Whether we like it or not, Rhoads will be back, so let's talk ourselves into 2015...

[DesertClone1]

Re: Whether we like it or not, Rhoads will be back, so let's talk ourselves into 2015

Because we are in the Big 12 and they are in the Missouri Valley.

So was NDSU.

 

[Wesley]

Re: Whether we like it or not, Rhoads will be back, so let's talk ourselves into 2015

2) The Extremely Favorable Schedule


UNI loses a ton off this year's team,.... Iowa loses a ton, too.....


And Toledo loses a ton as well-- their entire offensive line.

We lose a ton of leadership. I do not see much leadership coming back. Name me the strong leaders for next year.

 

[bigdaddykane]

Re: Whether we like it or not, Rhoads will be back, so let's talk ourselves into 2015

Let's assume Rhoads will return in 2015. All signs seem to point that way. Since we're assuming Rhoads will be the HC in 2015, let's discuss places to find optimism for a better year in 2015.

This thread isn't to argue whether or not Rhoads should return -- we're assuming he will. This thread isn't to argue whether or not we're being overly optimistic -- that's the point.

This thread is about making lemons out of lemonade. Rhoads will be back, so let's make the most of it and find things to look forward to. I'll get things rolling:

1) The South End Zone
The most obvious place to start. The SEZ will generate excitement and enthusiasm and we should have 61,000+ screaming fans for the first few games, easily. Even the most jaded fans who are done with football this year will want to show up to see New Jack Trice Stadium.

With two jumbo scoreboards, two ribbon boards, and all-new acoustics, Jack Trice Stadium will now be a much tougher place to play. Make no mistake, this really is a big deal and it will affect passing, kicking, and noise levels significantly. JTS will play very differently than it has before. For a team that's struggled to win at home, any little advantage will help.

2) The Extremely Favorable Schedule
Have you seen our schedule for next year? It's amazing. First off, it's a great home schedule: 2 September games, 3 October games, and only 1 November game, and it's November 14th. Three of our first four games are at home, while the weather is nice and the SEZ is a novelty. We should have great crowds.

Secondly, the schedule is easiest at the front. For a team with a bruised psyche, this is a perfect way to ramp up and build confidence. UNI, Iowa, @Toledo, Kansas, @Texas Tech are the first five games. The three home games are all winnable and the road games are not difficult. I'm not making any 5-0 predictions, but the team will get a taste of winning again.

UNI loses a ton off this year's team, including stud RB David Johnson. Iowa loses a ton, too. David, Trinca-Passat, Martin-Manley, Weisman, Powell, Scherff, Bullock, Lowdermilk, and Alston are all gone.

• We should always expect to beat FCS schools like UNI, and they'll be down next year.
• We beat Iowa this year at Kinnick and they lose a ton.
• We beat Toledo this year, and we tend to play fine on the road.
• Kansas will be breaking in a new HC; they won't retain Bowen.
• We had our chances against Texas Tech this year and we've beaten better teams in Lubbock under Rhoads.

Third, we only have one bye week. I'm putting this down as a good thing. ISU under Rhoads has been terrible coming off a bye week, so the fewer byes, the better. I think Rhoads' teams seem to do better during the steady rhythm of a season. Disjointed schedules do us no favors.

3) We Really Don't Lose That Much
Major senior losses: Bibbs, Jevohn Miller, Cory Morrisey, Wimberly, Farniok, Gannon, Jensen, and Jarvis West.

Bibbs, Wimberly, and West are the biggest losses here. The emergence of Allen Lazard will certainly help soothe the loss of Bibbs and West. Wimberly, while pretty good, didn't help improve our RB corps in any measurable way. We will still bad at RB with Wimberly, so I don't think it'll get much worse. Nealy and Syria will help provide a good one-two punch going forward.

Jensen, Gannon, Morrisey all played on lines that were pretty much dumpster fires. The line play was so bad on both sides of the ball I don't think it can get a whole lot worse.

Farniok will be missed mostly because it felt like our line play collapsed with him out of the game. But hopefully that was just due to a sudden leadership vacuum on the line, and this loss will be mitigated by grooming a successor throughout spring and fall.

