Volvo Going Electric/Online Only By 2030

[isucy86]

All electric is a mistake long term. That's my two cents.

Every auto mfr seems to be jumping into electric. But over time will be curious if other clean energy sources are developed. There is so much negative press about coal, but even that industry is looking for technology solutions to make coal burning carbon neutral. Could see the same research by gas companies.

With electric cars, I would assume that in 10 years getting a full charge will be a quicker process. So maybe convenience stores will still have a role in customers "filling up". But I would expect most people will recharge their batteries at home.


Could also see charging stations in addition to parking meters in downtown areas. Maybe batteries will become replaceable like a propane cylinders. Kind of like the old days were a gas station attendant filled up the tank. Instead an attendant puts in a new fully charged battery. People and industries adapt pretty quickly.

 

[isucy86]

....

I can’t wait for Tesla to have real competition. I’m guessing at some point we won’t own our cars (we arguably don’t now) or at least batteries, and Big Tech will come to dominate management as at least 3rd party software.

The auto industry will be interesting over the next 20 years with the development of self-driving cars. I read a story about a year ago where this guy made the case that in the future most people won't own cars. The average person drives their car about 5% of the hours in a day. So it sits 95% of the time. His premise is most people will use car services like Uber or Lyft vs. owning a car.

 

[Sigmapolis]

The auto industry will be interesting over the next 20 years with the development of self-driving cars. I read a story about a year ago where this guy made the case that in the future most people won't own cars. The average person drives their car about 5% of the hours in a day. So it sits 95% of the time. His premise is most people will use car services like Uber or Lyft vs. owning a car.

Uber and Lyft are basically training us for this future --

Press a button, car appears, takes you wherever.

No need to own one. Supply always adapting to demand.

Anticipating that future is why they're willing to take such losses now.

 

[WhoISthis]

The auto industry will be interesting over the next 20 years with the development of self-driving cars. I read a story about a year ago where this guy made the case that in the future most people won't own cars. The average person drives their car about 5% of the hours in a day. So it sits 95% of the time. His premise is most people will use car services like Uber or Lyft vs. owning a car.

It will be interesting.
Cars will soon be part of the internet of things.

The no ownership future works better in other countries and big cities. But EV manufacturers have incentive to not sell away their actual commodity, energy storage batteries. And consumers have incentive to not buy cars/batteries with 400 miles of range when they only need it infrequently. When we lived in chicago full time we had a Hertz subscription that gave us access to an extra car anytime we needed one without any hassle (parking costs, insurance, etc). This is even easier if it comes to you with full self driving.

It’s kind of like any subscription service. Car manufacturers make more in the end, end users gain optionality. Tesla will likely sell self driving and batteries on a subscription imo. BMW tried to do this with seat heaters! EVs are modular, so you can swap packs and pay more in a monthly when you need 400 miles rather than 180.

The main commodity of Tesla are the batteries. This is particularly true if batteries become so long lasting you can cycle it for a million miles. Selling batteries that last decades for $5K (currently 8k) is super cheap. If Tesla were to maintain ownership, while also controlling the software that makes the car part of the IoT, Tesla becomes a large energy utility. It also solves their biggest bottleneck- battery production. Total Tesla battery GWs are more efficiently allocated.

You already don’t own the software on these cars. See John Deere. Hopefully that changes, but if it doesn’t and Tesla continues to be a POS with how everything voids warranty, then a company like Google or Apple coukd come to seek market share by providing 3rd party software and management of the car/batteries while providing a better warranty. Again, just another IoT. The amount of data coming off these things will also give auto insurance companies a run for their money. All of this again points to Tesla not selling the batteries/cars imo. Tough switch over to apple or Google when you don’t own the batteries or car.

