Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[2speedy1]

Lol, you may want to revisit the timeline on last summer and adding 4 schools last year.

Within the timeframe that poster listed, you had OUT, the Big 12 schools deciding they would jump to PAC, the PAC deciding the would not add, and the Big 12 deciding on 4 G5s to add. All of that without the ticking clock that is the BIG first taking PAC schools, and the Big 12's calculus changing.

Yormark's job is to make sure PAC schools realize the latter part. The point is the Big 12 can wait more than the corner 4 can. They can't wait risk free.

The decisions happened quickly, the build up can be long. There has been a year build up to this.

It was about 6-8 weeks.

Slightly different situation.

First, we were trying to solidify our conference and in a position of need, and urgency to protect our membership. The Pac is somewhat in this position but in their case they have members that do not seem to be all together and still looking for an out, like ORWA.

Second, we elevated 4 G5/independent teams. Not brought in other P5 teams. P5 teams need to make sure it is a beneficial move. G5 teams know it is a beneficial move. It is a no brainer for them. Plus, many of the teams we were considering we had quite a bit of knowledge from just a couple years before, when we had already discussed them.

 

[Pope]

I think we need to bring back Washington U in St Louis. Bring back that historic rivalry, bring the St Louis Media market, bring the entire state of Missouri, plus southern Illinois. Big endowment!

Think of the growth potential!! I mean if SDSU has growth potential, Washington U must have many times more growth potential!

It is a win - win.

Stop being a jerk.

 

[2speedy1]

You realize that's a big part of what we're selling the 4 corners, some of which are schools that even with P5 advantages and schedules are not drawing well,? We are pushing that even though the Big 12 lacks brand appeal, that matchups with flyover states and 2nd rate Texas schools will bring passionate viewers to their games.

Right it will bring OUR viewers to their games. We dont need to entice SDSU with OUR viewers. They the 4 corners bring more viewers and value. SDSU would love to be in the B12 it would be a huge win for them. By adding them we would elevate them, they would not elevate us.

 

[WhoISthis]

You’re absolutely right about the timeline. Though I will say that we had previously vetted all those members a couple years prior before deciding against expansion. I wonder if going through that process helped expedite things at all…

Just spitballin’

We've been working on the AZ schools for awhile. And the PAC schools need far less vetting than G5s.

Speedy is nuts, the timeline is more than within reason. Whether it occurs or not is dependent in part on Yormark's ability to convey the risks to the 4 corners in waiting.

Those risks are not fabrication. If the value in the 4 corners in Big 12 is limited enough for them to wait, then it is limited enough for the Big 12 to not need to take all if the PAC is already dead.

And let's be honest, WVU and Cincinnati would have no issue with the ACC being the base of the best of rest conference. Playing with the current ACC for even a limited time of value to them. If they were to jump, it is very plausible we are one more school away from the Big 12 racing to get in the ACC. Say KU leaving to be with UNC, Duke, UVa, Louisville, Cuse etc. That protects their top asset. At that point, the ACC has its pick of Big 12 schools, and would be bias to get dissolution (6 of R8). There is not room for two AZ schools imo. And if Oregon, UW, and Cal are not in BIG, there may not be room for 2-3 of the 4 corners.

 

[2speedy1]

Stop being a jerk.

Stop being blind. SDSU is a loss for the Big 12. We would lose money. We would have to elevate them and would have to HOPE they would eventually grow to our value. They are less valuable than Oregon St! They make no sense. And would take money out of our pockets.

We dont need to add someone to kill the PAC it will happen on its own.... or it wont. We dont need to weaken ourselves to try to do it.

 

[2speedy1]

We've been working on the AZ schools for awhile. And the PAC schools need far less vetting than G5s.

Speedy is nuts, the timeline is more than within reason. Whether it occurs or not is dependent in part on Yormark's ability to convey the risks to the 4 corners in waiting.

