ISU PFF Offensive Line Grade Analysis

[cymonw1980]

Dumb question but is there an average OL grade for B12/P5 listed?

no... I calculated this "avg grade". You can see the calculation logic in the "notes" at the bottom.

Here is an example for 2015:

Take the player grade x player snaps to get a weighted grade that can then be summed and divided by total snaps to get a team average....



Pulled this data for every player from every team to grade out every school. Added a filter for conference and "P5" to the data set.

NOTE: I only included players that appeared in at least 4 games and had a total of 100 offensive snaps for the year (for offensive linemen).

 

[CyPhallus]

Side by side 2015 vs. 2021 (MIN: 100 snaps, 4 games):

View attachment 101257 View attachment 101259

Class = Recruiting Class

I have no idea of what metrics they use to determine their grades but the 2015 grades look suspiciously high. Campos at 80 is laughable.

 

[Frak]

My half-baked theory is Brock Purdy is a big reason for that. Though he didn’t play often, our line looked just fine when Dekkers was in.

Saw a breakdown a few years ago how QBs can make or break lines. Purdy was a GREAT QB, but he almost always was moving around in the pocket as soon as he got the ball, which can end all assignments and essentially puts a line in scramble mode.

Go watch film of Dekkers and he’s completely still in the pocket until he’s under pressure.

Just wait until Dekkers has 3 years of getting his head taken off. He'll be skittish in the pocket as well. Purdy stuck in the pocket more as a FR than he did as a SR. So did Arnaud, so did Richardson. Guys that looked great as FR and either got knocked out or were a shell of themselves as a SR. QBs since McCarney have gotten worse every year because they're getting hit too much and that will continue. That is, unless the OL vastly improves and they get some protection. ISU QBs have routinely regressed and that's because they get the crap knocked out of them.

I don't get how you can have an OL guy as HC, an OL guy as OC and then a former OL starter for those two at OL coach and we're sitting here pining for an average B12 OL in Year 7. But that's what we're doing. Has not happened yet. And IMO a big reason is that iowa is putting OLs in the league and basically has their pick of in-state OLs every year.

 

[BCClone]

Just wait until Dekkers has 3 years of getting his head taken off. He'll be skittish in the pocket as well. Purdy stuck in the pocket more as a FR than he did as a SR. So did Arnaud, so did Richardson. Guys that looked great as FR and either got knocked out or were a shell of themselves as a SR. QBs since McCarney have gotten worse every year because they're getting hit too much and that will continue. That is, unless the OL vastly improves and they get some protection. ISU QBs have routinely regressed and that's because they get the crap knocked out of them.

I don't get how you can have an OL guy as HC, an OL guy as OC and then a former OL starter for those two at OL coach and we're sitting here pining for an average B12 OL in Year 7. But that's what we're doing. Has not happened yet. And IMO a big reason is that iowa is putting OLs in the league and basically has their pick of in-state OLs every year.

Actually Brock sat in the pocket more his second and third years than his first and last. They told him to not run and scramble as much due to the he backup situation.

 

[Aclone]

I understand PFF grades can be controversial... however, I do think outside of getting the grades directly from the coaching staff (which will never happen) it's about the best analysis you can get for a player's down to down performance. There are also very limited stats for offensive linemen so it is tricky to evaluate without some kind of grading system.

I took a look at our PFF grades for our offense overall and did a deeper dive on the Offensive Line since I believe this group is critical to our performance going forward and was a significant (negative) outlier in our grading since Campbell's first season (2016).


Offensive PFF Grades by Position*

Offensive Line: Past 3 yrs vs. Pre-Campbell -11.7
8 Yr Avg (2014-2021): 66.2
2014-2015 (pre-Campbell): 74.8
2016-2021 (Campbell): 63.1
2019-2021: 63.1

Wide Receivers: Past 3 yrs vs. Pre-Campbell +5.1
8 Yr Avg (2014-2021): 65.5
2014-2015 (pre-Campbell): 60.6
2016-2021 (Campbell): 67.9
2019-2021: 65.7

Tight End: Past 3 yrs vs. Pre-Campbell +14.3
8 Yr Avg (2014-2021): 67.2
2014-2015 (pre-Campbell): 61.3
2016-2021 (Campbell): 68.3
2019-2021: 75.5

Running Back: Past 3 yrs vs. Pre-Campbell: +12.5
8 Yr Avg (2014-2021): 73.1
2014-2015 (pre-Campbell): 64.1
2016-2021 (Campbell): 76.2
2019-2021: 76.6


Quarter Back: Past 3 yrs vs. Pre-Campbell: +11.2
8 Yr Avg (2014-2021): 74.0
2014-2015 (pre-Campbell): 67.5
2016-2021 (Campbell): 76.3
2019-2021: 78.7

Overall, strong gains across almost all positions on offense, except offensive line where we took a pretty significant step back since 2015.

Offensive Line Grading Analysis:
First, I took a look at our progression the last 8 years. A couple things jumped out.

