We really, really need to hope for the ACC to take UConn and Rutgers, as well as Pitt and Syracuse.
The Pac would certainly take four current Big 12 schools - OU, OSU, and probably UT and Tech. Maybe Kansas sneaks in there as one of them (which would be better for ISU), but I don't think that's likely.
The question then becomes.. what does the SEC do if the ACC truly locks down their teams? A&M, West Virginia, and Missouri seem like very good bets. Then who is #16? My best guess is Louisville (remember, assuming the ACC is unavailable), but I have seen that a group of SEC presidents will vote against adding a school in any current SEC state. But you have to imagine that would change if something like this was going down.
So that leaves the Big Ten. Assuming they won't be able to poach another AQ conference (read: the ACC), they are low on options to get to 16.
Obviously Notre Dame is one. They will see the writing on the wall and won't be able to stay independent. So, three spots are left. Then you have to take a look at the list of AAU schools that would be left and were in a BCS-conference. There are just two: Kansas and Iowa State.
We need to get them in the SEC. And we need to get Rutgers and Pittsburgh into a locked-down ACC.
(If this were to happen, USF, Cincinnati, Kansas State, and Baylor would end up being the current-AQ schools that would be left out of the Big 64 four-superconference picture. TCU would also be SOL.)