 

[motorcy90]

You already don’t own the software on these cars. See John Deere. Hopefully that changes, but if it doesn’t and Tesla continues to be a POS with how everything voids warranty, then a company like Google or Apple coukd come to seek market share by providing 3rd party software and management of the car/batteries while providing a better warranty. Again, just another IoT. The amount of data coming off these things will also give auto insurance companies a run for their money. All of this again points to Tesla not selling the batteries/cars imo. Tough switch over to apple or Google when you don’t own the batteries or car.

you are seeing a lot of market push back currently from farmers on this factor. they are buying older models more and more or are using bootleg software from overseas for the newer machines.

 

[BCClone]

Electric cars need to have about $300-$500 extra license fee. Otherwise the roads will get worse than they are.

 

[dmclone]

Electric cars need to have about $300-$500 extra license fee. Otherwise the roads will get worse than they are.

If I remember correctly, Iowa is charging a $150 surcharge on BEV's in the next year or so. Plus they cost more and weigh more on average so that should help as well. I think the big question is what they are going to do with semi's. I'm far from an expert but I know someone at the DOT and he has talked about how semi's do the majority of damage to the roads because of weight.

 

[c.y.c.l.o.n.e.s]

And all if this massive increase in electricity demand is going to come from windmills and solar panels with absolutely no way to store it so it can be available for usage peaks... Sounds like a recipe for disaster to me.

 

[BCClone]

And all if this massive increase in electricity demand is going to come from windmills and solar panels with absolutely no way to store it so it can be available for usage peaks... Sounds like a recipe for disaster to me.

Looking at solar panels for a business again. (Looked about 9 years ago also) Two things to glean from it. One, companies like Alliant are extremely expensive compared to local co-ops (which I currently have). Two, there is no way for these projects to work without the 40% that the government gives you to do them.

 

[brianhos]

that's basically where we are today, or the very near future. A decade is a long time for something moving this quickly.

I've always heard that gas stations make most of their margin on snacks, drinks, etc rather than from actually selling gasoline. People will still need to eat even if cars are 100% electric. I find it hard to believe that gas stations (or other retail businesses) will not be able to equip with fast charging stations in the next decade.

Right, so you provide a place to relax, get a snack, whatever for the 30 min, and make your $$ that way.

 

[RedlineSi]

Reading this thread sort of confirm what I’ve seen from the general population and their complete lack of knowledge of how EVs work, especially the Tesla charger network, and their general lack of understanding how different cars will be in a decade.

 

[WhoISthis]

And all if this massive increase in electricity demand is going to come from windmills and solar panels with absolutely no way to store it so it can be available for usage peaks... Sounds like a recipe for disaster to me.

Umm, you do know that batteries in EVs are energy storage devices?

The massive increase in demand coming from EVs in combination with wind and solar isn’t a disaster, it’s the answer. Future EVs will be grid storage devices, allowing for the energy storage and arbitrage needed to support more wind and solar.

For example, in Texas demand falls at night but wind will remain strong. When do people charge their cars? At night. Problem solved.

Energy storage (batteries) development is one reason why investment in the turbine business has massively fallen off. Sorry GE investors

 

[isucy86]

Right, so you provide a place to relax, get a snack, whatever for the 30 min, and make your $$ that way.

I think some people get trapped in the narrow view of how things work today. Tesla has charging stations at HyVees because people are there 30-45 minutes typically. I live in a downtown area and can see some parking meters replaced by EV charging stations. Cities could make money off installing charging stations. Employers could add charging stations.

There are a lot of smart people out their and new business ideas arise out of opportunity. Heck, maybe portable charging stations will be developed and could show up to charge your vehicle. Again, it becomes much cheaper with driverless vehicles.

My only issue is that politicians and governments tend to want to pick winners and losers for political reasons vs. letting free market innovation take place.

 

[Neptune78]

It will be interesting.
Cars will soon be part of the internet of things.

The no ownership future works better in other countries and big cities. But EV manufacturers have incentive to not sell away their actual commodity, energy storage batteries. And consumers have incentive to not buy cars/batteries with 400 miles of range when they only need it infrequently. When we lived in chicago full time we had a Hertz subscription that gave us access to an extra car anytime we needed one without any hassle (parking costs, insurance, etc). This is even easier if it comes to you with full self driving.

