Report: OU & Texas reach out to join SEC

[Gunnerclone]

At this point I have to question whether I even want to be a sports fan. Pro sports are ok, but I'm not invested in them.

College sports were special. They aren't now. They just aren't.

Women's college soccer and men’s and women’s ice hockey is great.

 

[jsb]

isn’t he a Texas guy? Why the hell is he talking about this?

I’ll be honest though, yesterday I felt about 30% good about our chance to end up in the only positive situation in this mess. And that’s the big10.

today? I feel about 5% good about it.

 

[NorthCyd]

I am listening too and getting pissed off! Even if it ends up being true, pissing off a large part of your audience is not great. I think Iowa State has a good shot to end up somewhere in a power conference but not sure. I wasn't upset by the video. I just looked it as we need to say something but can't really "say" anything. I think Condon would be all too happy to see ISU drop to the abyss even though it would be terrible for their business.

I'm sure they just look at it as telling the "truth", but it is nothing but their own spin on things. They may end up being right, but there are lots of ways this thing can go and they aren't willing to acknowledge anything but the worst possible outcome for ISU when discussing things. We all know Trent is a tavern hawk trying his best to come off as fair, and Miller has always had an axe to grind with Pollard going way back to his days with Marty. Those two used to hate Pollard and go after him hard. These days Marty is complimentary in general, but that old axe comes out in situations like this.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

View attachment 87503 OK - now that people are depressed after reading JP and WWs body language and were somehow thinking they weren't going to say exactly what was needed to keep us out of GoR trouble, here's a positive manifesto on why ISU is in better shape than the typical fan and Twittiot realize.

In 2019 ISU was 21st in the country in attendance. That's despite being not exactly a vacation destination to make a long weekend, but also being one of two geographical outliers in the conference. So, there's no visiting team attendance padding (looking at you, Northwestern). In addition, ISU was certainly capacity constrained.

Also, as far as TV ratings go, I think comparing across conferences is tricky, since time slot, opponent, channel all play a role. Plus, viewership gets boosted by eyes from other teams within a conference, so being in a bigger conference with better overall TV viewership helps. Nevertheless, I pulled a few random TV ratings numbers from last year to do a quick comparison from here: https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/

Now, there seem to be a couple games missing, and for the reasons above you don't want to bet the farm on ratings, but here are a few schools I picked as comparisons to ISU. I also showed what happened if you subtract out conf. champ. games, bowls, and even big time opponents (or Iowa-Neb. since that was something of an outlier for each).

You made two great points, the only schools that bring fans to JTS are UT, OU and KSU, the rest of the conference might bring a few hundred at most. The majority of the games its just ISU fans. 21st in attendence, which places us right behind EIU which was 20th.

2nd point when you read about the value of the teams tv ratings a little closer, the data was taken from the 2018 and 2019 season, FOX and ESPN chose either OU or UT for 33 of the 38 games to be broadcast on the main network. Well games on the main network always out draw teams on the side networks, so you are really not comparing the same thing. Look at any week of games and the games on the major networks always outdraw the secondary games on BTN or ESPN's other channels. After looking at the numbers its not as bad as the numbers look, it would be interesting to see how the 5 games that did not include either UT or OU drew for ratings. Without those numbers we really cannot make a good comparison to the value of the other 8 schools.

 

[Daserop]

View attachment 87503 OK - now that people are depressed after reading JP and WWs body language and were somehow thinking they weren't going to say exactly what was needed to keep us out of GoR trouble, here's a positive manifesto on why ISU is in better shape than the typical fan and Twittiot realize.

In 2019 ISU was 21st in the country in attendance. That's despite being not exactly a vacation destination to make a long weekend, but also being one of two geographical outliers in the conference. So, there's no visiting team attendance padding (looking at you, Northwestern). In addition, ISU was certainly capacity constrained.

Also, as far as TV ratings go, I think comparing across conferences is tricky, since time slot, opponent, channel all play a role. Plus, viewership gets boosted by eyes from other teams within a conference, so being in a bigger conference with better overall TV viewership helps. Nevertheless, I pulled a few random TV ratings numbers from last year to do a quick comparison from here: https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/

Now, there seem to be a couple games missing, and for the reasons above you don't want to bet the farm on ratings, but here are a few schools I picked as comparisons to ISU. I also showed what happened if you subtract out conf. champ. games, bowls, and even big time opponents (or Iowa-Neb. since that was something of an outlier for each).