Those risks are not fabrication. If the value in the 4 corners in Big 12 is limited enough for them to wait, then it is limited enough for the Big 12 to not need to take all if the PAC is already dead.

And let's be honest, WVU and Cincinnati would have no issue with the ACC being the base of the best of rest conference. Playing with the current ACC for even a limited time of value to them. If they were to jump, it is very plausible we are one more school away from the Big 12 racing to get in the ACC. Say KU leaving to be with UNC, Duke, UVa, Louisville, Cuse etc. That protects their top asset. At that point, the ACC has its pick of Big 12 schools, and would be bias to get dissolution (6 of R8). There is not room for two AZ schools imo. And if Oregon, UW, and Cal are not in BIG, there may not be room for 2-3 of the 4 corners.

You still are not going to put a deadline like that on these people and give them ultimatums. That is Dumb. It just shows more that you have no idea how negotiations work.

 

[cykadelic2]

In 2019 the last time they played full capacity, they averaged about 25K. Their New stadium only has a capacity of 35K, they will be lucky to fill it even in the best games.
Their viewership is pathetic averaging less than 200K.

Even with great teams, no one cares.

Jack Murphy was a complete dump for SDSU, especially last decade once the Chargers made the decision to leave there for SoFi.

I am not saying the PAC or B12 should absolutely expand with SDSU with all of potential scenarios but they sure as heck should not be automatically dismissed as an expansion candidate.

They sure as hell would be better for the B12 than bleepin Houston.

 

[CoKane]

How about adding Canadian football league? Lol just kidding.

Simon Fraser likes this idea

 

[JUKEBOX]

These are probably the winners and losers of Mountain schools going to the Big 12 (and eventually Oregon + Washington since I think Notre Dame is going to remain independent for now).

Winners:
* Big 12 - solidifies itself as the third super-conference
* Mountain schools - cash their ticket to the third super-conference where it's a possibility that they get left out otherwise
* Oregon and Washington - they would act like they lost on this deal since they didn't get in the B1G, but I believe they would make more money than they are right now
* Possibly CBS or NBC - gets a good conference + content and doesn't get locked out of CFB

Losers:
- Pac-12 remnants- whatever left in the Pac-12 is probably looking at closer to Mountain West numbers
- ACC - they probably lose their chance of being the third super-conference as long as the Big 12 is stable and their schools probably poached after GOR expires

Then probably no impact to the SEC or B1G.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

There's no question SDSU's viewership numbers would grow significantly, but the most important benefit is this move would end any reasonable expectations for the PAC expanding and surviving, and the collapse of the PAC would be the best thing to EVER happen to the Big 12 Conference.

The Pac 12 surviving has nothing to do with San Diego St, and only if Oregon, Washington and Stanford stay in the conference. If those three schools stay, the league will survive at least until the next round of expansion, if any of them leave, the league is finished. The 4 corner schools will look towards those three schools, if the are willing to sign the GOR rights, even for a limited time, the league will be fine, at least short term. If all three schools refuse to sign away their GOR rights, that could push the 4 corner schools to the B12.

What happens to San Diego St. does not matter nor move the needle either way. By expanding the B12 with them, is a silly choice, there are better teams to take, that will actually make money for the conference and have fans that support the school. San Diego has none of those things.

 

[2speedy1]

And let's be honest, WVU and Cincinnati would have no issue with the ACC being the base of the best of rest conference. Playing with the current ACC for even a limited time of value to them. If they were to jump, it is very plausible we are one more school away from the Big 12 racing to get in the ACC. Say KU leaving to be with UNC, Duke, UVa, Louisville, Cuse etc. That protects their top asset. At that point, the ACC has its pick of Big 12 schools, and would be bias to get dissolution (6 of R8). There is not room for two AZ schools imo. And if Oregon, UW, and Cal are not in BIG, there may not be room for 2-3 of the 4 corners.

Anyone that the ACC adds has to sign their current GoR until 2036. It is separate from their media deal.

