The season prediction thread got me to dust off an old stats program and run some scenarios.
If you had to list a win % for each game, what would it look like?
Mine looks like this:
With 38 entries as of 1:30pm the average Win % look like this:
In the 5000 replicate MC run, the season probabilities look like this, with average predicted Wins as 4.701 and Losses as 7.299:
If you had to list a win % for each game, what would it look like?
Mine looks like this:
| UNI | 90% |
| IOWA | 55% |
| atToledo | 75% |
| KU | 65% |
| atTech | 45% |
| TCU | 5% |
| at Baylor | 5% |
| TEXas | 35% |
| atOU | 2% |
| OSU | 30% |
| atKSU | 45% |
| atWVU | 40% |
With 38 entries as of 1:30pm the average Win % look like this:
| UNI | 75.27% |
| IOWA | 59.70% |
| atToledo | 57.30% |
| KU | 80.53% |
| atTech | 42.54% |
| TCU | 5.34% |
| at Baylor | 2.64% |
| TEXas | 40.89% |
| atOU | 3.05% |
| OSU | 26.78% |
| atKSU | 37.49% |
| atWVU | 38.92% |
In the 5000 replicate MC run, the season probabilities look like this, with average predicted Wins as 4.701 and Losses as 7.299:
| # of Wins | Likelihood |
| 1 | 0.88% |
| 2 | 4.93% |
| 3 | 14.60% |
| 4 | 24.65% |
| 5 | 25.67% |
| 6 | 19.02% |
| 7 | 7.43% |
| 8 | 2.34% |
| 9 | 0.46% |
| 10 | 0.02% |
| 11 | 0.00% |
| 12 | 0.00% |
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