Realignment, Alliance, and the Future of College Athletics

isucy86

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I find Gene Smith’s idea interesting *especially* if it preserves something like the P5 and fixes CFB.

I think what Gene proposed is wishful thinking. He's still thinking in the box of P5 & G5. It seems like there is too much headwind from recent court rulings, litigation in the works and Justice Kavanaugh's statement for the current student-athlete model to JUST be tweaked.

There are a lot of smart and experienced people on the group being called up to come up with a new NCAA model this summer. I will be curious what they recommend.

We have started hearing "suggestions" from Blue Blood athletic program Athletic Directors (Ohio State & Notre Dame) over the last week. I have to believe some of that is floating ideas to gain interest in their idea or see what push back is received.
 

isucy86

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I don't understand how a group of 40 would emerge simultaneously from their league obligations that they're currently under. Would they all just take a bullet to get out at the same time or would like 10 leave one year and 15 join the next and so on.

We might be 15 years away. It will be interesting if the upcoming Big10, Pac12 and Big12 TV Rights deal's end dates match up with the SEC and ACC agreements which end in the mid 2030's.

The other possibility is that if enough schools decide to leave a conference does the conference cease to exist?

Or more likely what was floated when OU & UT left the Big12. That ESPN would look to renegotiate their TV deal with the Big12 because the subtraction of OU/UT reduces the ongoing value of the media deal.

Could also be that ESPN, FOX and P5 conference Presidents get together at a Ritz Carlton in Hawaii for 2 weeks in the middle of the winter and agree to a new structure. Where the Super League teams make more money and subsidize the other 40ish teams through the mid 2030's.
 

LivntheCyLife

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I think what Gene proposed is wishful thinking. He's still thinking in the box of P5 & G5. It seems like there is too much headwind from recent court rulings, litigation in the works and Justice Kavanaugh's statement for the current student-athlete model to JUST be tweaked.

There are a lot of smart and experienced people on the group being called up to come up with a new NCAA model this summer. I will be curious what they recommend.

We have started hearing "suggestions" from Blue Blood athletic program Athletic Directors (Ohio State & Notre Dame) over the last week. I have to believe some of that is floating ideas to gain interest in their idea or see what push back is received.

I continue to think Ohio St. and Gene Smith will be the biggest influence on the future of college football. In the Big 10, they are the school that likely views it as most important they keep up with the SEC.

But if they push for the Big 10 to keep up with the SEC and have something like a P2, does the SEC just dominate? And how much do they value the tradition of the Big 10? I think it's reasonable that OSU might value the current P5 set up, but to keep that it's probably going to take going on the offensive against the SEC. And is there any way to do that within the currently changing landscape?
 

HFCS

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We might be 15 years away. It will be interesting if the upcoming Big10, Pac12 and Big12 TV Rights deal's end dates match up with the SEC and ACC agreements which end in the mid 2030's.

The other possibility is that if enough schools decide to leave a conference does the conference cease to exist?

Or more likely what was floated when OU & UT left the Big12. That ESPN would look to renegotiate their TV deal with the Big12 because the subtraction of OU/UT reduces the ongoing value of the media deal.

Could also be that ESPN, FOX and P5 conference Presidents get together at a Ritz Carlton in Hawaii for 2 weeks in the middle of the winter and agree to a new structure. Where the Super League teams make more money and subsidize the other 40ish teams through the mid 2030's.

If they had any guts and weren’t afraid it’d be a relegation/promotion league where Texas would have just got busted down.
 

FriendlySpartan

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I continue to think Ohio St. and Gene Smith will be the biggest influence on the future of college football. In the Big 10, they are the school that likely views it as most important they keep up with the SEC.

But if they push for the Big 10 to keep up with the SEC and have something like a P2, does the SEC just dominate? And how much do they value the tradition of the Big 10? I think it's reasonable that OSU might value the current P5 set up, but to keep that it's probably going to take going on the offensive against the SEC. And is there any way to do that within the currently changing landscape?
In what way is the big ten behind the SEC? (Besides championships) They always make more money, usually are equal or higher in the ratings and also recruit very well against them. Not sure what else OSU can ask the big ten to do to keep them competitive. Hell just that many 5 stars going to A&M over bama makes them more competitive.
 

isucy86

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It's one of those "Be Careful What You Wish For" scenarios. I am sure some California legislators feel they are being forward thinking or equitable.

But it would surprise me if many college Presidents want to go down the pay-for-play path. I would be curious how far reaching that legislation is within California intercollegiate athletics. Does it impact D2, D3 & JUCO's? Does it impact Olympic Sports as well as FB & Hoops. I will have to check it out.

One possible outcome of legislation like this is far, far fewer opportunities for kids to go to college and get a degree using athletics as their financial aid package.
 

Mr Janny

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It's one of those "Be Careful What You Wish For" scenarios. I am sure some California legislators feel they are being forward thinking or equitable.

But it would surprise me if many college Presidents want to go down the pay-for-play path. I would be curious how far reaching that legislation is within California intercollegiate athletics. Does it impact D2, D3 & JUCO's? Does it impact Olympic Sports as well as FB & Hoops. I will have to check it out.

