Realignment, Alliance, and the Future of College Athletics

[WhoISthis]

Yeah, and there's absolutely no market for those schools in unaffiliated states.

The reason people in Iowa watch SEC games is because they're part of the same level of football that our schools are. If that changes, no one will give a ****.

Now take "Iowa" and insert any other state outside the SEC footprint.

You think the top level isn’t going to include a program that carries any current market in which college athletics are popular?

A top-40 is a big enough tent. I think it’ll be top-48 though.

Imo a top 48 P2 split on north-south cultural fault lines, feeding into the CFP, increases national relevance of out of area games.

 

[cyfanatic]

The biggest reason a lot of these sports programs became massively popular were ties to universities and alumni bases. An Iowa Hawkeye minor league football club that had no connection to the university brand is called the Iowa Barnstormers (do they even exist anymore?).

THIS! Spot on! If these players were part of a "minor" league for the NFL without wearing the school's name on the uniform...they would be as popular as the Cedar Rapids Kernels or the Iowa Cubs!

 

[Mr Janny]

Am I the only person in this thread who will admit that if the top schools split off and form their own division, I'll care a whole lot less about the whole thing? Admittedly I'm already pretty bummed about OU and UT leaving, at least from a football perspective.

That's definitely a risk they would be taking. But they'd be betting on better matchups making up for it. You're going to get more eyeballs on a non conference game between an SEC and BIG 10 team than you would if they were playing a MAC or FCS school.

Not to mention, with a smaller league, there would be other attempts to draw viewers. Fantasy/Daily Fantasy is not huge with college football now, but has the opportunity to grow significantly as star players might become easier to identify/follow in a smaller league.

 

[Mr Janny]

THIS! Spot on! If these players were part of a "minor" league for the NFL without wearing the school's name on the uniform...they would be as popular as the Cedar Rapids Kernels or the Iowa Cubs!

Truth. And that's why there's no reason to think these teams will separate from the university system. Even if the top teams leave to form their own league, it will still be in the College Sports capacity

 

[cyfanatic]

You think the top level isn’t going to include a program that carries any current market in which college athletics are popular?

A top-40 is a big enough tent. I think it’ll be top-48 though.

Imo a top 48 P2 split on north-south cultural fault lines, feeding into the CFP, increases national relevance of out of area games.

They would have to put together that 48 very carefully if they are trying to cover all the possible markets...and pick the correct teams. How many Florida/Texas/California teams? Would a state like Arizona warrant 2 teams? I would assume the SEC teams would all be in but then why would Mississippi be deserving of 2 teams? It would be kind of fun to put together the 48 schools...but it wouldn't please everyone for sure!

 

[isucy86]

I don't think it is as easy as saying the Big10 or SEC will split off and create their own Super League. Or even Gene Smith's suggestion that the P5 & G5 take over CFB management & Compliance from the NCAA.

Recent court rulings, near-term court cases and Justice Kavanaugh's statements from last summer will drive what the future of college athletics looks like. College Presidents need to develop a collegiate sport development model that will stand the test of legal challenges.

I don't know if that means athletes are employees, athletes unionize and collectively bargain with the NCAA (or the applicable sport governance body) or providing a scholarship & allowing NIL will suffice.

IMO if #3 happens, then college sport won't change drastically. We could see realignment within the Pac12 & Big12 conferences. Especially if Pac12 programs like USC are interested in breaking away from the Pac12 and going independent or joining another conference. If USC pulls out of the Pac12, a school like Oregon can't be far behind. Then we would see further consolidation when ACC teams become available when their GOR ends.

But if legal rulings dictate student-athletes become employees or NIL creates a greater divide between the haves/have nots- then I think the days of Conferences could be over. As Gene Smith mentioned, when he floated the idea of the P5 & G5 breaking away from the NCAA, there wasn't consensus agreement from other Big10 AD's. Some college Presidents won't want any part having student-athletes as employees or athletes not being students.

 

[jdoggivjc]

My take is if it's 56-72 teams at the top tier, we'll be fine. If it's 30ish teams, we'll be fine as well - just not part of that new group. In fact, I wouldn't want to be part of a 30ish team group like that because I just don't see how how a regional sport like college athletics remains viable. Nobody north of the Ohio River cares about the SEC; nobody south of the Ohio cares about the Big 10; (almost) nobody west of the Missouri River cares about either, and (almost) nobody cares about the Pac 12, no matter how much ESPN wants to shove down my throat that I or people like me do care about it.

 

[awd4cy]

I honestly don't care what Cowherd has to say, but I have to admit that I do watch his show just to see Joy Taylor. God, what a woman. View attachment 98535

I’ve seen her run Colin’s show when he’s gone. Shes terrible. Honestly seems like her opinions are Colin’s and she doesn’t think for herself.

