***OFFICIAL BIG 12 EXPANSION THREAD 2.0***
- Thread starter Boxerdaddy
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The National, 11/19/12: Carousel. - Bring On The Cats
This is an absolutely fascinating article on why the Big 12 needs to expand. I'll just show you the graphs. But here is what it would look like if the SEC and Big 12 finished the year with everyone beating everyone with no upsets.
Here is what last year(2011) looked like standings wise for the SEC and Big 12.
Here is what this year will look like if favorites win out.
And finally here is what this year could have looked liked if all the top teams missed each other.
Going to 14 is going to make you look strong and give you a lot of potential for multiple one loss teams.
The Big 12 needs to expand. It really is open and shut.
This is an absolutely fascinating article on why the Big 12 needs to expand. I'll just show you the graphs. But here is what it would look like if the SEC and Big 12 finished the year with everyone beating everyone with no upsets.
| SEC | Big 12 | ||
| 1 | 9-0 | 1 | 9-0 |
| 2 | 8-1 | 2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 7-1 | 3 | 7-2 |
| 4 | 7-1 | 4 | 6-3 |
| 5 | 6-2 | 5 | 5-4 |
| 6 | 6-2 | 6 | 4-5 |
Here is what last year(2011) looked like standings wise for the SEC and Big 12.
| SEC | Big 12 | ||
| 1 | 9-0 | 1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 7-1 | 2 | 7-2 |
| 3 | 7-1 | 3 | 6-3 |
| 4 | 6-2 | 4 | 6-3 |
| 5 | 6-2 | 5 | 5-4 |
| 6 | 4-4 | 6 | 4-5 |
Here is what this year will look like if favorites win out.
| SEC | Big 12 | ||
| 1 | 7-1 | 1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 7-1 | 2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 7-1 | 3 | 5-4 |
| 4 | 6-2 | 4 | 5-4 |
| 5 | 6-2 | 5 | 5-4 |
| 6 | 6-2 | 6 | 4-5 |
And finally here is what this year could have looked liked if all the top teams missed each other.
| SEC | Big 12 | ||
| 1 | 8-1 | 1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 7-2 | 2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 7-1 | 3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 7-1 | 4 | 5-4 |
| 5 | 7-1 | 5 | 5-4 |
| 6 | 7-1 | 6 | 5-4 |
Going to 14 is going to make you look strong and give you a lot of potential for multiple one loss teams.
The Big 12 needs to expand. It really is open and shut.
Basically, Dude is saying the Big Ten is leading the raid. When/if they take Virginia and GTech, then the SEC will take VTech and UNC/NCState. The Big XII will then take FSU, Clemson, and others to get to 16. According to him, FSU and Clemson are already packing their bags.
The problem, he says, is that UNC and Duke are trying to save the ACC. He assumes that we get FSU and Clemson, but what are our choices after that to get to 16? Louisville would be one of those we would want. The ACC will want to add them next week with UConn. The Big XII may try to head them off by acting on Louisville before they do.
IF he is correct and all those teams leave the ACC, my guess is that the ACC is eventually going to fall. So, it would only be a matter of time before we pick up the ones we want. Both the SEC and Big Ten will have 16.
| SEC | Big 12 | ||
| 1 | 8-1 | 1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 7-2 | 2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 7-1 | 3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 7-1 | 4 | 5-4 |
| 5 | 7-1 | 5 | 5-4 |
| 6 | 7-1 | 6 | 5-4 |
To really show how this makes the SEC look good, if the top 6 SEC teams won all their OOC games, they would have 6 teams with 11 wins or more and 1 teams that would have 12. The Big 12 would have 3 teams with 11 wins at the most, no 12 win team, and after the 3 teams with 11 wins the 4th best looking team would only have 8 wins. And that is a best case scenario for the Big 12. 3 teams with 10+ wins while the SEC could would have 6 teams with 10+ wins.
It is amazing it took this long for a group of college presidents to grasp this concept, plus the fact that it needed to increase its footprint.
FSU and Clemson are a great start. If Tobacco road wants the ACC to stay together, just offer to have the "old" ACC as a division in the new Big 12. Even if GT and UVa bounce to the Big 10, replace them with Pitt and Va Tech (the fact that Pitt and Va Tech are willing to stick with a weakened ACC indicates it is not foregone they go to the SEC).
Short of that, adding FSU, Clemson, and UL to completely break up the ACC is solid. Fill out with the available North Carolina school(s), Va Tech, and/or Pitt.
I know some of you do not like reading all of the rumors out conference realignment out there, but I just find this stuff interesting. I am not sure if it's the drama or what.
In any case, I do not think the Big 12 can stand on the sidelines like it did last time. It sounds like outside forces will make us add conference members, and if we want to add value, we need to go out there and add schools before anyone else does. I am sure the Big 12 already know which schools add value. Therefore we need to go out there and wrap them up before anyone else does.
We need to be proactive and not reactive.
In any case, I do not think the Big 12 can stand on the sidelines like it did last time. It sounds like outside forces will make us add conference members, and if we want to add value, we need to go out there and add schools before anyone else does. I am sure the Big 12 already know which schools add value. Therefore we need to go out there and wrap them up before anyone else does.
We need to be proactive and not reactive.
Unfortunately, we are less desirable than the Big Ten or SEC. Teams looking to leave will exhaust their options with those conferences before accepting any offers we make.
We can pick up Louisville to be proactive but you don't do that without another team in-pocket that adds value.
We can pick up Louisville to be proactive but you don't do that without another team in-pocket that adds value.
We will probably never know all the details about the backroom conversations and deals.
It seems clear to me, and has for some time, that we are very likely to go to 4 conferences. It seems just as clear that the current Big XII teams understand how much is at stake. So, one would then have to assume that they are doing everything they can to get the best possible schools for our conference.
Keep in mind that the SEC has a bowl agreement with the Big XII and that it was announced as the bigger and better Rose Bowl. This indicates that the SEC has some stake in seeing the Big XII survive (over the ACC). Why?
The big question seems to be whether or not the ACC can out-maneuver the Big XII. Maybe the other three (PAC, Big Ten, SEC) have already come to some sort of agreement with the Big XII and everything we are watching is just the unfolding of their plans. I hope so, because it would then be much more difficult for the ACC to hold on.
If the ACC is truly going to fall, why would they settle for GT when they could have UNC?
Not sure which conference UNC would prefer.
It may also come down to UNC's desire and attempt to save the ACC. They may not jump until the conference completely falls. To make it fall, you have to first pick off the teams that you can.
I don't see how the Big 12 can avoid expanding at this point. Its obviously heading towards this Super conference crap which I hate but it is what it is. I have no doubt Bowlsby and the rest of the Big 12 is actively pursuing all options that would make the Big 12 stronger. We shall see how it plays out.
If the old ACC bloc joined the Big 12, population wise the advantage would be minimal, even giving the Big 10 the state of New York. Generate comparable money with a Big 12 (+ACC) network, but with the ACC's desire to remain mostly intact fulfilled.
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This is true. The B12 is third fiddle. First the B1G and SEC will have to make their moves before anyone such as FSU, Clemson, etc will be willing to jump on board the B12
No reason we can't take Louisville and sit at 11 for a while while the rest unfolds. Big 10 did it for a decade plus.
Can't pull it off if TV contracts demand 9 conference games. 11*9 / 2 = 49.5 games
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