Interesting read on Iowa football outlook...

SouthernHawk · 04-02-2008, 09:10 PM

Originally Posted by twittkop

Here's the thread with the early football predictions. http://www.cyclonefanatic.com/forum/...diction-2.html (Not the first or the last 2008 iowa state football prediction)

There were a few predictions of Big 12 North champs in 2-3 years...there were also some sarcastic predictions of a 12-0 regular season this year.

That's not one of the threads I was talking about, but reps for finding something. I'm just too lazy ;)

HawkHater · 04-02-2008, 09:38 PM

Originally Posted by SouthernHawk

Well, when a Senior has 3 years of experience over a talented freshman, I'd take the Senior. Also, Fletcher (Shada's replacement) showed a lot of promise last year, but he also had some Freshman mistakes.

Dude, if you do that you will be 500 or worse every year, Oh wait!!
Those fabulous 10 win seasons sure seem a long ways away, sustaining success is the hardest job a coach has, right now another 6 or seven win season and Kirky is feeling the heat.

Realistic Look at the Hawkeye Schedule

Aug. 30 Maine - W

Sep. 6th Florida Intl. W

Sep. 13th Iowa State W Close -- always go with home team - Hawk fans start make Pasadena reservations

Sep. 20 @ Pittsburgh L Program with lots of speed - Hawk Fans get drunk until Sunday night.

Sep. 27th Northwestern W A spread, but not a great one - Hawk Fans are happy but nervous -

Oct. 4th @ Michigan State W Close Game - W - Trailer courts across the state buy Wal Mart out of Hawkeye flags.

Oct. 11th @ Indiana L Spread Kills - Hawk Fans take down their shrines to Norm Parker in their garages.

Oct. 18th Wisconsin L Close Game but Wisconsin has too much - Hawk Fans start calling airlines to see if the tickets are transferrable

Nov. 1st at Illinois L Abused in Champagne - Hawk fans are now on prozac, just grunt when spoken too.

Nov. 8th Penn State W Joe's Last Year gets worse -- Hallelujah Hawk fans put their hawkeye hitch covers back on their trucks.

Nov. 15th Purdue TBA W Boilermakers in Tail Spin -- Hawk Fans now have tickets transferred to Florida, thinking Cap One

Nov. 22nd at Minnesota L Spread with speed kills you on the turf Hawk fans sells tickets on ebay, drive to Detroit Motor City bowl

Bowl season with 7 wins I could easily see 6 (Penn State would be an upset) - Maybe it turns out you get to 8, Hell San Antonio is not a bad place to be, unless you are supposed to be top 10 every year.

MontyBurns · 04-02-2008, 10:20 PM

That seems pretty optimistic. Iowa will probably be favored in 3 or at most 4 games this year.

Maine - easy win

Florida International - easy win

ISU - loss. As I've posted before, unless we turn the ball over on our end of the field, this one will be easy. I am greatly encouraged by the strength reports from our training camp that we will be able to push people around on offense, and Iowa's offense is impotent.

Pittsburgh - loss. First road game for Iowa at a team that beat West Virginia while Iowa was losing to Western Michigan.

Northwestern - win. Not big, Iowa won't score enough points to beat anyone big, but Northwestern looks like they're reverting to the Northwestern of old.

Michigan State - loss. Road game and MSU is a hungry team with with a chance at a good bowl game; they also have a 2nd year coach who now has had his system in place for a year.

Indiana - loss. May be closer than it's been in past years since IU lost Hardy, but Iowa cannot defend spread offenses with mobile QB's and strong passing attacks.

Wisconsin - loss. This game is usually close regardless of what the matchup looks like on paper but Wisconsin has won 2 in a row and is much better than Iowa.

Illinois - loss. Illinois recruited a LOT of talent and were young last year. They should be even better in 2008 although it might not show because their schedule is brutal with a lot of tough games, but Iowa is not one of them.

Penn State - loss. This game was a joke last year, about as competitive as a pee-wee team playing a college team. Even if it's closer this year, it won't be close. Iowa is eliminated from bowl eligibility. The www.firekirkferentz.com website records a record number of hits.

Purdue - loss. Boilermakers will be in a drive for a bowl game for Tiller's retirement year. This game was also a joke last year, see above.