 

[cyfan92]

ISU sports fan just want to be competitive. We have decades of loosing to prove that. We'll be fine as fans.

Who is and should be worried is the athletic department. They need to be in the cool kids club to maintain debt payments on facilities and pay for coaches salaries.

Fans don't truly care about that as long as we put a good product on the field that can win.

 

[awd4cy]

That's definitely a risk they would be taking. But they'd be betting on better matchups making up for it. You're going to get more eyeballs on a non conference game between an SEC and BIG 10 team than you would if they were playing a MAC or FCS school.

Not to mention, with a smaller league, there would be other attempts to draw viewers. Fantasy/Daily Fantasy is not huge with college football now, but has the opportunity to grow significantly as star players might become easier to identify/follow in a smaller league.

There is always bottom level matchups in every league. I understand your point, but there will develop new perennial bottom feeders.

 

[WhoISthis]

So if we estimate that 20% (pulling # out of my ***, it could be any number) of Iowa's population is Hawkeye and Cyclone fans watching most FB games...the super league is going to result in MORE than 20% of Iowans being just Iowa fans? That's with Iowa going from being 20th out of 140 in FBS and 5th out of 14 in Big Ten to being 20th best in the new 30 team superleague?

Why will it be more popular suddenly? It will still have worse players than the NFL. An extra 8k Iowans a year will graduate from college with no ties to a major conference team (their alumni affiliation also affects friends/family who didn't go to college so the number is much greater than annual grads). That's the # I see growing. Annual alums with no ties to a major college football and who will not be football fans or be NFL fans. The # I see shrinking is graduating alumni from major football schools.

How will it work in Nebraska? What Nebraskans were just waiting through the 90s and 00s for a reason to become Nebraska fans for the first time? What individual in the country was waiting to be an Alabama fan and just didn't have a reason because they didn't win enough or weren't on TV enough or didn't get enough ESPN coverage or didn't have a cool enough stadium?

The biggest reason a lot of these sports programs became massively popular were ties to universities and alumni bases. An Iowa Hawkeye minor league football club that had no connection to the university brand is called the Iowa Barnstormers (do they even exist anymore?).

A top-48 has the most popular brands. It covers a vast majority of who watches college football. The competitive balance and product identification will be better than now, which leads to growth.

Iowa St is unique in the sense it’s a large state school popular locally, but poor and nationally and would not be included. Protest canceling won’t be substantial nationally.

And maybe not locally. Over a generation of slowly suffocating out Iowa State, hate becomes the reason to watch CFB. Many normal Iowa State people (people not debating this on a message board) will tune in to the big Iowa games to root for their opponent. Or just eventually become Iowa fans because we no longer really compete- similar to UNI. New students and alumni won’t care about the fact ISU used to be on Iowa’s level and rival.

Would college football be more popular in Iowa if UNI were in the Big 12? I don’t think materially. Certainly Iowa State is a bigger university, but the dynamic is similar. The sport is popular regardless of affiliation. It’s been said college football is our NFL. Long term, that’s not decreasing as long as Iowa has a team, although a few current ISU fans may decide to free up their Saturdays completely.

 

[isucy86]

Truth. And that's why there's no reason to think these teams will separate from the university system. Even if the top teams leave to form their own league, it will still be in the College Sports capacity

The question is, can this league of top teams coexist with Title IX legislation if it exists under the College's umbrella?

Do these top teams make the players employees? If so, what is pay structure? Do the players unionize and collectively bargain for a share of revenue? What is the appetite of University Presidents to pay CTE and Medical liability costs for former employees?

If athletes get paid, how does this impact other student worker's pay? Will a bright mind in seed genetics demand higher pay because they are a critical part of a $50M research project?

Most Presidents are OK with the current student-athlete model and allowing athletes earn NIL dollars. But once things diverge from there, we will also see Presidents diverge on what role they want college-sport to play on their campuses.

 

[Jkclone15]

A top-48 has the most popular brands. It covers a vast majority of who watches college football. The competitive balance and product identification will be better than now, which leads to growth.

Iowa St is unique in the sense it’s a large state school popular locally, but poor and nationally and would not be included. Protest canceling won’t be substantial nationally.

And maybe not locally. Over a generation of slowly suffocating out Iowa State, hate becomes the reason to watch CFB. Many normal Iowa State people (people not debating this on a message board) will tune in to the big Iowa games to root for their opponent. Or just eventually become Iowa fans because we no longer really compete- similar to UNI. New students and alumni won’t care about the fact ISU used to be on Iowa’s level and rival.

