The main ingredient at this point is the fact that Texas has their LHN already ready to go. It's the only saving grace for the Big 12 at this point. If this were to happen next year when the LHN is a major flop, Texas would be gone to the Pac with OU, OSU, and tbd. Since no other league will give Texas the power they have now, Texas is only interested in keeping the Big 12 going. That may not be possible even with Texas on board if the SEC and B1G decide to go SUPER first.
ISU needs Texas in the Big 12. If Texas is here, OU is likely to stay put. If OU suddenly departs to the SEC with aTm, then it's over, but I think that is highly unlikely. Worst case scenario would be to the Big East for a couple of years before it joins forces with the ACC to form their eastern super conference. At that point, ISU would be in trouble of staying in the super conference discussion. Texas holds the key for us...which sucks.