Angie

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And you said the ISU number was 906. Where did you get that number for ISU students because Wintersteen showed 633 for the 14 days?

My point was that the NY Times article is not for just ISU, or testing done at ISU. It's for the entirety of Story County. 906 (from the NYT article) lines up with the Johns Hopkins numbers that I linked. Wintersteen's 633 are either just students tested at ISU, or ISU students (not including everyone they have infected in the community) - but that does not matter to the NYT numbers. They are for Ames/Story County as a whole. I don't know why she would argue with the numbers for the entire city (which is what is stipulated) saying they don't match ISU's numbers - they aren't just for ISU.

You can, however, look at the fact that ISU students (as defined by Wintersteen) comprise 70% of that total in a bubble. That's fairly shameful.
 
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BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
My point was that the NY Times article is not for just ISU, or testing done at ISU. It's for the entirety of Story County. 906 (from the NYT article) lines up with the Johns Hopkins numbers that I linked. Wintersteen's 633 are either just students tested at ISU, or ISU students (not including everyone they have infected in the community) - but that does not matter to the NYT numbers. They are for Ames/Story County as a whole. I don't know why she would argue with the numbers for the entire city (which is what is stipulated) saying they don't match ISU's numbers - they aren't just for ISU.

You can, however, look at the fact that ISU students (as defined by Wintersteen) comprise 70% of that total in a bubble. That's fairly shameful.

How many of the students do you think are positive for Covid at all times on campus?
 

Angie

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How many of the students do you think are positive for Covid at all times on campus?

I don't understand the wording of your question, as stated.
 

BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
I don't understand the wording of your question, as stated.

What would you estimate the number of students with Covid to be now on campus? 100? 500? 2500? If 20% that would be roughly 6000 students would have active cases as we type.
 

Angie

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What would you estimate the number of students with Covid to be now on campus? 100? 500? 2500? If 20% that would be roughly 6000 students would have active cases as we type.

I have no idea - I do think the number is likely much higher than the 633. And that depends on if you mean living in the dorms, or just actively students. Since only students who live in the dorms were originally tested (not anyone living off-campus), there's likely no way to know the exact parties/bars that started it. Even though the testing is there, they still aren't encouraging people to get tested. Our son was just sent home from daycare today because his teacher one day last week is an ISU student who tested positive over the weekend - so he, the other teachers, and the other kids who were around her are all exposed and were sent home. We are self-quarantining our entire family for the two weeks, but she alone could have infected a dozen people with firsthand contact in one narrow application alone. That doesn't count wherever she lives, any stores she went to, etc., etc.
 

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RonBurgundy

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KSU announced 25% capacity allowed.

KU announced no fans. LOL. Big sacrifice.
 

knowlesjam

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My point was that the NY Times article is not for just ISU, or testing done at ISU. It's for the entirety of Story County. 906 (from the NYT article) lines up with the Johns Hopkins numbers that I linked. Wintersteen's 633 are either just students tested at ISU, or ISU students (not including everyone they have infected in the community) - but that does not matter to the NYT numbers. They are for Ames/Story County as a whole. I don't know why she would argue with the numbers for the entire city (which is what is stipulated) saying they don't match ISU's numbers - they aren't just for ISU.

You can, however, look at the fact that ISU students (as defined by Wintersteen) comprise 70% of that total in a bubble. That's fairly shameful.
Every big school (over 20,000 students) is seeing numbers like this...the choice to bring the kids back on campus was going to result in this...it was inevitable. Does this make them shameful...that's for history to decide.

Now, let's see a comparison between schools like Iowa State, with students on campus, and another school, like one of the California schools, who is 100% online with no students on campus. Which has a higher number of cases...it might surprise you.
 
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BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
I have no idea - I do think the number is likely much higher than the 633. And that depends on if you mean living in the dorms, or just actively students. Since only students who live in the dorms were originally tested (not anyone living off-campus), there's likely no way to know the exact parties/bars that started it. Even though the testing is there, they still aren't encouraging people to get tested. Our son was just sent home from daycare today because his teacher one day last week is an ISU student who tested positive over the weekend - so he, the other teachers, and the other kids who were around her are all exposed and were sent home. We are self-quarantining our entire family for the two weeks, but she alone could have infected a dozen people with firsthand contact in one narrow application alone. That doesn't count wherever she lives, any stores she went to, etc., etc.

I am curious what people consider “normal” rates to be. According to the tests we had, they were very consistent at 2.2% and that was from a large swath of Iowa and the US. So that would say that out of 30k students there should be 660 that will have positive tests on any day. Where this gets difficult is how much of the contact tracing and other non symptom testing is just hitting people who had it and never knew. The CDC is saying that people can test positive up to 3 months after having had COVID. That may mean that you may have had it on July 4th and did not know, but your co-worker gets it and you get tested and guess what, you just got two weeks of quarantine. Good chance your whole family gets told to hunker down even though you haven’t actually had it for a couple months.

It gets so hard to know the correct answers, they more who get it, the more undetected ones we will find also. I am not as surprised as others with a spike this last week, I expected it before the reports is the parties happened. Situations like this always become self-fulfilling prophecies. If there are 3x as many cases as there are positives, that would throw us around 2000-2500 probably. I believe the numbers will drop after this week. Then things will start to even out. Just my thoughts.
 

cycloneworld

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Isn’t that what the mask requirement is for? Honestly, I don’t get why the “OMG we all need to wear masks and we’d be over this in two weeks “ crowd and the “OMG we can’t have large gatherings even with masks required “ crowd is such a large subset.

What is there not to get? Health experts have recommended masks, distancing, AND no large gatherings.
 

Cycsk

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Looking at the immediate area of our seats I would say that they definitely took into account seat holders who were opting in or out. We have a block of 7 in two rows that aren't exactly in front/behind each other. Our seats are blocked off and the two singles behind/next to us are listed as filled as well as the seats right next to our front row. They definitely intentionally blanked our seats.



Interesting. Now I need to take a better look to see what they have planned for our block.
 

Cycsk

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That would make sense if the spacing was regular. However, in our section, there are more densely packed irregular groupings down low that thin out toward the top of the section. Things might be different in different $$$ sections. We're in W, upper deck, center field.


I stand corrected by you and Velo.
 
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