WBB seeding scenarios for the Big 12 Tournament

**mred** · 02-27-2012, 05:04 PM

Right now, the most likely seeding is #5.

Possible seeds:

#3 - If OU loses two games (v Tech and @ KU) and ISU wins both (v KSU and @ BU). Very unlikely.

#4 - If ISU beats KSU and either ISU wins @ BU or KSU loses at home to Tech. Could happen, but neither of those last two game outcomes are likely.

#5 - Guaranteed no lower than this if we win at least one game. We hold the two-team tiebreaker over KU. If we lose both, KU needs to lose at least one, and UT and OSU can't win both.

#6, #7, and/or #8 - If we lose both and Texas wins both, we lose that tiebreak. If it's OSU instead of UT, we lose the tiebreak unless KSU manages to tie A&M in the standings. If we are in a three-way tie with UT and KU or a 4-way tie adding OSU, KU jumps to the top of that group and we could end up as low as 8th. That would require 8 of the 10 remaining games to all go a certain way.

**Ms3r4ISU** · 02-27-2012, 05:15 PM

Originally Posted by mred

Right now, the most likely seeding is #5.

Possible seeds:

#3 - If OU loses two games (v Tech and @ KU) and ISU wins both (v KSU and @ BU). Very unlikely.

#4 - If ISU beats KSU and either ISU wins @ BU or KSU loses at home to Tech. Could happen, but neither of those last two game outcomes are likely.

#5 - Guaranteed no lower than this if we win at least one game. We hold the two-team tiebreaker over KU. If we lose both, KU needs to lose at least one, and UT and OSU can't win both.

#6, #7, and/or #8 - If we lose both and Texas wins both, we lose that tiebreak. If it's OSU instead of UT, we lose the tiebreak unless KSU manages to tie A&M in the standings. If we are in a three-way tie with UT and KU or a 4-way tie adding OSU, KU jumps to the top of that group and we could end up as low as 8th. That would require 8 of the 10 remaining games to all go a certain way.

In other words, it's likely our first game will be on Thursday, but a Wednesday game is possible, right?

**mred** · 02-27-2012, 06:04 PM

Originally Posted by Ms3r4ISU

In other words, it's likely our first game will be on Thursday, but a Wednesday game is possible, right?

Right. Pretty unlikely, but possible.

It's also possible that we can't get an 8 seed. There are two different ways to interpret the tiebreak rules, and depending on the interpretation it may be impossible to get an 8 seed. If you don't want to know the nuts and bolts of this, don't read further.

For us to potentially get an 8 seed, we have to lose two, OSU and UT need to win two, and KU needs to beat OU (KU loses to OSU in this scenario). Additionally, A&M needs to beat BU and/or TT needs to beat KSU.

Kansas has a 4-2 round-robin record in this group. ISU and OSU are 3-3. UT is 2-4.

Interpretation #1 seen here: mred's Big 12 Tournament Bracket Generator
Kansas gets the 5 seed by winning the round-robin. ISU/OSU/UT are pooled back together for a new tiebreak. They are all tied at 2-2 in roundrobin, and the tiebreak goes down to record against the #2 team (A&M). Texas is 2-0, OSU 1-1, and ISU 0-2, so Texas gets the 6 seed. OSU and ISU return to the start of the tiebreak, which goes back again to #2 record. OSU gets the 7 seed and ISU the 8 seed.

Interpretation #2 seen here: mred's Big 12 Tournament Bracket Generator
Kansas gets the 5 seed based on round-robin record. Since UT had the worst round-robin record, they get the 8 seed. OSU and ISU head to a tiebreak against each other, which OSU wins based on #2 record. Therefore, OSU is the 6 seed and ISU the 7 seed.

**cyman05** · 02-27-2012, 06:10 PM

This K-State game on Wednesday is critical.

ISU is not winning at Baylor, and if you lose the K-State game, you will likely end up the 6, 7, or 8 seed which means if you have to play on Wednesday (7 or 8 seed) with nothing to gain, and a tough opponent for a Thursday game.

I don't want to find out the ladies NCAA chances if they finish 0-4, or 1-4 with the 1 win coming over a team like Missouri.

**Royalclone** · 02-27-2012, 06:11 PM

If I read the brackets correctly, the MBB and WBB have a good chance to be in the 4-5 seed game, with both playing K-State at essentially the same time. Hate it when that happens.

**mred** · 02-27-2012, 06:34 PM

Originally Posted by cyman05

This K-State game on Wednesday is critical.