Senior losses will affect WR play the most. We actually had some decent WR play this year, but we also have a superstar in the making with Allen Lazard, so...

RB, OL, DL, and LB were all so terrible that I find it hard to argue losing these seniors will hurt them that much more. They're already bad.

4) The Injury Bug Won't Hit Three Straight Years
2013 and 2014 were by-far the most injury riddled years of the Paul Rhoads era. It's hard to imagine that we'll get bit by the bug for a third straight year. At least, not at the level we've been sustaining injuries.

If we can stay healthy next year, we will have some good depth built up from all the injuries we've weathered the last two years and their replacements getting significant playing time.

The 2015 team could be a team that can actually substitute players who need a breather -- which is important in the up-tempo Big 12.

There have been a lot of folks questioning Yancy McKnight, but I've heard from folks in the S&C field who think the world of Yancy. He's considered one of the best. S&C is in good hands.

5) Mangino Gets a Full Offseason to Implement his System
We've seen flashes of brilliance from Mangino followed by frustration. It's clear he still needs time to get his system implemented and his players fully acclimated to it. With a full offseason to evaluate what he is working with, plus an opportunity to influence recruiting, I fully expected Mangino's offense to shine in his second year.

6) No QB Derby
There will be no QB Derby in the offseason. Sam's the man. Unless Lanning comes out and he's visibly, clearly, no-doubt-about-it better (which would be great), Sam will be the clear-cut starter as a Senior. He'll get all the snaps with the #1's and he'll have every opportunity to grasp Mangino's system. All the focus can be on beating the other teams instead of beating the guys on the same team.

7) Staff Continuity
We replaced an absurd number of staff members over the last offseason. Anytime this happens in any program, it's usually considered a clear sign that the next season will be a major step back. For some reason, we closed our own eyes to this. We ignored the clear warning signs. But yes, we too suffered major growing pains replacing so many coaches.

It looks like we should keep almost all of the coaching staff in place over this offseason. This will give the program much-needed stability and continuity, and the team will be better for it.

8) Recruiting Will Be Okay
Yes, there have been a few de-commitments as of late. Most of these guys were verbally "committed" to Iowa State while continuing to take visits. These guys weren't all-in on Iowa State and suddenly jumped ship. They were with us as long as we were the best option.

We still have three great recruiting weapons at our disposal:
a) Playing Time
b) New Jack Trice Stadium (third biggest stadium in the Big 12)
c) The Football Building

Kids love bells and whistles. Getting to play in a brand-new stadium with gigantic scoreboards, ribbon boards, and the 3rd largest capacity in the Big 12 is a big deal. Our Football Building is still very new and very impressive. And we most definitely can sell Playing Time.

When all's said and done, recruiting will be just fine. It's a marathon, not a sprint. Playing at Iowa State is tough; it's not easy, and our recruits will need to reflect that toughness, too. I'm not saying we wouldn't have loved to get those recruits (we would have); I'm just saying that we need a certain type of player to succeed at Iowa State. Jumping ship because we lost to a Kansas isn't going to help.

9) The One Season Turnaround Has Been Done Before
2003 was a 2-10 dumpster fire of a season. 2003 was McCarney's 9th season and the momentum was already trending downward at that point -- every season was downhill from 2000.

The very next year, we were Big 12 North Co-Champions. Certainly, the addition of Bret Meyer was a major factor, but so were a few major JUCO recruiting pickups who became stalwarts of our 2004-2005 defensive core.

2008 was a 2-10 dumpster fire of a season. The very next year, we went 7-6 without any major change in the personnel on the field.

Over the last 11 years, we have gone 2-10 twice, and both times we followed up 2-10 seasons with a 7 win season.

Past performance is not indicative of future performance. I get that. Just because we've had a tendency to follow up 2-10 seasons with bowl-winning seasons doesn't mean we will this time. But to say it can't be done or that it's impossible or that it won't happen at Iowa State... well... that's not true. (Yes, the Big 12 season is harder now.)

...

It's entirely possible we continue to suck next year. By Senior Day, the new South End Zone is already empty and deserted. Paul Rhoads is shown the door right after Thanksgiving 2015. All of that is entirely possible.

