Big10 - Pac12 - ACC Merger
- Thread starter Beach_Tornado
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Also, I think folks should start adopting the mindset that it could be 1 to 2 years (maybe even longer) before any announcement regarding the Remaining 8 is made.
This is kind of a big game of Chicken. ESPN/SEC/UT/OU are the ones who are going to end up in court if the Remaining 8 don't find well-paying homes. How much are they willing to give up to the Pac-12/Big Ten/ACC to add the R8 members in order to avoid that? The R8 can't bring a future loss lawsuit until they know for sure that they aren't going to get picked up by a power conference, and that won't be until the new media deals for the Pac-12 and Big Ten are negotiated. It's just hard for me to see any resolution in the near term.
I definitely see this. All work together to make the SEC wait out the Big12 contract. It also allows the BIG and PAC to give them time to figure out what they will do at the end of their contracts.
Once 6 teams have a home the conference is probably toast. That may limit this from being tied up too long past a year.
This is true - we don't know what's been discussed or what level of interest these conferences have in any of the Big 12 leftovers. The reason I keep talking about the PAC having interest in the likes of Okie St. and ISU is because value to a conference is as much about current financial health of the conference as it is the schools being considered.
Ignoring geography and looking at a simple TV viewership and fan interest (as a proxy for potential streaming value), ISU and Okie St. would have next to no value to the SEC, and little value to the Big 10. ISU and Okie St. would be in the 6-10 range in these metrics once this year shakes out. Would there be some interest potentially if Fox pushes the Big 10 to expand, the Big 10 is not successful in going after some bigger fish, and a couple of these Big 12 leftovers take a big reduction in media rights? Perhaps, but it would be quite a needle to thread, all to add a couple teams in that are roughly in that tier of teams that are nice to have - Iowa, Michigan State, Northwestern. These schools do bring value to the Big 10. But if they weren't already members I think there would be interest, but the Big 10 wouldn't be falling all over themselves to get these schools in.
On the other hand, Okie St. and ISU would be below USC and Oregon. Okie St., ISU and Washington would be that next tier in terms of TV viewers.
So I think there's value to the PAC. Part of that is the value of Okie St. and ISU being underrated, and part of that being the lower financial health and revenue of the PAC vs. the Big 10. I think something similar could be said with WVU and the ACC, but there situation is a little more complicated.
As Pollard stated, "this is going to take time, and we need patients", its as simple as that. If anyone thinks that something on expansion is going to happen quickly they are only fooling themselves. Until the Pac 12 and Big 10 redo their media contracts nothing is going to happen. Why would they expand now without know if it is worth them to do so, because it helps teams from the Big 12? Not going to happen that way.
The remaining 8 schools right now are fine, and will stay that way for at least 2 more seasons, and most likely four more. If OUT leave after the 2022/23 season then they will both have to buy out the media rights for the last 2 years at $75 million for each school. I really cannot see them leaving them, because ESPN does not control the rights until 2024, why help out the ratings for CBS? If they leave before the 2024 season, then they will have to pay only $75 million between the two schools.
ISU and OSU are too valuable not be picked up by another conference and maybe others but those two schools will be fine. WV and Baylor are the schools that could be on the outside looking in when this is all said and done.
In order to hold UT/OU to the GOR, the conference probably has to remain intact. However, I don't think the conference needs to remain intact to sue for future loss...the schools could sue separately or as a group.
Because these are acidemic institutions not semi pro sports franchises.
Right now the only narrative out there is the ones being pushed by media companies hyping their media inventory and could care less about the acidemic mission of these institutions.
These decisions will be made by university presidents.
The three conferences entering in to this alliance like to brag about they superior acidemics. 200+ million dollar athletic department budgets with the anything goes E$PN/$EC if you are not cheating you are not trying money grab model that treats their fans and alumni as nothing more than ATMs to be exploited to the max doesn't do much to promote their acidemic excellence and integrity.
They need to decide how college athletics will best enhance their academic mission.
