Big10 - Pac12 - ACC Merger

[SEIOWA CLONE]

A Pac-16 with ISU, OSU, Tech, and one more (let’s say KU for hoops) with the four new schools taking heavily reduced payout shares for a decade probably makes the 12 existing schools more money in each of the short, medium, and long terms IMO - IF that addition doesn’t make USC mad and drives them to the Big Ten. That’s the piece we don’t know

The blue bloods of the Pac 12 either have to be all in on expansion, or they are planning on leaving anyway and therefore there will be no expansions. USC, Oregon, and Washington will not be able to sit on the fence, allow expansion to happen and then 5 years down the road jump to the Big 10. The GOR's they have to sign to get the agreement will stop it from occurring.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

For starters, the Pac 12 is stagnant money wise. With their current TV structure, they are falling way behind the other conferences. They can combat this by grabbing the central time zone and enhancing their conference TV network. There are huge growth opportunities for the Pac and they know it. There is no way the Pac and B1G are going to leave TV inventory on the table.

People here have said this over and over again - and it makes sense to me - but then there are writers like Dennis Dodd who included in a story that media contacts said no combination of Big 12 leftovers would add value to the Pac-12. There are also people who think like that too. The floor for ISU is not getting another P5 invite; there are scenarios where we stay put and have to invite some G5 schools and then see what happens with how seriously our league is treated nationally.

 

[drmwevr08]

As Pollard stated, "this is going to take time, and we need patients", its as simple as that. If anyone thinks that something on expansion is going to happen quickly they are only fooling themselves. Until the Pac 12 and Big 10 redo their media contracts nothing is going to happen. Why would they expand now without know if it is worth them to do so, because it helps teams from the Big 12? Not going to happen that way.

The remaining 8 schools right now are fine, and will stay that way for at least 2 more seasons, and most likely four more. If OUT leave after the 2022/23 season then they will both have to buy out the media rights for the last 2 years at $75 million for each school. I really cannot see them leaving them, because ESPN does not control the rights until 2024, why help out the ratings for CBS? If they leave before the 2024 season, then they will have to pay only $75 million between the two schools.

ISU and OSU are too valuable not be picked up by another conference and maybe others but those two schools will be fine. WV and Baylor are the schools that could be on the outside looking in when this is all said and done.

WV worse off than KSt?

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

This can't be overstated. Things are going to be quiet for a bit. basically the Big 12 needs OU and UT to agree to settle for a certain amount and then anything is on the table. Ideally this all plays out over the next few months and OU and UT move to the SEC next year.

For that to occur the buyout would be over $100 million per school, and by the language of the contract they are required to stay 18 months from the time they give notice to the league to leave. So the league could therefore charge them in more than their share of the TV rights that they would be paying for leaving, if they are breaking the contract.

The two schools will be here for at least 2 more years, and I would bet 3. The last year is shaky, because by then ESPN will have the SEC contract and will want to be able to televise those games.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

For that to occur the buyout would be over $100 million per school, and by the language of the contract they are required to stay 18 months from the time they give notice to the league to leave. So the league could therefore charge them in more than their share of the TV rights that they would be paying for leaving, if they are breaking the contract.

The two schools will be here for at least 2 more years, and I would bet 3. The last year is shaky, because by then ESPN will have the SEC contract and will want to be able to televise those games.

Contracts are made to be broken. OU and UT can write the check and trust me, none of the 8 schools want this to drag out.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

People here have said this over and over again - and it makes sense to me - but then there are writers like Dennis Dodd who included in a story that media contacts said no combination of Big 12 leftovers would add value to the Pac-12. There are also people who think like that too. The floor for ISU is not getting another P5 invite; there are scenarios where we stay put and have to invite some G5 schools and then see what happens with how seriously our league is treated nationally.

Those guys are still living in a cable subscription world. You start talking about conference network subscriptions etc. there is certainly value in several of the remaining 8. The PAC needs all the help they can get to bolster their conference positioning in order to grab additional playoff spots because that's where the big money will be made. The Pac can't afford to be a one big league moving forward.

 

[JM4CY]

WV worse off than KSt?

They both are kind of screwed but in somewhat different ways.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

WV worse off than KSt?

I tend to think so, they are in the smallest state population wise in the conference and the furthest to the East. The only conference will to take them would be the ACC, and if they thought they were such a great find, they would not have been passed over twice before when the ACC expanded. They are also at the bottom of the conference grade wise in ranking on academics.

KSU or KU depends what the Big 10 is going to do, if the Big 10 takes KU and ISU, then that opens up a spot for KSU to the Pac 12. KSU has good numbers TV and attendence wise, and would bring in the state of Kansas into the footprint, IF KU goes to a different conference. They also have good but not great academic scores but they are not an AAU school while KU is.

What happens to KSU will be totally determined by where KU ends up, the Pac 12 could take KU, KSU, ISU, OSU, TT and TCU and be done.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Contracts are made to be broken. OU and UT can write the check and trust me, none of the 8 schools want this to drag out.

The other 8 school have no choice in the matter, whether OUT are in the league or not, they do not have anywhere else to go for the next 2 to 3 years at least. Why should they bend over for UT and OU and let them leave. Throw in the fact that OU is already in the red over a billion dollars and a major buyout by the school could be a problem .

One would think after the last go round, the conference was smart enough to write up the new bylaws that would be very difficult to impossible to break, remember if they leave the conference owns their TV rights until 2025, so go ahead and leave, and you cannot be on TV.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

The other 8 school have no choice in the matter, whether OUT are in the league or not, they do not have anywhere else to go for the next 2 to 3 years at least. Why should they bend over for UT and OU and let them leave. Throw in the fact that OU is already in the red over a billion dollars and a major buyout by the school could be a problem .