Minnesota - win. This is the one team keeping Iowa and Northwestern out of last place in the Big Ten. Thank God there was nothing to the rumors of us considering Tim Brewster to be our coach. That guy is a wacko.

That's a 4-8 season. The Michigan State and Indiana games are the ones to watch that could get Iowa to 5-7 or 6-6 and a minor bowl game. It would be ugly if those teams were replaced with Michigan and Ohio State on the schedule. Real ugly.

HawkHater · 04-02-2008, 10:33 PM

I know Penn State is a big reach. I just see them upsetting somebody and Penn State or Wisconsin I think will happen. If you are right and ISU does win I think those 2 early losses could send them into a complete tailspin as we all hope. Either way I think if they don't get to 7 this might be the beginning of the end. Remember only 2 men in history had ever won at Iowa before Ferentz and by the time Hayden left they were God awful. Similar to our situation the true test of a coach is the ability to sustain success over a period of time. Ferentz is at a critical point, he built it from nothing but right now sustaining it is the issue.

Steve · 04-02-2008, 11:10 PM

Originally Posted by MontyBurns

Minnesota - win. This is the one team keeping Iowa and Northwestern out of last place in the Big Ten. Thank God there was nothing to the rumors of us considering Tim Brewster to be our coach. That guy is a wacko.

I agree with your assessment of Brewster, but I'll actually be surprised if his team doesn't handle Iowa next year. They outplayed the Hawks in Iowa City last year in most areas other than the final score.

The Gophers last year had a respectable offense, but couldn't stop anyone. There should be some improvement next year on defense with recruiting efforts focused on bringing in some guys who appear to be ready to contribute. The change in the D coordinator position should also be an upgrade. With the game in MN and no expected drop off on offense, I'm on record as expecting the Gophers to end the season on a high note followed by a melt down in Iowa City.

SouthernHawk · 04-03-2008, 12:30 AM

I just want to trow this out there - ISU's offense was ranked behind Iowa in almost every statistical category last year, and they lost more key players on offense. Couple that with the fact that Iowa's defense will be a major strong point, I don't see how you can predict an ISU win at Iowa as "easy" epecially when last year ISU failed to score a TD.

ISUCyclones · 04-03-2008, 12:43 AM

Originally Posted by SouthernHawk

Shada was a senior, and had more experience than the players behind him. Just because Shada started ahead of these guys doesn't mean he was better.

In 2001, Kyle McCann started in front of Brad Banks....

HAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Phaedrus · 04-03-2008, 01:37 AM

Originally Posted by SouthernHawk

I just want to trow this out there - ISU's offense was ranked behind Iowa in almost every statistical category last year, and they lost more key players on offense. Couple that with the fact that Iowa's defense will be a major strong point, I don't see how you can predict an ISU win at Iowa as "easy" epecially when last year ISU failed to score a TD.

"Failed to score a TD???" How about "Didn't NEED to score a TD."

You're ignoring the improvement throughout the year. I doubt they are anything near as chaotic as last year with the coaching change, etc..

I think we push Uof I around this year at their house.

Here's to an empty Kinnick stadium at the start of the 3d quarter, except for the 1000 "boo-birds" this season!

SouthernHawk · 04-03-2008, 01:47 AM

Originally Posted by Phaedrus

"Failed to score a TD???" How about "Didn't NEED to score a TD."

You're ignoring the improvement throughout the year. I doubt they are anything near as chaotic as last year with the coaching change, etc..

I think we push Uof I around this year at their house.

Here's to an empty Kinnick stadium at the start of the 3d quarter, except for the 1000 "boo-birds" this season!

Sure there was improvement. But remember, Iowa also improved (save the melt down against WMU). They won 4 of their last 6 games, while ISU won 2 of their last 4.

This isn't and Iowa vs. ISU thread. In fact, it's still waaaaay too early to even begin those sorts of predictions. Remember last year? ISU fans were over-confident, and then the season started, and were predicting a 50 point thrashing by the Hawks, and then ISU won. This rivalry is completely un-predictable.

And you're right, ISU didn't need to score a TD. And, as much as I hate to say it, it was kind of a cool story for the kicker. I mean, he missed how many game winning shots? Talk about a good rebound game.

