Big 12 race tightening

[cyman05]

So from what I understand, here is ISU's seeding senarios for the Big 12 Tourney

3rd seed is definitely out since OU holds the tiebreaker with ISU. Only possible way for them to give it up to ISU is if they lose all 3 games and ISU wins all 3. With a home game against OSU, they won't lose all 3.

4th seed is on the line against KSU on Saturday. If we win, we'll hold the tiebreaker with KSU and be tied with them in the standings. If we win, we'll almost assuredly be the 4th seed because KSU still has to play A&M.

If we lose, KSU will automatically be the 4th seed because they will be up 2 games with 2 to play. Although the series would be tied 1-1 with them, they have a better record against North opponents, so they'd hold the tiebreaker.

5th seed is most likely even if ISU loses on Saturday. Both TT and UT will likely not finish better than 8-8, so even if ISU loses the next one, they have a good shot to win the last 2.



So the 4th seed is on the line for Saturday

[mred]

They have not lost since that day! They're on a 12-game winning streak and are 9-0 in conference, and probably going to win the Great West Conference. Our Northern Iowa win keeps looking better and better as well.

Of course Chicago St hasn't played anyone with an RPI higher than 210 since that day, either. :)

I was at the UNI game, and I'm not surprised they are doing well. They were a tough team, and the 10-point final margin didn't reflect how close that game was.

[mred]

3rd seed is definitely out since OU holds the tiebreaker with ISU. Only possible way for them to give it up to ISU is if they lose all 3 games and ISU wins all 3. With a home game against OSU, they won't lose all 3.

Their other two games might be tough (@ TTU, v Baylor), and anything can happen in a rivalry game. Still, OU's chances of losing all three are < 10%.

4th seed is on the line against KSU on Saturday. If we win, we'll hold the tiebreaker with KSU and be tied with them in the standings. If we win, we'll almost assuredly be the 4th seed because KSU still has to play A&M.

Assuming A&M beats KSU, we'd have to lose our last two for KSU to pass us. Texas Tech could still steal the 4 seed if they win out (possible) and we lose to either Kansas or @ Missouri (either one possible).

If we lose, KSU will automatically be the 4th seed because they will be up 2 games with 2 to play. Although the series would be tied 1-1 with them, they have a better record against North opponents, so they'd hold the tiebreaker.

You are correct that KSU would be guaranteed to finish ahead of us if they win Saturday. Texas and Tech both hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over KSU so one of them could theoretically squeeze past them (and us) into the 4th seed. Not likely, but possible.

th seed is most likely even if ISU loses on Saturday. Both TT and UT will likely not finish better than 8-8, so even if ISU loses the next one, they have a good shot to win the last 2.

I think Tech still has a shot at winning out. Home v OSU, road @ Texas, and home v Oklahoma. It's possible a lot could ride on that OU game if things shake out a certain way.

[cyman05]

Good points...you're right on everything.

That being said, I don't think TT will win out having to play at Texas and against Oklahoma. I think they'll drop one of the two.

I think ISU will be the 4th or 5th seed all depending on the game Saturday.

[statsaholic]

I rather agree with you. By the way, I saw the media gurus chatter on about the tech-baylor double T. Nearly all were complaining that it was unwarranted, but I did see the clip and correct me if I am wrong, but in the tie-up, at the end Griner gives a small but (to me) perceptive shove of the ball into The tech player's head. Given the tension and history especially that is grounds for a T. Now, I didnt really see anything that the Tech player did particularly in response to get the double T, but I wonder if it was just a deal for the officials to step in and get things a bit under control. I wondered at the time if that (which could be seen as favoring Griner by evening it out) was part of what Kristi Curry was ticked about. And I do tend to agree with her that thuggery tends to reign supreme especially with the "power" teams. And especially with the gentle giant--who of course must be protected.

If nothing else, it was interesting, and I appreciate the Texas Tech position.

I'm so excited to see how this all unfolds. I really want K-State to stumble and fall at the end. Really don't like K-State.

Texas Tech is a new favorite of mine mostly because I see them as an underdog in the South and because their Coach Curry always says such nice things about Coach Fen. She said point-blank in her game interview that she thinks Coach Fen is the best in the Big 12. Then in their next game she got into a screaming match face-to-face with Kim Mulkey and had to be separated by a referee because she thinks Kim's players play dirty (it was after a double-foul that involved Griner). So I have lots of love for Kristy Curry!

This is completely off-topic, but remember that Chicago State team we played in Hilton on January 2nd? They have not lost since that day! They're on a 12-game winning streak and are 9-0 in conference, and probably going to win the Great West Conference. Our Northern Iowa win keeps looking better and better as well.

[acoustimac]

Way too much thinking going on here. Makes my head hurt. ISU wins out - we finish 4th. We don't win out we could finish as low as the #8 seed.