But maybe, just maybe, there are some reasons to be hopeful. After all, we're Iowa State. We're experts in hope. Maybe Lucy won't pull the football away from us this time.

How long did it take you to write this? It's over 7 pages long on a google doc and has 3,000+ words.

 

[weR138]

Re: Whether we like it or not, Rhoads will be back, so let's talk ourselves into 2015

The OP isn't saying with confidence that we'll beat UNI either. Put another way, who on our schedule are we MORE likely to beat than UNI, Iowa, Toledo, Kansas and TT? It may not be likely that we beat any of them, but they are the weakest teams on our schedule and we happen to play all of them our first 5 games. Would you agree that going into the remainder of the season at 3-2 or maybe 4-1 just might breed a little more confidence than going into it at 1-4 or 0-5? A team that has a winning record usually feels like they've got more to play for and perhaps that would be a necessity to squeeze out another W or two. From that perspective, some see the schedule lining up as favorably as can be.

I get this but in 2015 I think (one man's opinion) that this is a false premise. I don't see Toledo as more "beatable" than UT in 2015. And I'm also not saying we'll have a bad record. I'm simply saying that this staff has proved that what once were likely wins aren't anymore.

I would agree that going 4-1 would have the power to create momentum, I just don't agree that a 4-1 stretch is more likely in the first five games rather than the last five. I think both are implausible. I think this because of the leads we blew vs. NDSU (beginning of the season), WVU (end of the season) and the ridiculous nonsensical beating we took vs. KU.

 

[roundball]

Re: Whether we like it or not, Rhoads will be back, so let's talk ourselves into 2015

I get this but in 2015 I think (one man's opinion) that this is a false premise. I don't see Toledo as more "beatable" than UT in 2015. And I'm also not saying we'll have a bad record. I'm simply saying that this staff has proved that what once were likely wins aren't anymore.

I would agree that going 4-1 would have the power to create momentum, I just don't agree that a 4-1 stretch is more likely in the first five games rather than the last five. I think both are implausible. I think this because of the leads we blew vs. NDSU (beginning of the season), WVU (end of the season) and the ridiculous nonsensical beating we took vs. KU.

In 2015, they'll need to be androids, not men.

 

[Luth4Cy]

Re: Whether we like it or not, Rhoads will be back, so let's talk ourselves into 2015

How long did it take you to write this? It's over 7 pages long on a google doc and has 3,000+ words.

You'll be a faster writer when you get into high school.

 

[Clonefan32]

Re: Whether we like it or not, Rhoads will be back, so let's talk ourselves into 2015

2) The Extremely Favorable Schedule


UNI loses a ton off this year's team,.... Iowa loses a ton, too.....


And Toledo loses a ton as well-- their entire offensive line.

It says something about the state of our program when we are having to rely on UNI and Toledo "losing a lot" to like our chances of winning.

I'm torn on the whole thing. On one hand, I don't see a huge issue of giving CPR a make-or-break year. The pieces are there, and there are no excuses not to at least make it to a bowl game.

On the other hand, I'm not sure what it says about our program that someone can go 29-45, and 5-19 in the last 2 years and keep their job. Tulsa just fired their head coach who was 24-27 in 4 years, going 2-10 this year. Why is it that what's not good enough for Tulsa is good enough for us?

 

[Tailg8er]

Re: Whether we like it or not, Rhoads will be back, so let's talk ourselves into 2015

6 wins? Are you people freaking nuts? No way we win more than 3 next year.
5-0 start? HAH we're gonna get killed by UNI.

Care to make a wager on that??

 

[Cyclonestate78]

Re: Whether we like it or not, Rhoads will be back, so let's talk ourselves into 2015

This is a good post by the OP. Its nice reading something positive for once. 15 is the year anything less than 6-6 is a failure and CPR is canned.

If 6-6 is the minimum for Rhoads to keep his job JP might as well fire him now. The chances are far greater that Rhoads will take this team to the depths of an 0-12 season then he will lead them to a 6-6 record.

 

[Cyclonestate78]

Re: Whether we like it or not, Rhoads will be back, so let's talk ourselves into 2015

On the other hand, I'm not sure what it says about our program that someone can go 29-45, and 5-19 in the last 2 years and keep their job. Tulsa just fired their head coach who was 24-27 in 4 years, going 2-10 this year. Why is it that what's not good enough for Tulsa is good enough for us?

