***Official Big 12 Expansion Thread '16***

[boone7247]

If we are dreaming which right now I am pretty sure we are.

If we are ranking where we could potentially end up.
1) B1G
2) SEC
3) ACC
4) Pac12
10) AAC

I think we land in one of the top four, just not sure which one. ISU is to good of school, to be frozen out. But who knows.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Dream scenario is the B1G takes on KU and ISU. Imagine ISU playing in a B1G West with Kansas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Illinois. I'm not sure there is a better geographic fit. Unfortunately the B1G Network already being on every TV package in Iowa makes ISU even more unappealing.

 

[Judoka]

Dream scenario is the B1G takes on KU and ISU. Imagine ISU playing in a B1G West with Kansas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Illinois. I'm not sure there is a better geographic fit. Unfortunately the B1G Network already being on every TV package in Iowa makes ISU even more unappealing.

Yeah, it would never happen but that would basically be a dream conference geographically. The only thing better would be if you swapped Missouri. for Northwestern. Every division away game would be drivable for a daytrip.

 

[CRCy]

The University Presidents are going to have their say this round. ISU fits way to well into the Big 10 not to be looked at. ISU also has a good loyal fan base that will buy up any new platform games will be on in the future. That should sit well. But who the hell knows.

While I agree it's the most logical fit, I just don't ever see it happening. Just far too many cons vs. pros against us. And we do have a loyal fan base but it is TINY compared to so many of the other options out there.

If and this is a massive if the big 12 broke apart I honestly think the Big 10 would be at the bottom of the list of "most realistic landing spots" with current P5 conferences.

 

[boone7247]

Here is the scenario I see playing out with ISU landing in the B1G.

UT goes ACC, they could also just park the olympic sports there and go indy for football (not likely) I think this is UTs best pick up if the B12 is going to fail. They can still have some weight to throw around, the SEC and B1G would neuter UT, IMHO.
OU Goes to the SEC - This is a natural fit, it gets OU in a good football conference also helps SEC get a little bit more in Texas, OU is huge in the DFW area.
OSU rides OU coat tails to the SEC - This is a little tougher to me, because OSU doesn't really fit in the SEC, in my mind, but i just don't see OK legislature letting OU run away from OSU.

That leaves 6 teams

KU - B1G fit - This hinges on KU being able to break away from KSU, I don't think the B1G would take KU with KSU.
KSU - Not a B1G fit - With KU in, KSU offers nothing to the B1G.
TCU - Not a B1G fit - Don't see them going to a religious school also DFW is way outside the footprint
TT - Not a BIG fit
WVU - Not a BIG Fit - Could potentially be the other SEC team if OU can get unbuckled from OSU.
ISU - Logical BIG fit, just doesn't move the needle much. But there should be plenty of money to go around. Also as you move away from the Cable/Satellite TV model, ISU lack of population gain becomes less of a concern.

It also works in ISU favor if for some reason, UT or OU decide to take 1 or 3 other teams to the Pac12. This is also when the SEC door may open for ISU, but I think if push came to shove, WVU would get in the SEC before ISU.

 

[laminak]

The only ways ISU gets into the Big 10 are due to government oversight (politicians getting involved of a P5 school getting cut) or if there is a concern about another conference invading their territory (preemptive grab or a handshake agreement). Otherwise the Big 10 will never add ISU since they're too tied to their network and we don't add much there for them.

 

[CyKings]

TCU will never be in Pac 12. Nor will Baylor or BYU. Notre Dame is not joining a conference in football unless forced to and there is nothing forcing them to.

It stands to reason that if they formed 4 super conferences, that would force Notre Dame's hand. Hard to make a 4 team playoff if there are 4 super conferences. There would be little debate that each of the super conferences gets a playoff spot.

Literally what I predicted would result from total chaos. If Texas or OU bolt from the big 12, the rest of the members will grasp for whatever league throws them a bone, regardless of what they would do now.

Big 10 if they stick to their "AAU requirement" (right now Nebraska violates it, but at the time they joined they were AAU), will literally only be able to pick KU, ISU, or Texas. If Texas bolts to the ACC as many have guessed (due to the ease of them turning longhorn network into an ACC network), then I like ISU's chances a little better to land in Big10. That being said, Big 10 would want to enhance their footprint, and they already have Iowa... so why not break the AAU rule and grab someone else instead. $$$ is the ruling factor these days, not academics.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

It stands to reason that if they formed 4 super conferences, that would force Notre Dame's hand. Hard to make a 4 team playoff if there are 4 super conferences. There would be little debate that each of the super conferences gets a playoff spot.

