Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[PickSix]

I found the first 5 minutes of this interesting. These two guys are sports radio hosts out in Salt Lake City. Per there sources Pac-12 is maxed out at 300 million for 5 years.

This is the type of content I crave. Thanks for sharing.

One point I think others are missing that was hinted at in the video, is that each school would get an "average" of $30 mil per year. I took that to mean that unequal revenue sharing is probably the route things are going down.

So the $7 mil gap is going to be a lot more for teams currently struggling on the field ie. Arizona and Colorado.

I hope these guys know what they're talking about, because it sounds REALLY good for the Big 12.

 

[iahawks]

Agree. The only way they join is if they're forced to as a way to keep access to the playoff.

And that will probably never happen.

 

[Clonehomer]

This is the type of content I crave. Thanks for sharing.

One point I think others are missing that was hinted at in the video, is that each school would get an "average" of $30 mil per year. I took that to mean that unequal revenue sharing is probably the route things are going down.

So the $7 mil gap is going to be a lot more for teams currently struggling on the field ie. Arizona and Colorado.

I hope these guys know what they're talking about, because it sounds REALLY good for the Big 12.

Typically they lost the revenue as an average as there are escalators in the contract. So year 1 you may get $28M and that'll increase every year until the final year you get $32M. I assume that's what they meant by the average. They wouldn't come out with that language based on unequal sharing as that would be very contentious and needs to be agreed to first.

 

[theshadow]

One point I think others are missing that was hinted at in the video, is that each school would get an "average" of $30 mil per year. I took that to mean that unequal revenue sharing is probably the route things are going down.

"Average" isn't a new term when it comes to reporting conference distributions. For instance, not every school in the Big 12 or ACC gets the exact same amount of money from their respective league.

The most recent ACC documents show a $6M difference between top and bottom (aside from Notre Dame's partial share). For the Big 12, it's around $3.5M.

 

[BryceC]

Typically they lost the revenue as an average as there are escalators in the contract. So year 1 you may get $28M and that'll increase every year until the final year you get $32M. I assume that's what they meant by the average. They wouldn't come out with that language based on unequal sharing as that would be very contentious and needs to be agreed to first.

I was thinking it was both.

#1 - Oregon and Washington aren't staying for 30 million and sharing that same amount with every team.
#2 - The contract will start lower and increase over the life of the deal.

 

[aeroclone]

I was thinking it was both.

#1 - Oregon and Washington aren't staying for 30 million and sharing that same amount with every team.
#2 - The contract will start lower and increase over the life of the deal.

Washington and Oregon are only leaving if they have an option that has a big enough bump. Sure, they would leave for the B1G, but the B1G has to want them too.

Does the B12 have enough of a financial advantage to make the switch? We would surely take them, but we have to show enough of a cash advantage to pull them away.

At this point, I'm actually guessing there is no more movement. I'm predicting nobody else adds enough value to get a B1G invite, and the B12 doesn't pull far enough ahead of the Pac to entice anyone to come here.

 

[LLCoolCY]

The California regents meeting doesn’t seem to be saving the PAC12 as some had out west hoped.

 

[Daserop]

The California regents meeting doesn’t seem to be saving the PAC12 as some had out west hoped.

To the surprise of only Pac 12 writers.

 

[knowlesjam]

Washington and Oregon are only leaving if they have an option that has a big enough bump. Sure, they would leave for the B1G, but the B1G has to want them too.

Does the B12 have enough of a financial advantage to make the switch? We would surely take them, but we have to show enough of a cash advantage to pull them away.

At this point, I'm actually guessing there is no more movement. I'm predicting nobody else adds enough value to get a B1G invite, and the B12 doesn't pull far enough ahead of the Pac to entice anyone to come here.

Except Wash and Oregon may be stuck...they don't have the $ value of USC/UCLA or they would have been grabbed by the BIG or SEC...so, they cheerfully take $30M a year and fall woefully behind their so-called peers in the BIG/SEC...heck, even the Big 12. If they even bring up uneven revenue sharing the corner schools are gone. Then you make even less than $30M.

Makes you wonder if they have some sort of nuclear option where they tell the BIG/SEC that they will move if the payout is kept low...say $40M a year for the next 10+ years. Basically sell their souls...

...might even be too late for that.

 

[BCClone]

Washington and Oregon are only leaving if they have an option that has a big enough bump. Sure, they would leave for the B1G, but the B1G has to want them too.

