Big 12 Expansion (new thread)

Win5002

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@FriendlySpartan

What do you think about going all in on raiding the ACC? Clemson, GT, FSU, UNC, Duke, UVa, and any other you need to pull that off? Otherwise known as Delaney's wet dream.

Assuming as you say, USC to SEC is no threat.

This ends the SEC hegemony. Sacrifice the ACC to balance things out, but with Maryland also preserving a lot of the ACC. Add PSU and it is what the ACC should have been.

Also gets the BIG a ton of markets for their linear model, streaming and basketball tournament inventory for the future, and into the south population/recruiting area the BIG so desperately needs.

Also, maintains the pipe dream of ND to the BIG.
The B1G may get NC, Va., Duke(to try and sway NC to B1G because SEC probably wont). The SEC will take Clemson and FSU to block the B1G from deep south recruiting. Not sure about GA. Tech, they are so out numbered by UGA fans the SEC may not offer Ga Tech and let them go to the B1G but I don't know even if the B1G brand can help Ga. Tech get a bigger share of Georgia fans. Miami may be available for the B1G not sure SEC will care about them since they are 3rd best brand in the state and don't move the needle much in the rest of Florida. Those adds and the right 4 or 5 PAC schools might get ND. ND doesn't have much in common with the SEC.
 
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WhoISthis

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ESPN just can't afford to do that. Every indication is they are trying to consolidate as much of the brands they want under their umbrella and spinning off or low balling the brands that they don't. They've cut hundreds of jobs in on air talent. Disney wants the whole thing sold off. They've got the ACC for cheap for a good while and will need to keep it that way, just to make the other stuff work. And the best part for ESPN is, if the Clemsons and FSUs balk at the money they're getting now, ESPN-OU-UT has already shown them the way they can get more.
Do Clemson and Co make it to 2025 in the ACC? If they tail off any, locking in that SEC brand and money is huge safety net. South Carolina, Tenn, and UGa will start making $40 million/year more than Clemson then

I kind of hope they go BIG, complete Armageddon
 

t-noah

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I could be completely off base here, but I think the PAC 12 screwed themselves when they passed on expansion.

If THEY had taken UCin, UCF, UMem & UH we would be in trouble. (with only 8 teams and 1 good prospect)
If they had taken TT, OSU, KSU, TCU we would be dead.

Now the PAC is under the gun and if they lose CU or USC/OU to the B1G they don't have any quality teams to fill the gaps. We took most of the good & marginal teams.
I was thinking the same thing. For now I think the PAC has lost their best chance to expand into the Midwest. They didn't want to. Now that they've made their bed they must sleep in it. Around them other conferences are expanding or have strong possibilities to expand. The PAC is looking weaker and weaker.

Some of the teams in the PAC didn't want to join the BIG maybe, if given the chance, now they may have to re-think that. There are still so many unknowns.

The Big 12 has made a very strong and smart move by adding the four new teams. Hopefully it will turn out well for us and our members! Realignment isn't over yet I'm afraid. Thankfully we have positioned ourselves well for the next steps. I hope.
 
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WhoISthis

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The B1G may get NC, Va., Duke(to try and sway NC to B1G because SEC probably wont). The SEC will take Clemson and FSU to block the B1G from deep south recruiting. Not sure about GA. Tech, they are so out numbered by UGA fans the SEC may not offer Ga Tech and let them go to the B1G but I don't know even if the B1G brand can help Ga. Tech get a bigger share of Georgia fans. Miami may be available for the B1G not sure SEC will care about them since they are 3rd best brand in the state and don't move the needle much in the rest of Florida. Those adds and the right 4 or 5 PAC schools might get ND. ND doesn't have much in common with the SEC.
Why does GT need to get bigger share than UGa to be worth the add? ATL is a huge college football market. GT would get the BIG inmarket carriage fees imo.
FSU and Miami are dying brands in FL. No one brags about going to FSU. They still have the older gen Of alumni, but they are quickly losing ground. USF is becoming an equitable option when not getting into UF
 

Win5002

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Do Clemson and Co make it to 2025 in the ACC? If they tail off any, locking in that SEC brand and money is huge safety net. South Carolina, Tenn, and UGa will start making $40 million/year more than Clemson then

I kind of hope they go BIG, complete Armageddon
I don't think 6-8 brands in the ACC stay in the ACC if they don't make significant gains. 40M a year deficit compared to the SEC/B1G, add that up over 10-15 yrs.
If OU and UT can negotiate out of the GORs the ACC schools will also even though its a longer term.
 