Literally what I predicted would result from total chaos. If Texas or OU bolt from the big 12, the rest of the members will grasp for whatever league throws them a bone, regardless of what they would do now.

Big 10 if they stick to their "AAU requirement" (right now Nebraska violates it, but at the time they joined they were AAU), will literally only be able to pick KU, ISU, or Texas. If Texas bolts to the ACC as many have guessed (due to the ease of them turning longhorn network into an ACC network), then I like ISU's chances a little better to land in Big10. That being said, Big 10 would want to enhance their footprint, and they already have Iowa... so why not break the AAU rule and grab someone else instead. $$$ is the ruling factor these days, not academics.

IMO the more likely outcome for the B1G would be to do nothing. If the B1G ever goes to 16, I think it will be ACC schools.

Georgia Tech and one of the North Carolina schools gets BTN on TV packages in Atlanta (#9 market), Charlotte (#22), Raleigh (#25), Greensboro (#46), etc. KU and ISU adds Kansas City (#33) and... that's it for top 60 markets.

I don't think conferences will necessarily be scrambling to get to 16 if the Big 12 falls apart. They'll do it if it makes sense, like if the SEC has the chance to take on OU and Okie State, or if the Pac-12 finally gets the package deal that they almost got twice before with UT/TTU/OU/OSU, but I dont think the Big Ten will feel any pressure to add Kansas and Iowa State - particularly Iowa State, as KU provides more value to them.

 

[HoopsTournament]

It stands to reason that if they formed 4 super conferences, that would force Notre Dame's hand. Hard to make a 4 team playoff if there are 4 super conferences. There would be little debate that each of the super conferences gets a playoff spot.

Literally what I predicted would result from total chaos. If Texas or OU bolt from the big 12, the rest of the members will grasp for whatever league throws them a bone, regardless of what they would do now.

Big 10 if they stick to their "AAU requirement" (right now Nebraska violates it, but at the time they joined they were AAU), will literally only be able to pick KU, ISU, or Texas. If Texas bolts to the ACC as many have guessed (due to the ease of them turning longhorn network into an ACC network), then I like ISU's chances a little better to land in Big10. That being said, Big 10 would want to enhance their footprint, and they already have Iowa... so why not break the AAU rule and grab someone else instead. $$$ is the ruling factor these days, not academics.

There will not be a 4-team playoff on 2025. It will be 8 team by then. At that point any reason for Notre Dame to ever join a conference is gone. They will not join a conference.

 

[heitclone]

There will not be a 4-team playoff on 2025. It will be 8 team by then. At that point any reason for Notre Dame to ever join a conference is gone. They will not join a conference.

Exactly, in an 8 team CFP, a two loss ND team probably gets in ever year.

 

[KcClone01]

I really like your thinking, unfortunately its not a zero sum game. Who's to say the B1G doesn't poach (When GOR expire in 2024ish) Pitt or Syracuse from the ACC? Or Colorado from the PAC12? Or Mizzou from the SEC (god knows that's their dream)? (If they are really only considering AAU schools for the B1G.)

I think your logic is right that ISU won't end up on the curb. But there are a lot of other interests at play.

Here is the scenario I see playing out with ISU landing in the B1G.

UT goes ACC, they could also just park the olympic sports there and go indy for football (not likely) I think this is UTs best pick up if the B12 is going to fail. They can still have some weight to throw around, the SEC and B1G would neuter UT, IMHO.
OU Goes to the SEC - This is a natural fit, it gets OU in a good football conference also helps SEC get a little bit more in Texas, OU is huge in the DFW area.
OSU rides OU coat tails to the SEC - This is a little tougher to me, because OSU doesn't really fit in the SEC, in my mind, but i just don't see OK legislature letting OU run away from OSU.

That leaves 6 teams

KU - B1G fit - This hinges on KU being able to break away from KSU, I don't think the B1G would take KU with KSU.
KSU - Not a B1G fit - With KU in, KSU offers nothing to the B1G.
TCU - Not a B1G fit - Don't see them going to a religious school also DFW is way outside the footprint
TT - Not a BIG fit
WVU - Not a BIG Fit - Could potentially be the other SEC team if OU can get unbuckled from OSU.
ISU - Logical BIG fit, just doesn't move the needle much. But there should be plenty of money to go around. Also as you move away from the Cable/Satellite TV model, ISU lack of population gain becomes less of a concern.