ISU is not winning at Baylor, and if you lose the K-State game, you will likely end up the 6, 7, or 8 seed which means if you have to play on Wednesday (7 or 8 seed) with nothing to gain, and a tough opponent for a Thursday game.

I don't know about "likely". I agree with everything else you say, though. The three different teams that can pass us (KU, OSU, UT) all have long odds to win out. The most likely is OSU (@ KU, v MU) since KU would have to win @ OU and UT would have to beat A&M at home. Putting all those together would approach 50-50 maybe.

**mred** · 02-27-2012, 06:34 PM

Originally Posted by Royalclone

If I read the brackets correctly, the MBB and WBB have a good chance to be in the 4-5 seed game, with both playing K-State at essentially the same time. Hate it when that happens.

That's the single plus to separating out the MBB and WBB Big 12 tournaments, as long as they also put them on different weeks.

**Sobchakcyclone** · 02-28-2012, 04:52 PM

Originally Posted by mred

That's the single plus to separating out the MBB and WBB Big 12 tournaments, as long as they also put them on different weeks.

If you put them in separate weekends, they're essentially separate. Doesn't matter if it's the same city or not. I think the cross-over from the two groups helps a school like ours, because the sites are a destination due to travel from Ames. The current arrangement is poor in the case of time conflicts, which I don't think have happened to us very often ( I know last year, too). In a shrinking world of discretionary spending, I'm not sure the results for a stand alone women's tourney would be great? You could have stellar years in a winner's backyard, but I think that lessens the spirit of what it's supposed to be. Ou winning in Oklahoma City was a joke. Not sure about WVU and TCU in their fan bases. I could be wrong, though.

**Ms3r4ISU** · 02-29-2012, 03:08 PM

Originally Posted by Sobchakcyclone

If you put them in separate weekends, they're essentially separate. Doesn't matter if it's the same city or not. I think the cross-over from the two groups helps a school like ours, because the sites are a destination due to travel from Ames. The current arrangement is poor in the case of time conflicts, which I don't think have happened to us very often ( I know last year, too). In a shrinking world of discretionary spending, I'm not sure the results for a stand alone women's tourney would be great? You could have stellar years in a winner's backyard, but I think that lessens the spirit of what it's supposed to be. Ou winning in Oklahoma City was a joke. Not sure about WVU and TCU in their fan bases. I could be wrong, though.

Women's tournament was supposed to stay in KC through 2013. A few months ago came word that 2012 is the last year, and the 2013 event will be in Dallas (See Big 12 Announces Plans for Future Championship Sites - Big 12 Conference - Official Athletic Site)

Brittney Griner will be a senior next year. Coincidence? I think not.

**Ames** · 02-29-2012, 03:28 PM

Originally Posted by Ms3r4ISU

Brittney Griner will be a senior next year. Coincidence? I think not.

She is going pro early

**theshadow** · 02-29-2012, 11:45 PM

Originally Posted by mred

That's the single plus to separating out the MBB and WBB Big 12 tournaments, as long as they also put them on different weeks.

They are.

The men will stay on the current Wed-Sat schedule. The women will bump up to the previous Fri-Mon. So, there will be one off day between tournaments. With that move, it probably means the women will be playing 2 conference games between finals and New Year's.

**Royalclone** · 03-01-2012, 08:14 PM

[QUOTE=Ms3r4ISU;2718600]Women's tournament was supposed to stay in KC through 2013. A few months ago came word that 2012 is the last year, and the 2013 event will be in Dallas (See Big 12 Announces Plans for Future Championship Sites - Big 12 Conference - Official Athletic Site)

Brittney Griner will be a senior next year. Coincidence? I think not.

The Texas group of WBB Coaches have been wanting to get this tournament back back there. MU gave them the excuse to get it done early. The only way the MBB stays in KC is if they money is too good to go to OKC or Texas.

**kcdc4isu** · 03-01-2012, 11:18 PM

[quote=Royalclone;2723035]

Originally Posted by Ms3r4ISU

Women's tournament was supposed to stay in KC through 2013. A few months ago came word that 2012 is the last year, and the 2013 event will be in Dallas (See Big 12 Announces Plans for Future Championship Sites - Big 12 Conference - Official Athletic Site)

Brittney Griner will be a senior next year. Coincidence? I think not.

The Texas group of WBB Coaches have been wanting to get this tournament back back there. MU gave them the excuse to get it done early. The only way the MBB stays in KC is if they money is too good to go to OKC or Texas.

Taking to tournament to Texas will make it just like thhe Big 10 tourney, teams playing in front of very small crowds. Even when it was in Oklahoma City the southern schools did not bring that many people. I was there and sat in the middle of Oklahoma fans.