One would think after the last go round, the conference was smart enough to write up the new bylaws that would be very difficult to impossible to break, remember if they leave the conference owns their TV rights until 2025, so go ahead and leave, and you cannot be on TV.

Do you honestly think that the Big 12 and the remaining 8 are just sitting on their hands waiting? Everyone is positioning themselves and if the opportunity is there they will be willing to walk away from the cash grab. None of these schools can afford for this to drag out because the ramifications will be really big.

 

[CascadeClone]

The other 8 school have no choice in the matter, whether OUT are in the league or not, they do not have anywhere else to go for the next 2 to 3 years at least. Why should they bend over for UT and OU and let them leave. Throw in the fact that OU is already in the red over a billion dollars and a major buyout by the school could be a problem .

One would think after the last go round, the conference was smart enough to write up the new bylaws that would be very difficult to impossible to break, remember if they leave the conference owns their TV rights until 2025, so go ahead and leave, and you cannot be on TV.

Yes the Irate8 will stay there for a year or 3 beyond this season, agree. But OuT will be gone, and all that will be left are alimony checks. The contract language "forcing" teams to stay is really about strengthening position for better settlement terms and making the decision to leave harder in the first place. Hopefully this is stronger than ESPN's gamble that they could torpedo the league and avoid all that.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Do you honestly think that the Big 12 and the remaining 8 are just sitting on their hands waiting? Everyone is positioning themselves and if the opportunity is there they will be willing to walk away from the cash grab. None of these schools can afford for this to drag out because the ramifications will be really big.

No, I think they all are talking to the Big 10, ACC and the Pac 12, just because they are not doing it in public does not mean that they are sitting on their hands doing nothing. I would suspect that the Big 10 and Pac 12 have told all the schools, we want to wait until our contracts are redone, and then we will move forward or not on expansion.

The remaining big 12 schools really have no choice in the matter, if they had been solidly turned down by the other two leagues its still in their best interest to get the OUT issue behind them, and then expand, but only after they know exactly when OU and UT are leaving the conference and how much money they will be paying to do so.

No I do not believe that OU and UT be here for the all four years of the contract, my guess is 2 is guaranteed and 2023/24 is probable, they will leave after that season.

 

[Gonzo]

Do you honestly think that the Big 12 and the remaining 8 are just sitting on their hands waiting? Everyone is positioning themselves and if the opportunity is there they will be willing to walk away from the cash grab. None of these schools can afford for this to drag out because the ramifications will be really big.

That's going to be tough though. If the Big 12 is going to hold OuT's feet to the flame for getting in bed with another conference in violation of conference bylaws, and apply gob$$$ of penalties to them in the process, how can ISU et al do the same thing? I can't see the Big 12 being ok with that and not holding them to the same standards.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

That's going to be tough though. If the Big 12 is going to hold OuT's feet to the flame for getting in bed with another conference in violation of conference bylaws, and apply gob$$$ of penalties to them in the process, how can ISU et al do the same thing? I can't see the Big 12 being ok with that and not holding them to the same standards.

Oh I agree, I'm just saying that for the health of all of the programs they won't hold OU and UT hostage because the programs are going to suffer.

 

[Clonehomer]

Do you honestly think that the Big 12 and the remaining 8 are just sitting on their hands waiting? Everyone is positioning themselves and if the opportunity is there they will be willing to walk away from the cash grab. None of these schools can afford for this to drag out because the ramifications will be really big.

I'm sure they're positioning themselves, but at this point it's all discussions about what'll happen in 2025. To have a conversation around a date before that is opening yourself up to the same issues that OuT are going to have. The 8 need to stay in tact until the end of the TV contract, whether that's 2025 or a date sooner when OuT decide to try to leave.

 

[Cyclonepride]

That's going to be tough though. If the Big 12 is going to hold OuT's feet to the flame for getting in bed with another conference in violation of conference bylaws, and apply gob$$$ of penalties to them in the process, how can ISU et al do the same thing? I can't see the Big 12 being ok with that and not holding them to the same standards.

That's why they appear to be working together as a conference. Find the best landing spots for all (or almost all), and then vote to dissolve (or merge) the league.

 

[Klubber]

It’s important to note that right now those conferences would not publicly say they’re interested in any of the schools due to everything that’s going on with ESPN and the SEC.

Exactly. And if they did, then it could be argued that they're doing the same thing as ESPN/SEC in weakening the conference for financial gain. Not to mention, isn't in the best Interest of this conference alliance to make sure that the OU, Texas, ESPN, SEC conglomerate pay as much as possible in damages over this? If they raid the Big XII or even talk about doing so, the case against all of them is weakened considerably. And obviously if the conference folds they're all off the hook as well.

The whole thing about there being "no interest" in the Big XII schools and it not being included in this current alliance is being completely misrepresented by writers who want to blame all of this on the Big XII, and/or are shills for ESPN/SEC.

 

[scyclonekid]

Contracts are made to be broken. OU and UT can write the check and trust me, none of the 8 schools want this to drag out.

It can’t drag out due to recruiting

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

It can’t drag out due to recruiting

Again, what choice do we have in the matter? Yes, it might hurt recruiting in the short run, most likely will, but if we get into a more stable conference with more money we are better off in the long run. Many want to take the short term not the long term view of this.
Short term, rebuild the conference by adding AAC teams, long term allow the other conferences to get their media deals worked out, stick it to OUT and then see if expansion to those conferences are a possibility. If not, then reform the conference.

 

[Gonzo]

That's why they appear to be working together as a conference. Find the best landing spots for all (or almost all), and then vote to dissolve (or merge) the league.

So the Big 12 is voluntarily going to fold?