1) Our best year was 2015 when we ranked #20 nationally in average overall grades on the offensive line (78.2 avg grade).

2) Since 2015, we have only had a player grade out over 70 three times (Brian Bobek 2016, Patrick Scoggins 2016, and Trevor Downing 2021). In both 2014 and 2015 our average OL grade was over 70. In 2015 five offensive linemen graded out over 70, and in 2014 four grade out over 70.

3) Finally, none of the Offensive Linemen brought in from the 2016 class forward, have graded out above the 2014-2015 average grade of 74.8 (best grade was Trevor Downing 72.9 in 2021). The best offensive line grade since 2015 was Patrick Scoggins in 2016 but he was a JUCO in the class of 2015).

View attachment 101256

Next, I took our Offensive Line grades by season and compared them to Kansas State, Iowa, and the P5 Average Grades:

View attachment 101253
Every year since 2015 (when we ranked #20 overall) we have graded out below the P5 average on the offensive line. KSU has the highest 8 year average grade in the B12 (#10 overall, OU is #11). Iowa has the highest 8 year average offensive line grade and is consistently in the top 10 year to year. Outside of 2020, KSU has consistently been in the top 10-20.


My Take Away:

1) Offensive Line Must Improve
2) We have had some of the greatest success in program history with limitations on OL
3) I have faith that Campbell will get this turned around; when that happens we win 10+


*NOTE: PFF NCAA grades only go back to 2014. So the data sets cover 2014-2021. The average grades are based on (snap count * grade for each player)/(total snaps) = Avg Grade Per Snap. I removed players with fewer than 100 snaps on the offensive line or fewer than 4 games with playing time; for skill positions I eliminated players with fewer than 50 snaps and fewer than 4 games on offense to focus on players with significant contributions each year.

You wasted WAY too much time on anything PFF college related. The fact that they thought the OL was better pre-Campbell should have been your first clue. Those lines were horrible.

“Controversial” and “sucks moose wang” are not synonyms.

 

[Aclone]

I believe we really need to go to a 4 man front on the defensive line. Force Iowa to be one dimensional and to beat you through the air. Occasionally sending an extra man from varying positions.

I’m not going to disagree about our OL not having been good, but PFF’s grades for collegiate players are laughable at best. Remember that Breece wasn’t one of the top RB’s in the country last year?

Those comparisons between ‘15 and ‘21 are just plain ludicrous.

 

[twojman]

I don't feel these are ludicrous at all. We've talked for years how bad the OL has been. Wonder how many more wins between 19&21 ISU would have had with a grade of say 68. Picking up a first down here or there can really change a drive/game/season.

 

[CoachHines3]

I can't believe you thought you needed that much data to prove a point that every Clone fan that even casually follows this team knows.

That was mean cyforce

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

My half-baked theory is Brock Purdy is a big reason for that. Though he didn’t play often, our line looked just fine when Dekkers was in.

Saw a breakdown a few years ago how QBs can make or break lines. Purdy was a GREAT QB, but he almost always was moving around in the pocket as soon as he got the ball, which can end all assignments and essentially puts a line in scramble mode.

Go watch film of Dekkers and he’s completely still in the pocket until he’s under pressure.

I think Brock had a hard time seeing down field causing him to be late or get happy feet.

 

[cymonw1980]

You wasted WAY too much time on anything PFF college related. The fact that they thought the OL was better pre-Campbell should have been your first clue. Those lines were horrible.

“Controversial” and “sucks moose wang” are not synonyms.

Fans tend to over value specific plays and are not looking at contributions snap to snap. Generally, I would say they do pretty well... but that is just my take. understand others have their own feelings.

Also, the fact that EVERY other position group significantly improved under Campbell is also telling. It's not that they don't see progress overall, it is specific to the OL. I think it is pretty obvious to most who have watched ISU that OL play has been less then ideal.

Finally, ISU has put many more guys in the NFL the last few years... none of them have been at OL.

If we have a dominant OL we beat the UNIs and Drakes by 3+ scores. We have not controlled the line of scrimmage against lesser opponents... when we dominate physically on the OL it's an ISU blow out. We've struggled to dominate lesser teams.

 

[bozclone]

In 2015 we were 3-9 with wins over UNI, Kansas, and Texas.

 

[twojman]

In 2015 we were 3-9 with wins over UNI, Kansas, and Texas.

...and the talent level on that team was so low. OL was probably the best unit out there. Offense or defense. We were real bad.

 

[Cyforce]

That was mean cyforce

Apparently dumb too.

 

[cymonw1980]

In 2015 we were 3-9 with wins over UNI, Kansas, and Texas.

yes... look at the rest of the offensive grades. We have made huge strides at every position except OL.

QB: +11.2
RB: +12.5
TE: +14.3
WR: +5.1
OL: -11.7

It is not an avg team grade... it's an avg OL grade.

 

[AuH2O]

Gotta stop the shuffling. Don’t blow up the whole line when someone gets injured because it’s the “5 beat lineman”. Put the #2 in if the #1 gets hurt and try to build something.

