its was stated that UT and OU were responsible for half of this 409.2 mil. i dont entirely believe this because it takes 2 teams to play any game and they cant all be OU and UT. the other 8 added the value of extra inventory.
but if that is true then 1/2 of 409.2 is 204.6 and 1/8th of that is 25.575. so at a minimum ISU generates 25.575 mil in revenue. i think the actual number is well north of there, especially with the current state of the football program.
for comparison, 1/14th of 789.9 is 56.4 mil. but OSU, UM, and PSU are also probably responsible for at least 1/3 or more of that.
I think your $26M for ISU is probably an absolute worst case scenario for a couple of reasons:
1. As we have seen with viewership numbers, ISU is toward the high side of the "others"
2. While FB is obviously driving the ship, the last couple years notwithstanding, ISUs BB has added more value than most in the conference
ISU is moving in the right direction in terms of value both because of the success in football and value is shifting more toward fanbases that will proactively seek out and pay for content as streaming and a la carte approaches to media are becoming important.
If Fox pushes the BIG to expand, it would take crazy moves to get teams that raise the per team revenue. It would mean either poaching something like Oregon and USC or overcome the ACC GoR to get Clemson and the BIGs white whale, ND. If not ND then Clemson and another ACC team like FSU.
It could just be that the BIG has to expand this year due to Fox, is exploring the options for the big fish, and then ends up having to make a move with a couple teams that aren't going to instantly provide big-time value.
When you are projecting out 5 years, both because of the model of media in the future and its fanbase and the trend of the FB program, ISU looks better than most think. Plus adding KU (and hopefully once again ISU) will lock the conference in as the dominant MBB player. While that's a fraction of the value of football, it's still something.
That said, I think a BIG move would take a long time, just because BIG is going to exhaust some of the big splash moves from the ACC and PAC first, as those would be better for the BIG if they could pull them off. It's just whether or not they can pull it off, and if they can't, are they compelled to expand.