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Win5002

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Why does GT need to get bigger share than UGa to be worth the add? ATL is a huge college football market. GT would get the BIG inmarket carriage fees imo.
FSU and Miami are dying brands in FL. No one brags about going to FSU. They still have the older gen Of alumni, but they are quickly losing ground. USF is becoming an equitable option when not getting into UF
I'm not saying Ga. Tech needs to get a bigger share than UGA because that will NEVER happen they just need a bigger share of the state than they have. The state is probably 80-85% UGA fans.
.That's heart of SEC country and if you can't grow grow the Ga. Tech brand the recruiting benefit is severely limited. IMO, if the SEC is worried they bring Ga. Tech in and if they don't offer they are not concerned.
 

BoomerClone

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North Carolina
Full disclosure, I haven’t read this whole thread or the other 99 threads on the same topic. That being said, the only thing that matters is that ISU is in a league that is considered a “power” league with a automatic qualifier in the new expanded playoff (whenever that inevitably happens) If that is the case ISU is fine. I wanted the invite to the B1G when this all went down. That didn’t and won’t happen. This new Big 12 may actually be a saving grace for ISU athletics. I think it keeps them relevant in football and elevates basketball.
 

jctisu

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Similar starting point, different conclusion. The SEC and ESPN have already figured out it is regional/not national- so why pay for a national map with redundancy? Most of those excluded by nature don't have many fans that add TV revenue to the current average of the P48, if they did, they'd be invited.

Will it go down? Yes, but not as much as what they just avoided paying for. That is the key. That is inherent to the exclusion. The elasticity will only improve after slowly suffocating the fans over 10-15 years.

Think of it this way. If the SEC makes a network enough to justify on average paying a team $80 million, why pay Big 12 teams $30 million to get a fraction of them to watch the SEC? Make the Big 12 fans not care at all, thereby paying them nothing. Maybe that means you only get $75 million worth of viewership revenue per SEC team, but you just saved $30 million by no longer needing to pay the Big 12 schools.

I assure you the networks have done that math. They've studied the elasticity of exclusion, and they'll make more.

I also think you're overestimating losing the non P48 schools in terms of losing the ability to be more national and less regional. Adding the North-South polarization makes people pick sides. It will be bigger than now, but with less teams.


NLI is a bigger threat to their product imo. Losing Big 12 fans that don't watch at the level of the P48 is good math, although cold hearted. Losing the BIG and SEC fans of the P32-P48 because they don't want to watch kids making millions of NLI may be a bigger deal
You do realize these networks need inventory right? If there are only two conferences ESPN is not going to be able to have the rights to both of them because Fox will make sure to outbid for one of them. And then they run the risk of other networks or entities jumping into the game to get some of this now “really valuable” super league. It’s a very risky move that could pay off but ESPN could really hurt themselves here.

In the end they need content. And if they have to get that content from the lower divisions (all teams not in the BIG/SEC) they aren’t going to see any return because none of those teams matter in the national picture anymore. ESPN has plenty of FCS rights but it’s because they are cheap and content to have but they don’t make anything off of the FCS. They have plenty of P5 content to make the money and parse out among other networks. So unless ESPN is going to switch and start bidding big on getting more NFL rights they need college football. They lose that content they are in trouble.
 

BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
You do realize these networks need inventory right? If there are only two conferences ESPN is not going to be able to have the rights to both of them because Fox will make sure to outbid for one of them. And then they run the risk of other networks or entities jumping into the game to get some of this now “really valuable” super league. It’s a very risky move that could pay off but ESPN could really hurt themselves here.

In the end they need content. And if they have to get that content from the lower divisions (all teams not in the BIG/SEC) they aren’t going to see any return because none of those teams matter in the national picture anymore. ESPN has plenty of FCS rights but it’s because they are cheap and content to have but they don’t make anything off of the FCS. They have plenty of P5 content to make the money and parse out among other networks. So unless ESPN is going to switch and start bidding big on getting more NFL rights they need college football. They lose that content they are in trouble.
Several SEC schools and big ten schools should be a little careful. If these leagues go to 20/24 teams, I could see them splitting the divisions revenue. The big ten east is worth way more than the west. If they add the NC schools and VA and get the 6 best ACC. That would push the Indiana schools, probably Mich state and maybe leap frog Rutgers to that group and have the varsity and JV levels. Varsity would pull the bigger money and JV less since the only time they would play each other is the championship game.
 