It’s kind of like any subscription service. Car manufacturers make more in the end, end users gain optionality. Tesla will likely sell self driving and batteries on a subscription imo. BMW tried to do this with seat heaters! EVs are modular, so you can swap packs and pay more in a monthly when you need 400 miles rather than 180.

The main commodity of Tesla are the batteries. This is particularly true if batteries become so long lasting you can cycle it for a million miles. Selling batteries that last decades for $5K (currently 8k) is super cheap. If Tesla were to maintain ownership, while also controlling the software that makes the car part of the IoT, Tesla becomes a large energy utility. It also solves their biggest bottleneck- battery production. Total Tesla battery GWs are more efficiently allocated.

You already don’t own the software on these cars. See John Deere. Hopefully that changes, but if it doesn’t and Tesla continues to be a POS with how everything voids warranty, then a company like Google or Apple coukd come to seek market share by providing 3rd party software and management of the car/batteries while providing a better warranty. Again, just another IoT. The amount of data coming off these things will also give auto insurance companies a run for their money. All of this again points to Tesla not selling the batteries/cars imo. Tough switch over to apple or Google when you don’t own the batteries or car.

Seems like a lot to worry about. All the more reason why I'll keep my ICE cars.

 

[RedlineSi]

Huh? EV’s have so much less to worry about than an ICE vehicle.

 

[WhoISthis]

Seems like a lot to worry about. All the more reason why I'll keep my IEC cars.

From the investment industry side, a lot to worry about.

From the car user side, less. That’s the benefit of cars going away from the ownership model- less to worry about. Have you ever leased a vehicle? And much of it isn’t about EV vs ICE, although EVs are superior in the IoT/AI world. For example, BMW wanting seat heaters to be a monthly subscription service.

Regardless of EV, cars are becoming increasingly software and OTA update reliant. And the “worry” about not owning software has nothing to do with EV.

You can keep your ICE (for now) like some people have kept their old flip phones, but most will not have any issues with EVs. Have you driven Tesla or Audi EV? Occasionally I miss the visceral exhaust notes and shifting, but as an everyday car they’re great. Particularly if you need or like acceleration and don’t want to stop for gas.

 

[Neptune78]

From the investment industry side, a lot to worry about.

From the car user side, less. That’s the benefit of cars going away from the ownership model- less to worry about. Have you ever leased a vehicle? And much of it isn’t about EV vs ICE, although EVs are superior in the IoT/AI world. For example, BMW wanting seat heaters to be a monthly subscription service.

Regardless of EV, cars are becoming increasingly software and OTA update reliant. And the “worry” about not owning software has nothing to do with EV.

You can keep your ICE (for now) like some people have kept their old flip phones, but most will not have any issues with EVs. Have you driven Tesla or Audi EV? Occasionally I miss the visceral exhaust notes and shifting, but as an everyday car they’re great. Particularly if you need or like acceleration and don’t want to stop for gas.

For now? ICE cars will not be going away in my lifetime.
And, the answer to your two questions is no.

 

[WhoISthis]

For now? ICE cars will not be going away in my lifetime.
And, the answer to your two questions is no.

Depending on how old you are, at some point you likely won’t be able to buy a non-commercial new ICE vehicle.

But that comment was mostly alluding that soon most people won’t want to keep it. There are always expectations though.

It’s a shame politics have made doing due diligence and driving Teslas difficult in many states.

 

[besserheimerphat]

For now? ICE cars will not be going away in my lifetime.
And, the answer to your two questions is no.

Define "going away." I mean people still ride horses even though they aren't primary transportation anymore.

 

[Neptune78]

Depending on how old you are, at some point you likely won’t be able to buy a non-commercial new ICE vehicle.

But that comment was mostly alluding that soon most people won’t want to keep it. There are always expectations though.

It’s a shame politics have made doing due diligence and driving Teslas difficult in many states.

Teslas wouldn't even exist without politics,