[mkcrawford]

I rather agree with you. By the way, I saw the media gurus chatter on about the tech-baylor double T. Nearly all were complaining that it was unwarranted, but I did see the clip and correct me if I am wrong, but in the tie-up, at the end Griner gives a small but (to me) perceptive shove of the ball into The tech player's head. Given the tension and history especially that is grounds for a T. Now, I didnt really see anything that the Tech player did particularly in response to get the double T, but I wonder if it was just a deal for the officials to step in and get things a bit under control. I wondered at the time if that (which could be seen as favoring Griner by evening it out) was part of what Kristi Curry was ticked about. And I do tend to agree with her that thuggery tends to reign supreme especially with the "power" teams. And especially with the gentle giant--who of course must be protected.

If nothing else, it was interesting, and I appreciate the Texas Tech position.

I would agree that is was most likely the refs stepping in and get things under control. It wouldn't surprise me if the recent history between these two teams was discussed amongst the officials before the game; thus the double T call.

[isuno1fan]

This team needs to hope for a 6 or 7 seed in the NCAA. I think we need to win 2 of the last 3 and first game in conf. tournament to wrap that up.

If we finish 8-8...unless we win 2 in the conf. tournament, I fear we are headed for an 8 seed in the NCAAs.

[mred]

This team needs to hope for a 6 or 7 seed in the NCAA. I think we need to win 2 of the last 3 and first game in conf. tournament to wrap that up.

If we finish 8-8...unless we win 2 in the conf. tournament, I fear we are headed for an 8 seed in the NCAAs.

I'm not sure that's even enough. Our RPI is 28, right on the border between 7 and 8, and we lack any top-25 RPI wins. If we win our next four games -- go 10-6 and get a win over the 5 seed in the conf tournament (most likely KSU) -- that would probably seal it. We'd have a solid record and an RPI in the low to mid 20s. We go 9-7, make it as a 5 seed in the conference tournament, and beat #12 and #4 (again, probably KSU) that might do it. 8-8 might hurt our RPI enough that we'd have to at least make the B12 tourn final to recover.

[isuno1fan]

Just stay away from the 8/9 seed. I'd rather have a 10 if it comes down to it.

Unfortunately, best chances are an 8/9 right now though. Need to finish ahead of expectations.

[twistedredbird]

I think its too early to say where we will land. I think anywhere from a 6 to 10 is realistic depending on a lot of factors. Its a crazy big 12 race right now.

A lot for us depends on how we finish, and how we perform at the Big 12 tourney. I almost like us getting the 5/6/7 seed in the Big 12 tourney, that way we have 2 games with good shots of winning, vs being a 4 seed and Baylor for the second game.

The same is true for a lot of teams around our Seeding/RPI level. Rutgers,(probably out), Louisville, TTech, Vandy, Ohio St., Iowa, Arizona St., La Tech, USC, Georgia come to mind.

Also, a lot will have depend on how the committee views mid-majors. there are a dozen or so mid-major programs that are hovering around the 8-12 seed mark based on RPI, but will they get in?

The Good news:
We've somehow managed to stay in the rankings, which does keep us in a positive light. We beat Texas on ESPN last week. A lot of people were looking to that game to answer questions about the Big 12 - glad we won.

Wild cards: the rules of who can be seeded where, are complicated, and look to be very messy this year.

Iowa's assistant AD is chairman of the selection committee.

[twistedredbird]

Just stay away from the 8/9 seed. I'd rather have a 10 if it comes down to it.

Unfortunately, best chances are an 8/9 right now though. Need to finish ahead of expectations.

I agree. I don't want an 8 or 9. 6 or 7 would be ideal this year.

[mred]

I almost like us getting the 5/6/7 seed in the Big 12 tourney, that way we have 2 games with good shots of winning, vs being a 4 seed and Baylor for the second game.

I don't. A first round game against a low-RPI opponent can't really help us in any way, and a loss would hurt a lot. There's not a single team in the Big 12 I count as an automatic win for ISU, and I'd rather not take that risk.

[twistedredbird]

I don't. A first round game against a low-RPI opponent can't really help us in any way, and a loss would hurt a lot. There's not a single team in the Big 12 I count as an automatic win for ISU, and I'd rather not take that risk.

In all likelyhood, we are a 4 or the 5, depending on who wins Saturday. Either way, my hunch is we will have a rubber match with KSU. I don't see us losing to Nebraska as the 12 seed, or OSU at the 11 seed, if we were the 6.

I like the 6 seed route, because I want a rematch with us and OU, then if we win, we could play A&M again, which would be a close game again. The Baylor game would be a toss-up for us. Could be ugly, could be tight. And Mulkey will be no-holds barred against running up a score.

[Three4Cy]

We have to remember, the NCAA has their own RPI, so CollegeRPI.com and RealTimeRPI.com are nothing more than estimates. The NCAA only update theirs weekly, so it hasn't been updated since Monday.

The Michigan and Texas wins are the two best wins we have right now, followed by Virginia, Kansas State, UNI, and TCU. The problem with Virginia, their only quality win is Maryland in the ACC. UNI has games left against teams that are awful, other than Illinois State, so their RPI is not going to get better, because they are playing lower level teams. TCU has New Mexico and the Air Force Academy who are both outside the top 100, so their wins don't help us. Michigan lost to Minnesota last night, and closes with Illinois, and both those teams are outside the top 100 RPI right now, so I don't see any movement up for them either.

NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Rankings - NCAA.com