Statistics back Tiger dominance?

throwittoblythe · 04-10-2008, 10:25 AM

Saw this on ESPN this morning. I know you can pretty much make statistics say whatever you want them to if you manipulate them enough, but I did think it was pretty interesting...

Competing Against Superstars - Economics Blog - Zubin Jelveh - Odd Numbers - Portfolio.com

Basically, she found that when Tiger is in the field, other golfers' scores go up (+1 stroke). She suggests that Tiger's dominance is influencing how others play.

cys_av8r · 04-10-2008, 10:27 AM

I could see this. He often shoots some seriously low numbers and that forces the rest of the field to play aggressive and take chances they might not otherwise take.

keepngoal · 04-10-2008, 10:30 AM

Originally Posted by cys_av8r

I could see this. He often shoots some seriously low numbers and that forces the rest of the field to play aggressive and take chances they might not otherwise take.

that usually happens the day after. Usually Tiger tees of in the middle or late so CBS can get him on TV during better times. So most of the field has finished or is mostly through their round before he hits the turn.

I can see this +1 claim having merit to start the next day, after Tiger posts his score.

-keep.

LindenCy · 04-10-2008, 10:31 AM

One other possible solution (just a guess), is that Tiger plays in fewer tournaments, usually skipping the "easier", lower money ones, where scores may be better. I don't think this accounts for it all, but may contribute.

keepngoal · 04-10-2008, 10:31 AM

Originally Posted by LindenCy

One other possible solution (just a guess), is that Tiger plays in fewer tournaments, usually skipping the "easier", lower money ones, where scores may be better. I don't think this accounts for it all, but may contribute.

good point.

-keep

cys_av8r · 04-10-2008, 10:32 AM

Originally Posted by LindenCy

One other possible solution (just a guess), is that Tiger plays in fewer tournaments, usually skipping the "easier", lower money ones, where scores may be better. I don't think this accounts for it all, but may contribute.

Very good point. I would say this probably does contribute to it in some way.

throwittoblythe · 04-10-2008, 10:35 AM

They interviewed a sports psychologist on ESPN and he had a pretty good quote that was something like:

"Basically, you have to completely ignore Tiger, you can't let him affect how you play, he has to be absent from your mind because you are most certainly absent from his."

isuarch80 · 04-10-2008, 10:40 AM

Originally Posted by keepngoal

that usually happens the day after. Usually Tiger tees of in the middle or late so CBS can get him on TV during better times. So most of the field has finished or is mostly through their round before he hits the turn.

I can see this +1 claim having merit to start the next day, after Tiger posts his score.

-keep.

He only tees off later because he's near the top on Thurs & Fri, which tee times for the first two days are determined by a random draw... and if you tee off early on Thursday, you get the recipricol time in the afternoon on Friday... so I think that's a little less of a reason for this phenomenon.

Originally Posted by LindenCy

One other possible solution (just a guess), is that Tiger plays in fewer tournaments, usually skipping the "easier", lower money ones, where scores may be better. I don't think this accounts for it all, but may contribute.

I'm sure that plays into it greatly. Excellent opinion!

Clones85' · 04-10-2008, 10:50 AM

Originally Posted by LindenCy

One other possible solution (just a guess), is that Tiger plays in fewer tournaments, usually skipping the "easier", lower money ones, where scores may be better. I don't think this accounts for it all, but may contribute.

That was my thought process as well when I watched ESPN this morning. Most of the time, when he plays, it is the more difficult golf courses. He doesn't like getting into the tournaments where 20 under wins.

CloneAggie · 04-10-2008, 10:56 AM

She is controlling for most everything that you could think of using a panel structure at the golfer and tournament level. The controls include Year Dummy, Major Dummy, Yardage, Number of Rounds, Temperature, Wind Speed, Lagged Rainfall, Golf Course Dummies, Total Purse, Field Quality (minus Woods), World Ranking Points, whether someone has exempt status. So even after taking all of this into account, she still finds a significant effect of having Tiger in the field. She doesn't appear to control for order of tee off, although I'm sure she could look at the first two rounds only, where order is (I think) usually random.