Right you are JB. I would not put it past TT, Baylor, and possibly OSU to stab someone in the back to get a seat at the table. There are lawyers politics and the devil (ESPN) involved in this. Some of this will come down to contracts, but only some of it.
IMO, 'public' vs 'private' negotiations are miles apart and for obvious reasons.
Where is OSU and TT going to go? The SEC is full, so they are not going there, the Big 10 only takes AAU schools and neither are in that. So there only choice is to go to the Pac 12, and why would they make a deal for themselves when the Pac 12 is not going to only expand to 2 teams but 4 or 6.
The schools to worry about cutting a deal are WV, they want to be in the ACC so bad they can taste it, and if an offer comes they will jump and the ACC has their media rights locked up for a decade and a half, unlike the Big 10 and Pac 12, they are set with the media side of things.
TCU and Baylor are religious schools and in the past the Pac 12 has shied away from taking religious schools, now TCU is moving away from it, while Baylor is moving towards it. Baylor cannot jump because where are they going to go? Nowhere, and TCU has to hope that Pac 12 moves towards 6 schools and not just 4.
Couldn't part of the ACC/B1G/PAC scheduling discussions about thwarting the SEC mega-conference power moves also include discussions of how to deal with the leftover 8?
The best way to stick it to the SEC power grab is to make sure that OuT pay for their deceit and clandestine/illegal negotiations with the SEC by paying the leftovers the maximum to escape the Big XII. That COULD mean they've mutually agreed not to offer any leftovers anything until the OuT settlement is completed.
And possibly even give behind the scenes assurances to the angry 8 that they would be integrated, but to just be patient.
The best way to stick it to the SEC power grab is to make sure that OuT pay for their deceit and clandestine/illegal negotiations with the SEC by paying the leftovers the maximum to escape the Big XII. That COULD mean they've mutually agreed not to offer any leftovers anything until the OuT settlement is completed.
And possibly even give behind the scenes assurances to the angry 8 that they would be integrated, but to just be patient.
It's a chess game and everyone is in play. The smart move would be to 'anticipate' and 'have countermoves' to serve our best interests.
If this is all about MONEY & GREED....why would the Other 4 conferences include the big 12 in anything....Just go with a four way split instead of a five way split.
One thing which seems to always give me a bad vibe is how 'financially beholdened' we would be to the B1G if we were to be accepted there. Especially, if in the not too distant future it, too, were poached.
A Pac-16 with ISU, OSU, Tech, and one more (let’s say KU for hoops) with the four new schools taking heavily reduced payout shares for a decade probably makes the 12 existing schools more money in each of the short, medium, and long terms IMO - IF that addition doesn’t make USC mad and drives them to the Big Ten. That’s the piece we don’t know
The demise of the Big 12 doesn't mean that the other 8 teams don't find homes though. The B1G, PAC, and ACC are 100% putting a stake in the ground against the SEC. Nothing less nothing more. They aren't going to let the SEC rig the system so they can pull in 5 or 6 playoff spots every year.
This can't be overstated. Things are going to be quiet for a bit. basically the Big 12 needs OU and UT to agree to settle for a certain amount and then anything is on the table. Ideally this all plays out over the next few months and OU and UT move to the SEC next year.
Maryland owes the Big 10 $140 million that they borrowed to pay off their debts and their buyout to the ACC. They along with Rutgers do not get FULL payments until 2027. Nebraska got their first full share either last year or this year.
If ISU and KU would join the Big 10 I would guess the particle share price would go for the first 8 to 10 years of the deal.
At $60 million per school, which is the number everyone is talking about, that would mean ISU and KU would get a 50% share, or about the same amount of money we currently do now. Say 50% for the first 5 years, 75% for the next 3 to 5 years does not sound unreasonable to ask for.
For starters, the Pac 12 is stagnant money wise. With their current TV structure, they are falling way behind the other conferences. They can combat this by grabbing the central time zone and enhancing their conference TV network. There are huge growth opportunities for the Pac and they know it. There is no way the Pac and B1G are going to leave TV inventory on the table.