Phaedrus · 04-03-2008, 06:48 AM

Originally Posted by SouthernHawk

ISU fans were over-confident, and then the season started, and were predicting a 50 point thrashing by the Hawks, and then ISU won.

Ummmm....what????

Not follerin' ya here at all.

dosry5 · 04-03-2008, 06:58 AM

Originally Posted by SouthernHawk

I just want to trow this out there - ISU's offense was ranked behind Iowa in almost every statistical category last year, and they lost more key players on offense. Couple that with the fact that Iowa's defense will be a major strong point, I don't see how you can predict an ISU win at Iowa as "easy" epecially when last year ISU failed to score a TD.

Umm....how about trowing this out there---ISU played in a tougher conference against tougher opponents. If EIU played in the Big 12 they'd be lower tier, at best..

cycloneace55 · 04-03-2008, 07:31 AM

That write up seemed so bleak about the outlook for the Hawkeyes this season I almost shed tears of happiness. When I was at ISU the Hawkeyes beat us all the time and the Iowa fans were very arrogant about it. Due to this I revel in anything that brings a little rain on their parade and knocks them back down a few notches. Sure it may be petty and immature but I don't care. I always enjoy it when they are fed a slice of humble pie, cuz I know that humble pie tastes like poo.

Gary_ISU · 04-03-2008, 12:51 PM

Originally Posted by SouthernHawk

Sure there was improvement. But remember, Iowa also improved (save the melt down against WMU). They won 4 of their last 6 games, while ISU won 2 of their last 4.

I think it is a stretch to say Iowa improved. They won some games but if you breakdown the results they were un-impressive wins against bad teams.

Nov. 17 L - total meltdown against WMU

Nov. 10 W - beat a bad Minny team 21-16, outgained 315 to 296

Nov. 3 W - beat Northwestern 28-17, outgained 393 to 369. NW threw interceptions on back to back plays in the 4th quarter.

Oct. 27 W - beat MSU 34-27 in OT. Outgained 468 to 283. MSU lead 17-3 at half and pissed it away.

Oct. 20 L - got beat 31-6 by Purdue. Outgained 436 to 254.

Oct. 13 W - beat Illinois 10-6. Had more total yards 323 to 287. This was a good quality win for Iowa.

I think Iowa was much worse than their 6-6 record would indicate. They were a couple plays away from 4-8. Iowa was consistenly dominated in the first half. Sports is all about winning so Iowa did improve in that aspect but were they a better team at the end of the season then the beginning. I think the answer is no.

SouthernHawk · 04-03-2008, 01:04 PM

Originally Posted by Gary_ISU

I think it is a stretch to say Iowa improved. They won some games but if you breakdown the results they were un-impressive wins against bad teams.

Nov. 17 L - total meltdown against WMU

Nov. 10 W - beat a bad Minny team 21-16, outgained 315 to 296

Nov. 3 W - beat Northwestern 28-17, outgained 393 to 369. NW threw interceptions on back to back plays in the 4th quarter.

Oct. 27 W - beat MSU 34-27 in OT. Outgained 468 to 283. MSU lead 17-3 at half and pissed it away.

Oct. 20 L - got beat 31-6 by Purdue. Outgained 436 to 254.

Oct. 13 W - beat Illinois 10-6. Had more total yards 323 to 287. This was a good quality win for Iowa.

I think Iowa was much worse than their 6-6 record would indicate. They were a couple plays away from 4-8. Iowa was consistenly dominated in the first half. Sports is all about winning so Iowa did improve in that aspect but were they a better team at the end of the season then the beginning. I think the answer is no.

I dunno, I consider "becoming a better team" a team that wins more as the season goes on. Iowa started 2-4, and finished 4-2. Stats are stats, but the defense helped the inept offense enough to get the wins.

Cyclonesrule91 · 04-03-2008, 01:08 PM

Originally Posted by SouthernHawk

I dunno, I consider "becoming a better team" a team that wins more as the season goes on. Iowa started 2-4, and finished 4-2. Stats are stats, but the defense helped the inept offense enough to get the wins.

By looking at Gary_ISU's post, it appears that in those last half of the season wins by EIU were because of the opposing teams sputtering offense and stupid mistakes except for the Illinois game.