This. I freaking hate the total flopping guys around. If an injury to one guy leads to a multiple guys moving positions, that is a problem. C, G and T are distinct positions.

 

[CascadeClone]

You wasted WAY too much time on anything PFF college related. The fact that they thought the OL was better pre-Campbell should have been your first clue. Those lines were horrible.

“Controversial” and “sucks moose wang” are not synonyms.

What IS a good synonym for "sucks moose wang"?

 

[CascadeClone]

This. I freaking hate the total flopping guys around. If an injury to one guy leads to a multiple guys moving positions, that is a problem. C, G and T are distinct positions.

Maybe that is the philosophical change that is needed?

I hate to even ask the question, but what does ToE do? They DO have a good track record with OL. Do they flop the lines around for "best group" or do they just sub one guy in and leave the rest?

 

[cymonw1980]

One thing to add - I am hopeful that CMC will get this turned around.

His last two years at Toledo their Avg OL grades were 82.1 (2014) and 84.8 (2015). I understand that was at the MAC level. But I do think they will get it done.

They really kind of struck out the first few classes on the HS OL they brought in. I think they are doing better now, but it takes a few years before they can contribute.

 

[demoncore1031]

I understand PFF grades can be controversial... however, I do think outside of getting the grades directly from the coaching staff (which will never happen) it's about the best analysis you can get for a player's down to down performance. There are also very limited stats for offensive linemen so it is tricky to evaluate without some kind of grading system.

I took a look at our PFF grades for our offense overall and did a deeper dive on the Offensive Line since I believe this group is critical to our performance going forward and was a significant (negative) outlier in our grading since Campbell's first season (2016).


Offensive PFF Grades by Position*

Offensive Line: Past 3 yrs vs. Pre-Campbell -11.7
8 Yr Avg (2014-2021): 66.2
2014-2015 (pre-Campbell): 74.8
2016-2021 (Campbell): 63.1
2019-2021: 63.1

Wide Receivers: Past 3 yrs vs. Pre-Campbell +5.1
8 Yr Avg (2014-2021): 65.5
2014-2015 (pre-Campbell): 60.6
2016-2021 (Campbell): 67.9
2019-2021: 65.7

Tight End: Past 3 yrs vs. Pre-Campbell +14.3
8 Yr Avg (2014-2021): 67.2
2014-2015 (pre-Campbell): 61.3
2016-2021 (Campbell): 68.3
2019-2021: 75.5

Running Back: Past 3 yrs vs. Pre-Campbell: +12.5
8 Yr Avg (2014-2021): 73.1
2014-2015 (pre-Campbell): 64.1
2016-2021 (Campbell): 76.2
2019-2021: 76.6


Quarter Back: Past 3 yrs vs. Pre-Campbell: +11.2
8 Yr Avg (2014-2021): 74.0
2014-2015 (pre-Campbell): 67.5
2016-2021 (Campbell): 76.3
2019-2021: 78.7

Overall, strong gains across almost all positions on offense, except offensive line where we took a pretty significant step back since 2015.

Offensive Line Grading Analysis:
First, I took a look at our progression the last 8 years. A couple things jumped out.

1) Our best year was 2015 when we ranked #20 nationally in average overall grades on the offensive line (78.2 avg grade).

2) Since 2015, we have only had a player grade out over 70 three times (Brian Bobek 2016, Patrick Scoggins 2016, and Trevor Downing 2021). In both 2014 and 2015 our average OL grade was over 70. In 2015 five offensive linemen graded out over 70, and in 2014 four grade out over 70.

3) Finally, none of the Offensive Linemen brought in from the 2016 class forward, have graded out above the 2014-2015 average grade of 74.8 (best grade was Trevor Downing 72.9 in 2021). The best offensive line grade since 2015 was Patrick Scoggins in 2016 but he was a JUCO in the class of 2015).

View attachment 101256

Next, I took our Offensive Line grades by season and compared them to Kansas State, Iowa, and the P5 Average Grades:

View attachment 101253
Every year since 2015 (when we ranked #20 overall) we have graded out below the P5 average on the offensive line. KSU has the highest 8 year average grade in the B12 (#10 overall, OU is #11). Iowa has the highest 8 year average offensive line grade and is consistently in the top 10 year to year. Outside of 2020, KSU has consistently been in the top 10-20.


My Take Away:

1) Offensive Line Must Improve
2) We have had some of the greatest success in program history with limitations on OL
3) I have faith that Campbell will get this turned around; when that happens we win 10+


*NOTE: PFF NCAA grades only go back to 2014. So the data sets cover 2014-2021. The average grades are based on (snap count * grade for each player)/(total snaps) = Avg Grade Per Snap. I removed players with fewer than 100 snaps on the offensive line or fewer than 4 games with playing time; for skill positions I eliminated players with fewer than 50 snaps and fewer than 4 games on offense to focus on players with significant contributions each year.

NERD!!!!!

 

[cymonw1980]

NERD!!!!!

true.