If it is a significant change it can open media negotiations but not the GoR. But ESPN can and will say that any additions just adds an equal share to the current agreement. Roughly 35M, until 2036. They can negotiate and fight for more, but there is no guarantee it will ever be more going in.

No one is going to sign up for that.

The ACC is a non-factor at this point.

 

[tman24]

And with all those things, going 12-2 last year, going to the MWC championship, winning their bowl, and still only averaged 198K viewers, only good enough for 78th in the country, Well behind even Wash St and even Oregon St. Plus many other G5s, With the only P5s with lower viewership being BC and Duke.

Having a great year, actually an exceptional year, and still no one cared. SDSU not really a great add.

San Diego didnt give a **** about their pro team, why would they care about a college team.

 

[WhoISthis]

It was about 6-8 weeks.

Slightly different situation.

First, we were trying to solidify our conference and in a position of need, and urgency to protect our membership. The Pac is somewhat in this position but in their case they have members that do not seem to be all together and still looking for an out, like ORWA.

Second, we elevated 4 G5/independent teams. Not brought in other P5 teams. P5 teams need to make sure it is a beneficial move. G5 teams know it is a beneficial move. It is a no brainer for them. Plus, many of the teams we were considering we had quite a bit of knowledge from just a couple years before, when we had already discussed them.

How long do you think the USC move took? Let's not assume because you only have known for 4 weeks, things are only 4 weeks in.

Nevertheless, we are past 4 weeks, and the poster had another 4.5 at the minimum.

It is a different situation, but not as you think- the Big 12 had more ability to wait after the PAC and ACC passed with the Alliance. We could take out time. The 4 corners have a ticking time bomb with more BIG expansion.

You don't think the PAC is in a position of need? What? Did you listen to their media days? Did you listen to the BIG targeting more PAC? The PAC is considering Cal St schools and revenue raping current members with no alternatives. That is all you need to know about their position of need.

Jumping to the Big 12 from a PAC on life support isn't necessarily the lengthy decision you make it out to be- and is not exactly only 4 weeks in.

But back to the point- Yormark absolutely should be conveying the risk of the 4 corners waiting. It is not disingenuous. Whether it comes with hard time lines, I doubt, but first movers could be given preferential treatment in exchange for the certainty provided to all

 

[BCClone]

The Pac 12 surviving has nothing to do with San Diego St, and only if Oregon, Washington and Stanford stay in the conference. If those three schools stay, the league will survive at least until the next round of expansion, if any of them leave, the league is finished. The 4 corner schools will look towards those three schools, if the are willing to sign the GOR rights, even for a limited time, the league will be fine, at least short term. If all three schools refuse to sign away their GOR rights, that could push the 4 corner schools to the B12.

What happens to San Diego St. does not matter nor move the needle either way. By expanding the B12 with them, is a silly choice, there are better teams to take, that will actually make money for the conference and have fans that support the school. San Diego has none of those things.

Agree except for if the four corners would all leave, I think that would choke off the PAC also. It would be Oregon, Washington, the tree and 7-9 who are they? schools.

 

[BCClone]

How long do you think the USC move took? Let's not assume because you only have known for 4 weeks, things are only 4 weeks in.

Nevertheless, we are past 4 weeks, and the poster had another 4.5 at the minimum.

It is a different situation, but not as you think- the Big 12 had more ability to wait after the PAC and ACC passed with the Alliance. We could take out time. The 4 corners have a ticking time bomb with more BIG expansion.

You don't think the PAC is in a position of need? What? Did you listen to their media days? Did you listen to the BIG targeting more PAC? The PAC is considering Cal St schools and revenue raping current members with no alternatives. That is all you need to know about their position of need.

Jumping to the Big 12 from a PAC on life support isn't necessarily the lengthy decision you make it out to be- and is not exactly only 4 weeks in.