What it says is that even the people in charge at ISU have no expectations that ISU will ever field a competitive football program. It says that they like a feel good story like Rhoads... the "hometown" guy coming back and leading his team with all kinds of passion is better then winning. Anyone that can take their fan glasses off and look at the cold hard reality of the situation the program is in has to be able to see that. 5 wins in 2 years and only 2 conference wins? That is good enough? Only at Iowa State apparently.

 

[cycloneworld]

Re: Whether we like it or not, Rhoads will be back, so let's talk ourselves into 2015

If 6-6 is the minimum for Rhoads to keep his job JP might as well fire him now. The chances are far greater that Rhoads will take this team to the depths of an 0-12 season then he will lead them to a 6-6 record.

This is ridiculous. We were closer to 6-6 than 0-12 THIS year.

 

[FanatiClone]

Re: Whether we like it or not, Rhoads will be back, so let's talk ourselves into 2015

I get this but in 2015 I think (one man's opinion) that this is a false premise. I don't see Toledo as more "beatable" than UT in 2015. And I'm also not saying we'll have a bad record. I'm simply saying that this staff has proved that what once were likely wins aren't anymore.

I would agree that going 4-1 would have the power to create momentum, I just don't agree that a 4-1 stretch is more likely in the first five games rather than the last five. I think both are implausible. I think this because of the leads we blew vs. NDSU (beginning of the season), WVU (end of the season) and the ridiculous nonsensical beating we took vs. KU.

Although I can absolutely see your point, I still think the front of our schedule will produce more wins than the back half. I'm not convinced we will have even one "gimme" game, though. If you had to put money on it, how many wins would you predict for next year?

 

[FanatiClone]

Re: Whether we like it or not, Rhoads will be back, so let's talk ourselves into 2015

Care to make a wager on that??

I'd like in on that also. Of course the guy would have to define "killed", just so there's no confusion. But that's a bet I'd be feel secure getting in on. No way ISU goes down to UNI in 15.

 

[Cyclonestate78]

Re: Whether we like it or not, Rhoads will be back, so let's talk ourselves into 2015

This is ridiculous. We were closer to 6-6 than 0-12 THIS year.

You'll have to explain this one. ISU tallied 2 wins... a last second FG to beat a below average Iowa team (they beat 1 team with a winning record this year... UNI) and a come from behind 7 point win against a MAC school doesn't exactly lead me to believe that they were closer to 6-6 then 0-12.

 

[Jer]

Re: Whether we like it or not, Rhoads will be back, so let's talk ourselves into 2015

To be a little more realistic than the OP...

Schedule: It may be a help, but it just makes the second half of the season a big drag.

Stadium: Even with the new stuff, I don't think JTS is designed in a way for it to get intimidatingly loud. Add in the makeup of our fans and it doesn't become any harder to play at than anybody but probably Kansas in the Big XII.

Recruiting: We've always been bottom of the league in recruiting and it has already shown signs of being very bad this offseason. I would expect at least 2 noticeable transfers (one that will hurt) and we know how well JUCOs work out.

Opponent's Turnover: This is part of why we looked better a decade or two ago - weaker opponents. I don't disagree that some of our opponents lose a lot, but a lot of what we saw this year wasn't due to a lack of skill but rather a lack of coaching, discipline, and fundamentals. The only teams on the schedule we have a skill advantage with are arguably Toledo and UNI, and those are arguable.

QB Play: I don't think people should be nearly so hard on Sam - a LOT of the problems people blame him for are due to a JV level O-Line and terrible running game (not to mention play calling at times). Sure, his decision making is suspect at times, but it's because he's constantly had to worry for his life in the pocket. Don't see things being any different next year - possibly worse.

Coaching: Nobody wants CPR to win more - he's the absolute nicest guy we could ask for. However, the only way to succeed at ISU is to have above average development and conditioning - something we're absolutely lacking right now. Magino might have done wonders at Kansas, but I'm not sold on him at ISU just yet. There were some bright spots, but he also had some incredibly poor play calling in many of our games. He was way too passive and not nearly aggressive enough - too many screens and 5-yard routes when we clearly had downfield opportunities to exploit.