So by the two metrics that matter for ad revenue in the future, ISU stacks up far better than people think. Now, does ISU represent some sort of windfall for a conference picking them up? No. But a team like ISU that has demonstrated a fanbase that will watch games, seek out and pay for content that is likely to take conditions favorable to a conference that adds them can certainly make sense.

This is way too logical. Considering that, I believe none of it will be taken into account but those in power.

I totally agree with your investigation

 

[qwerty]

I think the conferences add value (aka how much the conference itself makes) when they add schools. More eyes on their product (network subscriptions) but the slices of the pie get smaller when you add a school like ISU.

B1G makes more money but schools bring home a smaller share.

(my opinion, kind of guessing)

I looked at the numbers slightly. As someone else mentioned, Iowa State has greatly improved our position in the last 10 years. We were #44 in AD revenue in 2019 but when you strip out state support of those schools we move up to #38 in AD revenue generation. The AD revenue was $95.4 million with ISU generating $93.4 million of that. Now that includes the approx. $40 million in conference payments which is the slice of the pie that is in jeopardy.

Very Worst case, ISU slides to an enhanced AAC level conference. The AAC may only get $10-12 million today but if the new conference includes former Big 12 teams, I would think the new contract would bump up. Still probably only $20 million or so and thus ISU takes a $20 million hit on conference payment.
IF the fan/public support remains constant that would be the only reduction, however, with a diminished public perception and visibility, the support and public sales MAY also drop some so let's ballpark another $5 million off that.

That equates ISU instead of building to $100-$105 million AD budget probably dropping back to $75-$80 million AD budget. This is better than any existing G5 conference and on par with the lowest earning schools in current P5 conferences.

People state Texas underperforms with their $200+ million budget (and they do). Iowa is over $150 million and what do they have to show for that level of spend? Iowa AD $ is #5 in B1G, is the AD performance top 5? Iowa State is #6 (out of 8 public, supposedly Baylor is more, TCU less) in Big12. I would say our AD performance is top half (probably #4-5 in all sports) so ISU is definitely getting value for the dollar.

Rank	School	Conf	Revenue	Expenses	Rev Generate
50	Georgia Tech	ACC	$85,802,112	$96,334,831	$77,544,930
47	North Carolina State	ACC	$92,724,548	$90,100,025	$85,872,559
42	Virginia Tech	ACC	$96,772,489	$93,961,068	$86,494,151
36	North Carolina	ACC	$107,812,619	$110,809,706	$98,649,245
32	Virginia	ACC	$110,219,117	$112,621,238	$91,789,316
22	Clemson	ACC	$133,861,515	$131,978,513	$128,259,075
19	Louisville	ACC	$139,955,824	$151,167,940	$134,032,007
12	Florida State	ACC	$152,757,883	$150,147,316	$137,150,864
48	Kansas State	Big 12	$89,919,822	$83,079,244	$89,919,822
45	Oklahoma State	Big 12	$95,335,482	$95,008,483	$95,247,842
44	Iowa State	Big 12	$95,411,884	$95,315,376	$93,357,570
43	Texas Tech	Big 12	$96,625,347	$95,132,604	$93,107,675
40	West Virginia	Big 12	$102,680,928	$98,249,890	$98,778,029
28	Kansas	Big 12	$121,553,307	$108,881,800	$119,807,033
8	Oklahoma	Big 12	$163,126,695	$157,958,270	$163,126,695
1	Texas	Big 12	$223,879,781	$204,234,897	$223,879,781
39	Rutgers	Big Ten	$103,251,280	$103,167,344	$73,391,885
33	Maryland	Big Ten	$108,796,303	$108,785,924	$83,432,588
31	Purdue	Big Ten	$110,844,907	$102,026,477	$110,844,907
29	Illinois	Big Ten	$118,565,501	$120,168,951	$109,912,686
25	Indiana	Big Ten	$127,832,628	$114,822,135	$124,878,123
24	Minnesota	Big Ten	$130,456,454	$129,450,256	$122,483,722
21	Nebraska	Big Ten	$136,233,460	$124,148,206	$136,233,460
18	Michigan State	Big Ten	$140,010,865	$135,655,740	$139,125,175
14	Iowa	Big Ten	$151,976,026	$146,282,275	$151,326,026
11	Wisconsin	Big Ten	$157,660,107	$154,621,828	$154,631,107
6	Penn State	Big Ten	$164,529,326	$160,369,805	$164,529,326
4	Michigan	Big Ten	$197,820,410	$190,952,175	$197,558,637
3	Ohio State	Big Ten	$210,548,239	$220,572,956	$210,548,239
54	Washington State	Pac-12	$71,691,339	$76,258,966	$66,229,324
51	Oregon State	Pac-12	$82,058,386	$82,364,021	$70,246,661
49	California	Pac-12	$87,500,758	$106,676,734	$87,500,758
46	Colorado	Pac-12	$94,935,198	$98,413,284	$82,652,173
41	Utah	Pac-12	$99,526,695	$96,000,514	$86,932,182
38	Arizona	Pac-12	$105,091,389	$100,565,835	$83,205,222
35	UCLA	Pac-12	$108,412,967	$127,339,042	$105,835,754
27	Arizona State	Pac-12	$121,698,840	$118,404,377	$102,342,706
26	Oregon	Pac-12	$127,508,498	$128,943,543	$127,055,574
23	Washington	Pac-12	$133,792,677	$131,317,636	$129,640,713
37	Missouri	SEC	$106,610,244	$108,398,447	$105,595,244
34	Mississippi	SEC	$108,442,428	$113,013,400	$105,347,032
30	Mississippi State	SEC	$112,273,809	$98,832,615	$112,273,809
20	Arkansas	SEC	$137,497,788	$129,620,361	$137,497,788
17	South Carolina	SEC	$140,695,659	$136,879,732	$140,695,659
16	Tennessee	SEC	$143,765,903	$142,976,173	$143,765,903
15	Kentucky	SEC	$150,435,842	$144,886,246	$150,435,842
13	Auburn	SEC	$152,455,416	$139,260,711	$147,194,164
10	LSU	SEC	$157,787,782	$148,977,880	$157,787,782
9	Florida	SEC	$159,706,937	$141,829,002	$157,445,164
7	Alabama	SEC	$164,090,889	$185,317,681	$161,436,338
5	Georgia	SEC	$174,042,482	$143,299,554	$170,533,632
2	Texas A&M	SEC	$212,748,002	$169,012,456	$212,748,002