But back to the point- Yormark absolutely should be conveying the risk of the 4 corners waiting. It is not disingenuous. Whether it comes with hard time lines, I doubt, but first movers could be given preferential treatment in exchange for the certainty provided to all

Basically tell the four corners that we are waiting on UW and UO to decide so we are only accepting two right now, could be two if the big two don’t come but maybe not. Get two to get that PAC 12 stool even more wobbly then it already is.

 

[WhoISthis]

Anyone that the ACC adds has to sign their current GoR until 2036. It is separate from their media deal.

If it is a significant change it can open media negotiations but not the GoR. But ESPN can and will say that any additions just adds an equal share to the current agreement. Roughly 35M, until 2036. They can negotiate and fight for more, but there is no guarantee it will ever be more going in.

No one is going to sign up for that.

The ACC is a non-factor at this point.

Maybe, maybe not. You'd be surprised at what can be done when all sides benefit- ESPN, ACC leftovers, ACC football schools, Big 12 schools that start the process etc.

Regardless, you think WVU and Cincinnati would have an issue with that- being with ACC schools for 14 years? Once that occurred, what happens next is anyone's guess, but one very reasonable guess is that KU would be tempted to play with those basketball schools. The Big 12 would be in a very precarious situation.

The risk is FAR from non-zero, and that is motivating to both the 4 corners and Yormark to get a deal done sooner than later.

 

[2speedy1]

Jack Murphy was a complete dump for SDSU, especially last decade once the Chargers made the decision to leave there for SoFi.

I am not saying the PAC or B12 should absolutely expand with SDSU with all of potential scenarios but they sure as heck should not be automatically dismissed as an expansion candidate.

They sure as hell would be better for the B12 than bleepin Houston.

Except Murphy has nothing to do with viewership, and in a year like last year, where Houston and SDSU had similar seasons, while Houston also did not have great viewership compared to our other adds it still did better than SDSU.

Houston was our worst add of the 4 we added.

Houston ranked 74th averaging 232K
SDSU ranked 78th averaging 198K

Both went 12-2

UCF going 9-4 had about double the average viewers.
BYU more than 4X
Cinci was almost equal to Iowa State, at 1.2M+ average

 

[CloneJD]

FFS big 12 president’s are a bit hesitant to add pac12 schools let alone a school like SDSU.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Agree except for if the four corners would all leave, I think that would choke off the PAC also. It would be Oregon, Washington, the tree and 7-9 who are they? schools.

True, but if given a choice, leave the Pac 12, or try to rebrand it around Oregon and the other schools, I tend to think they will stay, and then league will expand a couple of teams.
That is why the GOR rights are so important, it signals to the other schools, what a school thinks about the future of the league.

This whole thing may not get solved this season, and until the P12 schools know how much money they are going to get in their next TV package, it's really silly to try and figure out what they are going to do.
It looks now like the B10 is applying pressure to ND and is willing to give them time to figure out what they are going to do, if their NBC contract comes back to the 75 million, they want, they will stay an independent, but if it only increases a little, that may give them the idea that now is the time to join a conference.

Lots of moving parts, all working against each other right now, so it's hard to predict what is going to happen.

 

[WhoISthis]

You still are not going to put a deadline like that on these people and give them ultimatums. That is Dumb. It just shows more that you have no idea how negotiations work.

Are you sure you know how things work? Let me remind you of what you posted:

"All you people that think this will or has to happen immediately really dont understand how things work. None of these decisions happen that fast. And if any of them involve legal matters they take a LOT longer."

I'm getting the impression you don't follow this- they DO happen fast if you're not paying attention. Most know a lot of work has been done for awhile, before June 30th. 8-12 weeks after the USC news broke is with-in reason for a follow-up move.

But the main thing is that you are missing the point- the 4 corners can wait but that waiting is not risk free. And those potential costs will be conveyed. Having incentives for first movers that reduce uncertainty is very common.

Again, whether a explicit timeline is given, I doubt, but not unusual if Yormark is willing to stick to it. If he knows certain dates that are important for networks or has been given by Big 12 members a timeframe to answer to before other possibilities are explored.