend Harvin. Allen is going to probably have his contract restructured in the next year or two or he will be gone. They like Robison and Griffin at DE and who knows where they will be at the end of the year next year. The front office will be smart and if the situation calls for cap room, they will keep it available.
A premium IMO is better than a 2nd and a 4th, or a mid to late round first. That would be an absolute steal for one of the top playmakers in the game.
Every team fits. Harvin is the best slot in the game.
New England- Belichick likes Harvin, he is more dynamic than Welker and more deserving of a big contract if he is on the field. NE loves taking on project character players, especially if he has elite talent.
San Fran- Have lots of picks (like 11 I think) and a talented roster already. Have an extremely versatile offense which Harvin would fit perfectly in as both a RB and a receiver.
Atlanta- Have cap room and have Tony Gonzalez retiring and need someone to operate underneath of Julio Jones and Roddy White.
Jacksonville- Lots of cap room, good draft picks to offer, in Florida.
Miami and KC are also listed.
I got most of that straight from this article: 2013 NFL offseason - Potential trade suitors for Percy Harvin - ESPN
I can copy paste PM it if you want to read it.
another solid draft(WR)(db) and a healthy AP and Percy, and you got yourself a ravens team that could get r done next year!
"hey percy, we have some offers on the table. want to see which teams are interested?"
"nah, i got a migrane"
I actually have to agree and say that if Harvin gets dealt, it should be for guys that will give Minnesota a chance to compete in the very near future. I say this because the #1 player in the league wears purple and he is getting older every day.
I am not sure if draft picks will do it or not.
Draft picks will do it because that is how teams are built, and the Vikings are still rebuilding. As awesome as Peterson is, more draft picks mean more opportunities to draft a cheap playmaker. There will always be opportunities to get individual talents, but building a good team requires time and lots of draft picks.
There are almost absolutely no player for player trades in the NFL, and whoever they would trade for Harvin would have a big contract. If you get a 2nd rounder you have an opportunity for a playmaker on a cheap contract, which still allows you to make a play in FA, where you won't have to trade anything for players. So you get both picks and proven players instead of just players. That's how the NFL machine works.
A 2nd round draft pick is a big value, but Harvin is worth more and I would expect Spielman to acquire at least a 2nd and multiple other picks or he will get a 1st. He won't trade him for less IMO.
As much as you hate to believe, the Vikings are still rebuilding. They had one player have an extremely great seaon, that is why they went to the playoffs. NFL teams hardly trade players for other players. The Vikings will probably get anywhere from a 2nd to a 4th, or combination of those, for Harvin.
Not 100% sure, but I think the Vikes already have the 2nd most picks in this year's draft. So they'll probably trade him for something like a 2nd and a 4th, at best. And, as luck would have it, this is considered a pretty crappy draft this year. Throw in the fact that Spielman actually had a pretty good draft last year, and we're pretty much screwed.