 

[Brandon]

 

[surly]

 

[Drew0311]

If you take Texas money away, they are no better than Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt and the rest of the non power teams in the SEC. honestly Texas football history has to be one of the most underachieving sports "Franchises" in history. One National title since 1970 with all that money, Talent and facilities? What a joke of a team.

 

[Dandy]

This all now depends on the Big 10, if they want to expand, and take KU and ISU, we are good. If not then KU will end up in the ACC, more of a basketball league, and ISU, OSU, KSU and TT end up as either a eastern pod in the Pac 12 or the 4 eastern schools in the new east division along with CU, Utah and the Arizona schools. Pac 12 expands their footprint into the central time zone allowing them to have 11:00 games instead of asking the Western schools to play at 10:00 and 9:00 locally to start a game.

This is pretty much where my thoughts are too and the more I think about it, the more I think we are heading to the PAC-16 East.

Unless the B1G expands out of the kindness of their heart and for good PR, they don’t need to.

 

[Drew0311]

This is pretty much where my thoughts are too and the more I think about it, the more I think we are heading to the PAC-16 East.

Unless the B1G expands out of the kindness of their heart and for good PR, they don’t need to.

I am fine with that. Not the best fit, however, USC, Arizona State and the rest are good power 5 football. Plus, I am moving to Scottsdale next yer and I could get with being able to go cheer on the Cyclones.

 

[ISUCyclones2015]

I am fine with that. Not the best fit, however, USC, Arizona State and the rest are good power 5 football. Plus, I am moving to Scottsdale next yer and I could get with being able to go cheer on the Cyclones.

Tell all those Scottsdale cougars I said "sup"

 

[iowastatefan1929]

Get the Pac 12 in wild country is the way. Im emailing them all to pitch it and to call Jamie to set this up.

 

[CarrollCyclone]

What you’re saying makes sense, but KU and ISU wouldn’t be making remotely close to what other B1G members make for a while. Rutgers, Maryland and Nebraska still aren’t making equal I believe. We would definitely have to bring some sort of positives to the conference though.

Jamie will put us in the best position with the B1G and Pac12. We’ve got a lot going for us in comparison to other schools.

Nebraska is receiving a full share now for the past couple years. I don't believe Rutgers is as of yet, and Maryland won't for quite some time.......they received a ton of money up front to help offset a bunch of debt and their exit fees. They receive a smaller share until those monies are paid back.