Does the B12 have enough of a financial advantage to make the switch? We would surely take them, but we have to show enough of a cash advantage to pull them away.

At this point, I'm actually guessing there is no more movement. I'm predicting nobody else adds enough value to get a B1G invite, and the B12 doesn't pull far enough ahead of the Pac to entice anyone to come here.

UO and UW have to be careful. If they do unequal shares, AZ and CU may be in that 20MM area. The big 12 could say they would start them there and in 3 years have them at the 50ish area of the rest. Or even 40 if 50 seems too high. That could get them to jump and basically collapse the PAC and then UO and UW would be flailing around looking for some place to land. The big 12 could then force them to take a stair step revenue also.

 

[BCClone]

To the surprise of only Pac 12 writers.

So at 500MM pac value, USC is estimated at 150 and UCLA at 50. That has to mean that 4-6 schools are in that 10 MM area.

 

[alarson]

UO and UE have to be careful. If they do unequal shares, AZ and CU may be in that 20MM area. The big 12 could say they would start them there and in 3 years have them at the 50ish area of the rest. Or even 40 if 50 seems too high. That could get them to jump and basically collapse the PAC and then UO and UW would be flailing around looking for some place to land. The big 12 could then force them to take a stair step revenue also.

Honestly they could start them with full shares and know that destabilizing the PAC means that the PAC's inventory is worthless, putting the big12 in a great place negotiating with ESPN who would need content after losing the big 10 and the PAC content becoming worthless.

 

[KnappShack]

Goddam it.

ESPN investing in the PAC...

 

[Statefan10]

Goddam it.

ESPN investing in the PAC...

I think people weren’t watching the PAC because of other reasons, not the fuzziness of the broadcast lol

 

[BCClone]

People wonder why CU is attractive to the big XII even though their individual value isn’t that great, what it does is give us a second Mountain time zone school. It also really injures the PAC. We could probably hold value with CU by having at least one late game each week with CU and BYU.

 

[KnappShack]

People wonder why CU is attractive to the big XII even though their individual value isn’t that great, what it does is give us a second Mountain time zone school. It also really injures the PAC. We could probably hold value with CU by having at least one late game each week with CU and BYU.

I'm all for forcing K-State and Baylor to kickoff at 9 pm if need be

 

[Hoggins]

Goddam it.

ESPN investing in the PAC...

This isn’t really realignment related. I watched these broadcasts last year and they were atrocious. It’s more of a reflection of ESPN value in investing in #AfterDark games

ESPN wants them for as cheaply as possible. Not great for the PAC 12 again.

 

[isucy86]

The networks are failures if they get folded in. And the cable companies will stop carrying them if all they show is volleyball. And then we are back to failure status.

The games on SECN &ACCN are tier3, just like Big12 games on ESPN+.

With the 2021/22 season ESPN started putting non-conference football and basketball games on ESPN+. So just a matter of time before they start moving conference games to a streaming platform.

The conference networks are successful only because cable and streaming companies pass the carriage costs to 100% of customers. Here are numbers from Variety showing "regular" viewership by customers for each sports network:

• BTN - 4.1%
• SECN - 3.1%
• ACCN *2.2%

Just a matter of time before cable & streaming companies push back and conference networks are part of a subscription model.

 

[isucy86]

Then it would be the P5 championship, not national championship. You can’t really call it the national championship if you restrict access to it.

NDSU has national champion football teams. So does Mount Union.

National Championships are promoted at all levels of college football- D1, D2, D3, NAIA. A split of D1 between P5 & G5 is just an additional way to name another national champ and way to create a revenue stream that G5 schools to share.

The Big10 & SEC could do the same and create their own National Championship, but they know its not in their best interest. If they can put 10-12 teams in 16 team playoff, they would be happy. That's not unreasonable if we eventually move to 3 or 4 "power" football conferences.

 

[alarson]

NDSU has national champion football teams. So does Mount Union.

National Championships are promoted at all levels of college football- D1, D2, D3, NAIA. A split of D1 between P5 & G5 is just an additional way to name another national champ and way to create a revenue stream that G5 schools to share.

The Big10 & SEC could do the same and create their own National Championship, but they know its not in their best interest. If they can put 10-12 teams in 16 team playoff, they would be happy. That's not unreasonable if we eventually move to 3 or 4 "power" football conferences.

There's a middle ground they could go with- creating their own championship but inviting any they deem worthy. Of course, they'd control the criteria and these would likely heavily value their own teams, so you might see 2-3 teams from other conferences.