Cyclones1969

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Then don’t use strawmans.

Boise started off as a community college not that long ago, so I’d say getting vetted as a possible invite to a conference on par with the ACC and Pac12 means winning has translated to a LOT.

The BIG West is basically the MAC, but ignoring that, it would benefit those programs to have more seasons like UCF. In the past without playoffs and auto bids, there was merit in staying for perception.

Boise was a then 1AA power for a lot of years. Kurt Warner played his final college game in Boise in 96.

It’s amazing for how as desirable as they are, the only time they’ve been vetted was by a desperate conference who lost their 2 flagship programs, and were still not accepted for Houston

how does that happen to a National brand like Boise State?
 

BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
Boise was a then 1AA power for a lot of years. Kurt Warner played his final college game in Boise in 96.

It’s amazing for how as desirable as they are, the only time they’ve been vetted was by a desperate conference who lost their 2 flagship programs, and were still not accepted for Houston

how does that happen to a National brand like Boise State?
Boise built itself like Nebraska, by using partial qualifiers, basically students who could not get in elsewhere and didn’t want to JUCO. Not sure if they still do. Their academic image is still that of a community college so presidents aren’t keen on them.
 
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Rural

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Boise was a then 1AA power for a lot of years. Kurt Warner played his final college game in Boise in 96.

It’s amazing for how as desirable as they are, the only time they’ve been vetted was by a desperate conference who lost their 2 flagship programs, and were still not accepted for Houston

how does that happen to a National brand like Boise State?



The former junior college?
 
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Cyclones1969

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Boise built itself like Nebraska, by using partial qualifiers, basically students who could not get in elsewhere and didn’t want to JUCO. Not sure if they still do. Their academic image is still that of a community college so presidents aren’t keen on them.

No one, outside of Boise, cares about Boise State
 

WhoISthis

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I'm not saying Ga. Tech needs to get a bigger share than UGA because that will NEVER happen they just need a bigger share of the state than they have. The state is probably 80-85% UGA fans.
.That's heart of SEC country and if you can't grow grow the Ga. Tech brand the recruiting benefit is severely limited. IMO, if the SEC is worried they bring Ga. Tech in and if they don't offer they are not concerned.
So you're against the Houston add?
There are a lot of transplants now in ATL. A good size population of ACC fans. GT as part of Clemson, FSU, UNC, Duke, UVA going to the BIG gets the BIG into Georgia And with linear revenue still a thing for at least 10 years, pays better than the next 6th option.

I could not disagree more on the SEC comment. What works for one conference means little to the another. SEC already has a presence in Georgia. The incremental gains for the two conferences from GT are FAR different. The SEC already may not have interest in another FL school, that does not mean those FL schools are not valuable to the BIG.

Many feel GT has enough value to the BIG, both on its own and in getting other ACC schools, that the SEC will burn a spot on them just to limit the BIG's gains
 

WhoISthis

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Boise was a then 1AA power for a lot of years. Kurt Warner played his final college game in Boise in 96.

It’s amazing for how as desirable as they are, the only time they’ve been vetted was by a desperate conference who lost their 2 flagship programs, and were still not accepted for Houston

how does that happen to a National brand like Boise State?
LMAO.

1996 is not long ago in terms of building a P5 institution. The fact they were FCS in 1996 and now being vetted as a P5 member tells you how wrong you are. Winning > money in regards to growing a brand, particularly when winning with access to the playoffs.

Hint, BSU is getting vetted to get promoted to Iowa St's level after being a juco not long ago, and in FCS as recently as 1996. Iowa St in major college football is on the verge of going down from a top-3 conference to a top-5. What do you think has driven that difference? Iowa St's superior budget over Boise? Bigger institution over Boise? Location?

Or, do you think winning is the main reason?

You are always good for a laugh, I'll give you that. What strawmans will you use this time?
 

