People respond with "funny" but as an engineer, the 100-year storm has changed dramatically over the last 20 years. The frequency and intensity of storms has increased. It's not debatable. The cause may be, but it's NOT the same.
Depends on which one - last time I knew there were two Radissons - one in downtown Davenport; one in downtown Moline. The one in Moline I’m 95% certain is fine (just dealing with the mess that is I-74 since they’re building the new bridge and much of the existing traffic is being rerouted). The one in Davenport I’m 95% certain is being impacted, just the extent I’m not sure. As was said, call them.
Have you met humans lately? Surprised it only took 6000 years for them to screw it up.
I can't figure out how to post a link to Facebook, but if you look at Great River Brewery's page, their place is under water.
Owned by good friends of mine. It has 2-3 feet of water inside. Folks had just a few minutes to get out once the levee was compromised. Beers still sitting on the bar. They say the levee did not break but rather is became inundated with water and kind of dissolved.
If you are in a flood you are already having a bad day. Why wouldn't you take that unfinished beer with you?
They don't allow glass outside...If you are in a flood you are already having a bad day. Why wouldn't you take that unfinished beer with you?
I'm sorry, but that is not true at all. A 100-year flood has a 1% chance of happening in any given year. What does that mean in real-world terms? Over the course of a 30 year mortgage, a house in the 100 year floodplain has a 26% chance of getting flooded out.
https://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/106/pdf/100-year-flood-handout-042610.pdf
A 500 year storm can happen multiple times a year. It's kind of misnamed. Same with 100-year. It's a layman's terms for a probability storm.
500-year = 1/500(.2%) chance in any given year.
100-year = 1/100(1%) chance in any given year.
Your point that they are happening even more frequently is entirely true. What is considered a 100-year storm and 500-year storm have to be adjusted over time. Depending on your location.
A lot of ground has been tiled over the past 15 years due to the ag boom. In addition, reduced tillage is pretty much the norm these days. It preserves top soil, but it also increased runoff. But this event is primarily due to lower than average temperatures delaying the melting of the snow pack.
But dammit! Climate change fits my political views so I'm going to blame CO2!
But dammit! Climate change fits my political views so I'm going to blame CO2!
Yes, lets definitely not discuss one of the contributors to events like this when discussing it.
Mom has lung cancer. Let's talk about her hospital care and estate planning. Why doesn't matter at this point.
What?! Let's talk about how smoking is bad, instead.
Directly from the article you posted:
Because the 1-percent AEP flood has a 1 in 100 chance of being equaled or exceeded in any 1 year, and it has an average recurrence interval of 100 years, it often is referred to as the “100-year flood”.
Now my comments:
"because statistically that's how often they have historically happened" I probably should have said on average but that's what i meant with statistically.
Next time i'll be sure to cite my sources so it matches the description word for word. But it is what i said...over a thousand years...you'd have a 100 year flood 10 times and a 500 year flood twice. On average. Which gives you a 1% chance every year for a 100 year and a .2% for a 500 year.
Either way it's entirely true....... and it's getting worse.
I was talking in averages....as in exactly what the 100 year and 500 year flood are...averages over time. I'm not sure how anyone could think i meant that they couldn't happen closer than that... And yes...these things do need to be updated because these storms are intensifying in frequency which is entirely the point! I don't know what the 100 year or 500 year flood levels are there but if we've had 7 occurrences since 1993 in the all time top 10.... That should tell you something!
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Yes, it tells you that the values for a 1% flood that were calculated in the 1960's may need to be adjusted due to a number of reasons that have been mentioned above, including the building of levees, tiling of fields, increased impervious cover of land, etc.
So how was I wrong? And do you mean that the actions of humans are able to affect the environment? I'm really not certain what you're arguing here. Are you saying that this is entirely due to landscape changes and not climate changes?
Locations and such, sure.
But using words that a figment said in a story to define as 'truth' is absurd.
Pretty sure there's not a species alive that not only screws up everything around them, but screws themselves up too.
And such meaning things like people who are prominent figures being recorded in Roman records as having lived when the Bible says they lived in the places it says they lived and events like the flood and Noah’s Ark having been proven archeologically to have occurred.
But I’m sure it’s nothing more than a fiction story.