Injuries: Sure, we've had bad luck the past two years, but much of that "luck" goes back to effort, strategy, and conditioning in the offseason and in game prep. Everybody has injuries, but when you lack many of the above items, (skill, coaching, depth, etc) a single injury can be huge - and we usually have 7-8 impactful injuries.

Positions/Skill: OL, RB, DL, LB are they absolute most critical positions at ISU and we have been absolutely terrible in those areas. Next year CAN be worse and is GOING to be worse based on all indicators. How can it get worse you ask? Well, when you have crap, lose a little bit of that aged crap and bring in young crap; you're still left with crap, just of the less fermented kind.

 

[weR138]

Re: Whether we like it or not, Rhoads will be back, so let's talk ourselves into 2015

Although I can absolutely see your point, I still think the front of our schedule will produce more wins than the back half. I'm not convinced we will have even one "gimme" game, though. If you had to put money on it, how many wins would you predict for next year?

This touches on my comment about the nonsensical beating we took at KU. I honestly don't know. The 2015 Cyclones looked like they could beat UT but got whipped by NDSU. They looked like they could beat WVU but got whipped by KU. It just makes your head spin.

Gun to my head I'd bet one win because that's the trend and I don't see the personnel improving...or the coaching staff. I can see a season nearly identical to this one. Even if we have a new DC he'll "need time to get his system implemented" and to "get his recruits in place". And if we have a couple injuries look out...

EDIT: not sure why this looks like I'm talking to myself. I typically only do that at home.

 

[jbhtexas]

Re: Whether we like it or not, Rhoads will be back, so let's talk ourselves into 2015

EDIT: not sure why this looks like I'm talking to myself. I typically only do that at home.

Quote tags probably aren't balanced...

 

[peachy]

Re: Whether we like it or not, Rhoads will be back, so let's talk ourselves into 2015

It is nice to see the optimistic side of things, but you have to be realistic too.

Next year hinges on the defense, plain and simple. This 2014 defense will go down as the worst defense in yards allowed in all of FBS college football. There have been numerous games (OU, Baylor, KU) where the game was over by halftime, simply because our defense could not stop ANYTHING. If you watch any of the games, you would be rich if you got a nickel for every missed tackle. The DL got zero pressure, the LB's were ALWAYS out of position to make a tackle, and the secondary was horrific. (I still do not understand how Sam R. has a starting job, he is beaten on almost every single pass play in his direction. If you need a first down, throw to his side). It is literally the worst defense I have ever seen at the college level.

The offense did make some strides this year. Not saying they set the world on fire, but at least you could see there was some improvement. They were able to move the ball, and for the most part, scored enough points to give our team a chance to win the game. That was until the defense took the field. Watch the Texas game again, in the last 30 seconds, just to see how dreadful this defense really was.

If CPR was smart, he would be selling snake oil to every JUCO defensive player he sees. If there is no improvement on the defensive side of the ball, it won't matter what happens with the offense, or how many talented receivers we bring back.

Watch the UNI game next year for a glimpse of 2015. They have big OL, and like to run the ball. If they whip us up front (like they have in the past), they will run the ball down our throat, and 2015 will be just like this year. Lose to UNI, and 2015 will be 2-10 all over again. This staff has shown me nothing that they will address the defense. If Wally is retained, that says a lot about the program.

 

[norcalcy]

Re: Whether we like it or not, Rhoads will be back, so let's talk ourselves into 2015

What it says is that even the people in charge at ISU have no expectations that ISU will ever field a competitive football program. It says that they like a feel good story like Rhoads... the "hometown" guy coming back and leading his team with all kinds of passion is better then winning. Anyone that can take their fan glasses off and look at the cold hard reality of the situation the program is in has to be able to see that. 5 wins in 2 years and only 2 conference wins? That is good enough? Only at Iowa State apparently.

Very well said. Wins and Losses (at least the real kind) don't seem to matter.

 

[Wesley]

Re: Whether we like it or not, Rhoads will be back, so let's talk ourselves into 2015

Why should we beat UNI? They have more talent and are better coached.

The Farley Factor.