One possible outcome of legislation like this is far, far fewer opportunities for kids to go to college and get a degree using athletics as their financial aid package.
The verbiage on the bill is if a sport takes in more than twice as much money as it spends on scholarships for that sport, it would be required to set aside some of the money to pay the athletes I'm that sport. So, I doubt D2, D3, or JUCO would meet those criteria.
 

WhoISthis

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Not surprised this is something all conferences agree on. The Arkansas types aside, most of these ADs and presidents do not want wealth going to players in an uncapped marketplace.

 

cykadelic2

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Not surprised this is something all conferences agree on. The Arkansas types aside, most of these ADs and presidents do not want wealth going to players in an uncapped marketplace.
Wrong, they don't want pay for play beyond FCOA that is disguised as NIL and the only way to enforce it is with uniform Federal oversight and enforcement since the NCAA lacks subpoena power to do so.
 
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LivntheCyLife

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In what way is the big ten behind the SEC? (Besides championships) They always make more money, usually are equal or higher in the ratings and also recruit very well against them. Not sure what else OSU can ask the big ten to do to keep them competitive. Hell just that many 5 stars going to A&M over bama makes them more competitive.
Championships
 

WhoISthis

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In what way is the big ten behind the SEC? (Besides championships) They always make more money, usually are equal or higher in the ratings and also recruit very well against them. Not sure what else OSU can ask the big ten to do to keep them competitive. Hell just that many 5 stars going to A&M over bama makes them more competitive.
Besides championships? LOL
You recruit very well against them?

The SEC is unquestionably the top brand and top football conference. The BIG is just...BIG. Lots of people and alumni.
 

FriendlySpartan

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Championships
Besides championships? LOL
You recruit very well against them?

The SEC is unquestionably the top brand and top football conference. The BIG is just...BIG. Lots of people and alumni.
I said championships lol. Recruiting is pretty split both conferences have 3 top ten classes last year. My point kinda stands in response though as to what OSU would ask the big ten to do to compete.
 

isucy86

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The verbiage on the bill is if a sport takes in more than twice as much money as it spends on scholarships for that sport, it would be required to set aside some of the money to pay the athletes I'm that sport. So, I doubt D2, D3, or JUCO would meet those criteria.

Among the schools that could truly afford such legislation would be USC, UCLA, Stanford and Cal. If any of those 4 schools would question their football or basketball sport future, that would have earth shaking repercussions throughout California's intercollegiate athletic programs.

Below is info from another web article about the California legislation

Sportico reported that, “Based on 2018 financial figures schools provided to the U.S. Department of Education, the legislation would have worked out to FBS football players in California earning, on average, $132,000 per year ... while men’s basketball players would receive an extra $107,000 and women’s basketball players would get $15,000 more annually.”

It would be interesting to see the figures by each of the 20+ schools impacted and not averages. The article mentions the football player average would $132,000- but I bet the USC average is 2-3x that number.

Even in hoops schools like Fresno, San Jose, Santa Clara, Pepperdine, Saint Mary's, etc. may question why they want to continue to subsidize their school's athletic programs even more than they already do. I am sure most non P5 schools in California (and across the country) rely HEAVILY on their basketball revenues to fund their Olympic Sports.

It would also be interesting if the California Legislation would be outside the Federal Title IX legislation.
 

LivntheCyLife

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I said championships lol. Recruiting is pretty split both conferences have 3 top ten classes last year. My point kinda stands in response though as to what OSU would ask the big ten to do to compete.

I'm not really talking about OSU's ability to compete. I'm just thinking about what OSU's vision is for the Big 10. I'd have to think that the OU/UT's move to the SEC and changing NIL environment has to at least be considered by the Big 10. So I guess my question is OSU pushing the Big 10 to be more like the SEC with expansion and more of a national brand, trying to figure out how to slow NIL and keep a P5 status quo, or doesn't really care. I think there's several arguments for each.

As an aside, sites that make recruiting rankings have strong interest in keeping a national presence and staying popular with big fan bases. I think the NFL draft numbers are less biased and the SEC has had the most draft picks the last 16 years.
 
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WhoISthis

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I said championships lol. Recruiting is pretty split both conferences have 3 top ten classes last year. My point kinda stands in response though as to what OSU would ask the big ten to do to compete.
You said “besides championships”. That’s really all that matters.

OSU should ask the conference to spend at the SEC level on coaching. They made improvements in that regard. Go back to 8 games and scheduling FCS like the SEC.

Get the WI types to embrace pay to play. The BIG should be at the forefront of student athletes being employees rather than blackmarket commodities. Make it a war of attrition, a war of wealth, rather than one of geography and sleaze.

Ohio St should be wanting expansion. Even if defensive moves.
 

CascadeClone

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Regarding the Cali law

Finebaum dumping on someone not named SEC? Shocking!! Once again, ESPN actively trying to destabilize college football so they can create a NFL-lite league with their preferred brands (which includes USC).

Side note, some kind of pay for play along these lines - giving the players some cut of the overall revenue - in exchange for transfer or NIL regulations (in a CBA vehicle) would not be a terrible solution. The big money folks keep their advantage (ie their players get more money) but you could prevent blatant tampering.
 
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