WhoISthis

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Boise built itself like Nebraska, by using partial qualifiers, basically students who could not get in elsewhere and didn’t want to JUCO. Not sure if they still do. Their academic image is still that of a community college so presidents aren’t keen on them.
Horrible school, unsustainable model, should not be added.

The fact they're even getting looked at shows you the power of winning while being a big fish in a little pond.
If ISU were to have that situation, with all its other positive attributes, it would find its way to a bigger pond.
 

Cyclones1969

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LMAO.

1996 is not long ago in terms of building a P5 institution. The fact they were FCS in 1996 and now being vetted as a P5 member tells you how wrong you are. Winning > money in regards to growing a brand, particularly when winning with access to the playoffs.

Hint, BSU is getting vetted to get promoted to Iowa St's level after being a juco not long ago, and in FCS as recently as 1996. Iowa St in major college football is on the verge of going down from a top-3 conference to a top-5. What do you think has driven that difference? Iowa St's superior budget over Boise? Bigger institution over Boise? Location?

Or, do you think winning is the main reason?

You are always good for a laugh, I'll give you that. What strawmans will you use this time?

The fact that you think Boise is being vetted on merit, rather than desperation, is the point

There aren’t any good adds to the new big aac after BYU, and maybe Cincinnati, and they still weren’t a choice.
 
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t-noah

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Totally missed that in real time on Friday night. This is David Boren level of arrogance and stupidity. And to say that on the day of the announcement. And now the Kansas State AD is firing back. Endless drama.

The new KU AD is not making very many friends in the Big 12. It may eventually work out in KU's favor but in the meantime I would be very afraid if I was a KU fan. Afraid that they won't make a favorable jump to another conference, let alone improve their standing in the new Big 12.

KU's athletic hires of late have been abysmal.
 

AuH2O

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I likely was, my apologies, but I don't think it changes anything.

Say the new SEC valuation is an average TV revenue of $80 million/team. How much of that is a result of there still being college football fans from the Big 12 3.0 schools? Maybe $5 million? Certainly less than whatever the networks have to pay the Big 12 schools. Inherently it can't be much given even watching their own school/conference is likely $25 million valuation. Say the Big 12 valuation is $25 million/team, some of which is from the uber CFB passionate SEC and BIG fans, but lets ignore that portion.

Removing the Big 12 college football fans from being college football fans costs 16*5 in this example, but saves $25x12. That covers a lot of $7/month loss from cord cutters in middle of Kansas. That is if all the fans lost don't convert, or at least still watch big matchups. Which we know is false.

Unfortunately perception is powerful. Once it is viewed a P2 world, even the also-rans in the P2 will see a perception and valuation boost. What used to not be worth watching unless a fan of those teams, is now a top-tier matchup.

Imo, the key is for the leftovers to have success in the transition. If low-budget, low-recruiting anomalies like Iowa St, Cincy, and UCF for example, can win in the playoffs or win big non-conference matchups, it limits the ability for the networks to execute the plan. The Big 12, with the exciting style of play and proven success, added large metros, would see improved ratings. Add ACC and Pac12 leftovers but well-know brands in large cities like Phoenix, Pittsburg, Louisville etc and in the transition period the 3rd P3 can close the gap.

Sorry, but you're missing the revenue that ISU generates from the actual inventory itself. You are treating ISU's TV value to ESPN as being 1.carriage fees for subscriptions and 2. the eyeballs they bring to other conferences in your math.

People can't on one hand say the ISU and OSUs of the world are worth far less than $25 M per year on their own to ESPN, and were only getting paid so ESPN could access OU and Texas while simultaneously saying ESPN would consider Notre Dame, USC or Oregon to be worth $60-80 M per year.

You simply can't say ISU and OSU are worthless when the great white whale that is Notre Dame is uber valuable: Notre Dame-Pitt on ABC (2.4 M) vs. Iowa State-Okie State on Fox (2.8 M) when aired head-to-head. Network reg. season games by ISU last year even omitting OU and UT games drew 85 and 89% of viewership that USC and Oregon's reg. season network games drew.

When you are talking about value to ESPN, they already have all those markets (CA, OR, IN/IL) regardless of what conference they are in. So it simply comes down to viewers for ad revenue and making sure they don't lose subscribers. No one is saying that ISU or Okie State are worth as much as Oregon or USC. But you can't proclaim relative values of these teams to ESPN that are completely detached from viewership.
 
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