With opening of conference season tonight I was looking at expectation reset articles after the Non-Con. Thought I would share them.
Conference Resets: Revisiting and Revising Our Preseason Predictions
BIG 12
Our No. 1 preseason team nationally, Kansas, was of course a no-brainer pick to win the Big 12. And the Jayhawks are still the favorites for their 15th straight title, having only recently dropped their first game of the season (on the road, while missing center Udoka Azubuike). But after that?
Kansas State (No. 2) has no top-50 wins yet, lost at Tulsa and is now indefinitely without Dean Wade, and the Wildcats are going to need to find more offense to seriously contend for the conference title. The departures of Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles had a larger-than-anticipated impact on West Virginia, and our predicted third-place Big 12 team feels ticketed for the bottom half of the conference (the Mountaineers’ No. 13 national rank from our preseason top 25 is more like a pipe dream). But don't let the early struggles by those two make you think there are no worthy challengers to Kansas.
• Texas Tech appears to have been severely overlooked by us but is probably the most likely team to threaten the Jayhawks’ record. We pegged the Red Raiders for sixth in the conference and 41st nationally, but a big leap by Jarrett Culver, a couple key transfers and their elite defense have powered them to No. 10 in kenpom's efficiency rankings. Plus, Tech has plenty of time to get better still before it faces Kansas for the first time on Feb. 2.
• Another team we didn’t see coming was Oklahoma, who was an afterthought just outside the conference basement at No. 9. A surprising 11–1 start has the Sooners in the AP top 25, and while it might still be a bridge too far to contend for the title, they could easily be in play for a top-half finish.
• Finally, there’s the curious case of 10–2 Iowa State. The Cyclones’ wins to date aren’t impressive, with Missouri being the best team they’ve beat, but they’ve acquitted themselves extremely well considering all of the absences they’ve dealt with in the first two months, including not getting star sophomore Lindell Wigginton back until just before Christmas. Talen Horton-Tucker has been a revelation as a freshman, and Iowa State looks like a sneaky Big 12 contender.
Roundtable: New Year's Resolutions, Sleeper Conference Contenders and More
WHO ARE YOUR TOP-THREE SLEEPER TEAMS THAT COULD STEAL A REGULAR-SEASON CONFERENCE TITLE?
https://www.si.com/college-basketba...amson-unc-nassir-little-new-years-resolutions
Geary: Iowa State (Big 12): The Cyclones finally have the full strength team they've been waiting for, and if Lindell Wigginton gets his outside shot going again they'll be a tough out in the Big 12.
https://www.si.com/college-basketba...erence-rankings-acc-big-ten-sec-duke-kentucky
Woo: Iowa State (Big 12): The Cyclones have their full complement, they zip the ball around the perimeter, and quietly have as much talent as anyone in the conference not named Kansas. They have ground to cover, but they’re not far off.
Big 12 Basketball Power Rankings: Kansas still top team entering conference play?
https://bustingbrackets.com/2018/12...nsas-still-top-team-entering-conference-play/
NCAA Basketball: 10 most impactful transfers entering conference play in 2019 (Shayok listed)
https://bustingbrackets.com/2019/01...transfers-entering-conference-play-in-2019/9/
Big 12 reset: Who makes a run at Kansas atop the league?
https://collegebasketball.nbcsports...et-who-makes-a-run-at-kansas-atop-the-league/
THE ALL BIG 12 FIRST TEAM
MARIAL SHAYOK, IOWA STATE: The Cyclones are a surprising 10-2 while weathering injuries and suspensions, and the Virginia transfer has played a big part. He left Tony Bennett’s program searching greener offensive pastures, and he’s now leading the Big 12 in scoring with 20.1 points per game.
POSTSEASON PREDICTIONS
NCAA: Kansas, Texas Tech, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State, Oklahoma, West Virginia
NIT: Texas, Baylor
OTHER/NO POSTSEASON: Oklahoma State
THEY’LL GET EIGHT BIDS
Yeah, I know, I only picked the league to get seven teams up above, but let’s get bold here. Assuming West Virginia gets things squared away and Texas starts looking more like a blue blood, there’s strong shot the conference gets 80 percent of its membership into the Big Dance. That’ll probably come on the heels of a lot of conference records hovering around .500, but the conference has built enough of a reputation that it wouldn’t be punished for mediocrity but rather for high-level parity.
2018-19 Big 12 expert picks: Predicted order of finish, most overrated and underrated teams at mid-term
https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...t-overrated-and-underrated-teams-at-mid-term/
Overrated: Iowa State
Not an easy choice, because I dig Iowa State's pieces and potential. I love Lindell Wigginton, I'm infatuated by Talen Horton-Tucker's NBA upside, and I'm mesmerized by what Marial Shayok, the Virginia transfer, has accomplished for ISU. Still, its 10-2 record -- most of which it has accomplished without Wigginton -- may be a bit of fool's gold. The Cyclones have only played three teams inside KenPom's top-100, and they are 1-2 -- with losses to Iowa and Arizona, and a win over Missouri -- during that span. Of those three, I'd argue Missouri is the least impressive squad of the litter.
Getting Wigginton back is going to be huge for Iowa State. As a true freshman last season, he led ISU in scoring and shot a remarkable 40.1 percent. But this team has a pretty significantly different makeup overall. Donovan Jackson is gone, Cameron Lard is being cast in a smaller role, and the largest piece of all -- Wigginton -- is going to have to cut his teeth this season without the benefit of a nonconference runway. He played 18 minutes against Eastern Illinois on Dec. 21, and will play next in the Big 12 opener against Oklahoma State.
Steve Prohm and Co. have the pieces to be a tourney team, and I think they definitely can secure a winning record in Big 12 play, but our experts have them finishing as high as second and as low as sixth. As you can see in the table above, I'm on the lower end of that spectrum for now. It still has a lot to prove to boost its postseason profile and show it can win consistently against top-end competition.
Freshman of the Year: Talen Horton-Tucker, Iowa State
With Lindell Wigginton missing all but one nonconference game with injury, Chicago product Talen Horton-Tucker has emerged as a reliable force for Iowa State. Horton-Tucker impacts the game in a number of ways as a rebounder, facilitator, scorer and finisher, and he brings that precious V word -- versatility -- to the Cyclones. He's a linebacker playing a guard spot in the Big 12, but with grace and finesse of a gazelle.