I've seen quite a few stories from different sources that with their next TV contract, the B10 as it is currently is configured, is expecting to earn more than $70 million/year per school. So a new member added would need to bring in that much revenue to "break even" as the existing member are not going to want to dilute their revenue distribution for the sake of expanding.

 

[Lemmiwinks]

I've seen quite a few stories from different sources that with their next TV contract, the B10 as it is currently is configured, is expecting to earn more than $70 million/year per school. So a new member added would need to bring in that much revenue to "break even" as the existing member are not going to want to dilute their revenue distribution for the sake of expanding.

I've seen this mentioned quite a few times also. Have you seen any any info for what the remaining B12 teams are estimated to bring in if a move were to occur?

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Nebraska is receiving a full share now for the past couple years. I don't believe Rutgers is as of yet, and Maryland won't for quite some time.......they received a ton of money up front to help offset a bunch of debt and their exit fees. They receive a smaller share until those monies are paid back.

I've seen quite a few stories from different sources that with their next TV contract, the B10 as it is currently is configured, is expecting to earn more than $70 million/year per school. So a new member added would need to bring in that much revenue to "break even" as the existing member are not going to want to dilute their revenue distribution for the sake of expanding.

Maryland owes the Big 10 140 million which it borrowed against its future tv rights as you say.

That 70 million number would be lower if the league expands, if you move from 14 to 16 teams then there is also going to be more money coming in. Now is it 70 million, no, but there would be an increase there, just for having more content to sell to the consumer.

 

[Dandy]

View attachment 87505

If they’re proud to hold a unique position of only P5 in Mountain and Pacific time zones, I could see them wanting to expand east to the central zone to say “… only P5 in 3 time zones.” Plus they almost went to 16 teams ten years ago. Why not now? They need to spice it up (easily worst P5) and the new commish can make a huge splash quickly. Good for his PR.

 

[CascadeClone]

2nd point when you read about the value of the teams tv ratings a little closer, the data was taken from the 2018 and 2019 season, FOX and ESPN chose either OU or UT for 33 of the 38 games to be broadcast on the main network. Well games on the main network always out draw teams on the side networks, so you are really not comparing the same thing. Look at any week of games and the games on the major networks always outdraw the secondary games on BTN or ESPN's other channels. After looking at the numbers its not as bad as the numbers look, it would be interesting to see how the 5 games that did not include either UT or OU drew for ratings. Without those numbers we really cannot make a good comparison to the value of the other 8 schools.

it makes you wonder the level of impact of the team vs the timeslot/network. What I mean is, does Purdue vs NW on ESPN at 7pm draw better or worse than Bama vs LSU on the Ocho at 9pm? Would be a very interesting variance analysis, you'd need a lot of data but I am sure it could be done. Hell I could do it if I had the data, the free time, and the motivation.

A follow up would be how much does the ranking of the teams involved matter vs the name brand? ie does Texas A&M draw viewers because they are Texas A&M or because they are ranked 9th? Which of those things is a bigger factor?

If you find out that the timeslot or ranking is more important than the brand name, then suddenly you have a much different equation for the Purdues and Iowa States. The difference in value between the big names and the other guys is smaller. Yes it is less, but it might not be 80% less.

 

[Gunnerclone]

If they’re proud to hold a unique position of only P5 in Mountain and Pacific time zones, I could see them wanting to expand east to the central zone to say “… only P5 in 3 time zones.” Plus they almost went to 16 teams ten years ago. Why not now? They need to spice it up (easily worst P5) and the new commish can make a huge splash quickly. Good for his PR.

I personally would be ecstatic with going to the PAC-12 assuming KU and KSU go to and we are aligned with them divisionally. We could run an “Eastern” division in FB.

ISU
KU
KSU
CU
AZ
ASU (if they survive)
OkieSt
TTU

 

[Cloneon]

Nebraska is receiving a full share now for the past couple years. I don't believe Rutgers is as of yet, and Maryland won't for quite some time.......they received a ton of money up front to help offset a bunch of debt and their exit fees. They receive a smaller share until those monies are paid back.

I've seen quite a few stories from different sources that with their next TV contract, the B10 as it is currently is configured, is expecting to earn more than $70 million/year per school. So a new member added would need to bring in that much revenue to "break even" as the existing member are not going to want to dilute their revenue distribution for the sake of expanding.

That was the B12 position over the past 10 years. Which didn't work out too well.