It also works in ISU favor if for some reason, UT or OU decide to take 1 or 3 other teams to the Pac12. This is also when the SEC door may open for ISU, but I think if push came to shove, WVU would get in the SEC before ISU.

 

[boone7247]

I really like your thinking, unfortunately its not a zero sum game. Who's to say the B1G doesn't poach (When GOR expire in 2024ish) Pitt or Syracuse from the ACC? Or Colorado from the PAC12? Or Mizzou from the SEC (god knows that's their dream)? (If they are really only considering AAU schools for the B1G.)

I think your logic is right that ISU won't end up on the curb. But there are a lot of other interests at play.

If this goes as being discussed our GOR is up in 2025 or there abouts. The ACC just extended their's to sometime in the 2030s. Provided the ACC network gets off the ground no teams from the ACC are moving anywhere.

Colorado, is possible I suppose the GOR of the Pac12 is up before the B12. My guess is they will get their **** together before the B12. So not likely Colorado takes reasonable travel and geographical fit and throws it out the window to start traveling over half the country.

Mizzou is in the SEC, nothing is holding them their, or at least last I check the they have no GOR. I just don't see them disrupting everything again to move to the B1G they have already had enough issues on that campus. Could be wrong though. Also Not sure a move from the SEC to the B1G would be incentivized.

There are plenty of reasons we don't get in the B1G, I was just laying out the scenario I could potentially see happening that would get us in. I ranked where I would like to be if the B12 implodes. Not what I think will happen. Also lets not forget while we don't like Iowa on the football field, and over the past few years they have been run horribly, they are still governed by the same people that govern ISU. Push comes to shove we have an ally in the B1G we don't have anywhere else.

 

[clonedude]

If the Big 12 implodes, I really fear for the future of ISU athletics.

Sure, we are a very large school and we fill our stadium better than 3/4ths of the country, and we are an AAU institution, BUT..... outside of central Iowa virtually nobody in the country is interested in watching us play anything, even basketball.

Iowa and ISU is a HUGE rivalry football game, but absolutely nobody else in the country cares about that game, or ISU or Iowa for that matter. Those are just the facts.

The B1G won't be adding ISU, it doesn't do anything for them. We'll have to join forces with KU or KSU, or both, and maybe some other Big 12 schools and try to join another conference as a package deal or something. That might be our only hope in staying a P5 or P4 or whatever it ends up being.

 

[Gorm]

If the playoff becomes 8 teams, there is very little reason for the Big12 to break apart. As long as egos are kept in check...

 

[awd4cy]

If the playoff becomes 8 teams, there is very little reason for the Big12 to break apart. As long as egos are kept in check...

That's the problem. I don't think anything can be done to keep Oklahoma and Texas' egos in check.

 

[Cdiedrick]

That's the problem. I don't think anything can be done to keep Oklahoma and Texas' egos in check.

I disagree, right now they are a big fish in a small pond, a different conference they are just another fish. If they are smart they will allow 2-4 teams (we need to poach) or atleast extend the GOR. Right now I favor Cinci and Houston

 

[scyclonekid]

Iowa state fits in the Big Ten model well and by then who knows what cable TV will look like. IF we have a good shot at landing in the big ten then imo later big twelve.

 

[Gorm]

That's the problem. I don't think anything can be done to keep Oklahoma and Texas' egos in check.

Which makes you wonder why they would leave. Any conference they go to would be keeping them in check for sure.

 

[CRCy]

Which makes you wonder why they would leave. Any conference they go to would be keeping them in check for sure.

The only reason they would leave is if there is more money elsewhere. And I am not talking a million or two but $10 million plus a year. As of right now that isn't the case, in the future? Who knows!

The way the Big 12 is currently set up benefits them a great deal and something they won't be able to say in any other conference where they will get the same cut as anybody else.

The only other reason would be for stability.

 

[HoopsTournament]

The only reason they would leave is if there is more money elsewhere. And I am not talking a million or two but $10 million plus a year. As of right now that isn't the case, in the future? Who knows!

The way the Big 12 is currently set up benefits them a great deal and something they won't be able to say in any other conference where they will get the same cut as anybody else.

The only other reason would be for stability.

The stability excuse for OU and UT is a load of crap. They are the ones that would be causing the instability. The other 8 teams are not looking to leave.