Would college football be more popular in Iowa if UNI were in the Big 12? I don’t think materially. Certainly Iowa State is a bigger university, but the dynamic is similar. The sport is popular regardless of affiliation. It’s been said college football is our NFL. Long term, that’s not decreasing as long as Iowa has a team, although a few current ISU fans may decide to free up their Saturdays completely.

I agree with much of your post, but one distinction I will make is that many UNI fans root for Iowa because most of their student body is comprised of Iowans. In 2021, only 56.1% of ISU students were Iowans. Out-of-state grads like myself would most likely not.

 

[isucy86]

My take is if it's 56-72 teams at the top tier, we'll be fine. If it's 30ish teams, we'll be fine as well - just not part of that new group. In fact, I wouldn't want to be part of a 30ish team group like that because I just don't see how how a regional sport like college athletics remains viable. Nobody north of the Ohio River cares about the SEC; nobody south of the Ohio cares about the Big 10; (almost) nobody west of the Missouri River cares about either, and (almost) nobody cares about the Pac 12, no matter how much ESPN wants to shove down my throat that I or people like me do care about it.

I agree if there is a 30 team Super League, I don't think Iowa State (or any school) can be successful because we produce so few D1 football or basketball players. I would rather have the chance to be successful in a 2nd tier league, than 2-10 in the top league.

As you mention, college sport is a regional sport. Fans love playing their regional rivals. We might actually be better off if our schedule included mainly regional rivals that have also been relegated to Tier 2. Also, the 2nd tier, the sport development model would closer mirror the current student-athlete model plus appropriate NIL payments. The current NIL payments are not NIL but reflect athlete acquisition payments (uncontrolled free agency).

 

[cytor]

I'm not going to be interested in seeing the big 12 becoming another Mountain West, while other schools like Vandy, Illinois, Rutgers, etc and the like get to stay in a super conference despite decades of sucking.

 

[WhoISthis]

I agree with much of your post, but one distinction I will make is that many UNI fans root for Iowa because most of their student body is comprised of Iowans. In 2021, only 56.1% of ISU students were Iowans. Out-of-state grads like myself would most likely not.

56% of undergrads, or overall, are Iowans?


You bring up something that is very frustrating. The state of Iowa has a huge incentive to have two public AAU, high profile, including major athletic, universities. We are surrounded by states that only have one, or none. MN, WI, Ill, and MO all with larger populations. Many of these states will see their secondary state schools contract or a few even fold in the coming decades.

We should have been in the student import business. Preventing Iowa St’s profile from declining should have political support and be intentional.

 

[Jkclone15]

56% of undergrads, or overall, are Iowans?


You bring up something that is very frustrating. The state of Iowa has a huge incentive to have two public AAU, high profile, including major athletic, universities. We are surrounded by states that only have one, or none. MN, WI, Ill, and MO all with larger populations. Many of these states will see their secondary state schools contract or a few even fold in the coming decades.

We should have been in the student import business. Preventing Iowa St’s profile from declining should have political support and be intentional.

Enrollment Statistics - Office of the Registrar

www.registrar.iastate.edu

Overall. And I completely agree. Iowa State is cheaper than Illinois, a strong semi-local choice for Minnesotans (myself included), and easier to get into than Wisconsin. I'd love to see the statistics for how many college educated adults moved to Iowa from out of state because they got their education here.

 

[ISUTex]

This already happens to a certain extent. If you attend central or western Michigan you certainly cheer for your school but you also tend to also cheer for either sparty or Michigan since they essentially operate at a different level. Your number of 64 is essentially everyone in the power 5 and you could argue it would increase ratings if sparty played a non con schedule full of other P5 schools like Arkansas instead of Youngstown state

No kidding. I bet 90% of Central Michigan students are either big Michigan, Michigan State or Notre Dame fans.

 

[baller1]

Once we get relegated we can get some fun games against our new regional rivals Northern Illinois and Western Michigan in front of 20,000 people

 

[ISUTex]

Uhhh, yeah...we're familiar with University of Northern Iowa Purple Hawkeyes fans here. (which is all of them)

No it's not. There were plenty of ISU, Nebraska and Notre Dame fans when I went there (a long ass time ago). There was even a small group who were exclusive UNI fans. I think they must've been raised in Cedar Falls, or their parents were professors, or something.

What do you expect though? UNI is in EASTERN IOWA!. A lot of UNI students are from eastern/northeastern Iowa. Central and western Iowa do not exist in the eyes of the eastern Iowa media.

Nobody really cares that much about UNI sports either. Granted, I grew up in central Iowa, but the only time I had ever heard of UNI growing up was when they upset Missouri in 1990. Or, sometimes they would give Iowa or ISU a tough game up in the Dome.

Football? Barely knew they had a team until I went to school there.