Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[exCyDing]

Except Wash and Oregon may be stuck...they don't have the $ value of USC/UCLA or they would have been grabbed by the BIG or SEC...so, they cheerfully take $30M a year and fall woefully behind their so-called peers in the BIG/SEC...heck, even the Big 12. If they even bring up uneven revenue sharing the corner schools are gone. Then you make even less than $30M.

Makes you wonder if they have some sort of nuclear option where they tell the BIG/SEC that they will move if the payout is kept low...say $40M a year for the next 10+ years. Basically sell their souls...

...might even be too late for that.

I think the Big 10 hopefuls just want the PAC to hold together long enough to get that Big 10 invite, but I don't know that anyone left in the PAC is a Big 10 target. I think they want to see who shakes loose from the ACC when their GOR is up. Anyone else they take from the PAC would be just to balance out their numbers.

Unequal revenue distribution is probably not a viable option at the end of the day. Let's say the PAC ends up at $30m/ and the Big XII is at $37m. OR and WA demand Big XII-type money, and Stanford things their entitled to that as well. That knocks the average of the rest of the conference down to $27m per year.

That would be a tough sell to the corner schools, as now they're giving up $10m per year they could get in the Big XII. Say they think moving for less than $5m a year probably isn't worth it, so they're all need to be at $32m.

Now there's $61m left for Cal, WA St and OR St to divvy up, or $20.3m each. Sure, that's a lot more than they could get in the MWC, but would they go for making a little more than half of what the top of the conference is getting and 2/3 of what most of the conference gets? Or would they tell everyone to get bent?

 

[Clonedogg]

I'm all for forcing K-State and Baylor to kickoff at 9 pm if need be

Let's get the time zones adjusted and move Lubbock into the MTZ.

 

[mkadl]

NDSU has national champion football teams. So does Mount Union.

National Championships are promoted at all levels of college football- D1, D2, D3, NAIA. A split of D1 between P5 & G5 is just an additional way to name another national champ and way to create a revenue stream that G5 schools to share.

The Big10 & SEC could do the same and create their own National Championship, but they know its not in their best interest. If they can put 10-12 teams in 16 team playoff, they would be happy. That's not unreasonable if we eventually move to 3 or 4 "power" football conferences.

District football. Similar to High School.

 

[Klubber]

I was thinking it was both.

#1 - Oregon and Washington aren't staying for 30 million and sharing that same amount with every team.
#2 - The contract will start lower and increase over the life of the deal.

And even at it's best payout, that contract amount's a pittance.

What did the Big XII pay out this last year, around $43MM/per I think? So the PAC would be well below the Big XII now and in the future based on projections for the Big XII going forward.

And of course compared to the B1G & SEC, the PAC wouldn't even be on the same planet.

If it's true that SDSU is also not interested in joining the PAC, then they're totally screwed.

 

[HawaiiClone]

This is a weird, sad flex attempt by the Mountain West.

I misspoke about the message that the Tweet had. It was a cherry picked stat presented in an ostentatious way that misleads someone who doesn't look at the votes received by the teams. But an educated fan looks at the votes and sees it for what it's worth. They should have just stated the number of votes the teams got and then said that while they got much fewer votes than the Big 12 and Pac 12 teams, they happened to have as many or more teams receiving votes as those conferences.

 

[HawaiiClone]

You don’t think the statements above the graphic say we are just good as the big 12 and better than the PAC 12? Fair enough.

I misspoke about the message that the Tweet had. It was a cherry picked stat presented in an ostentatious way that misleads someone who doesn't look at the votes received by the teams. But an educated fan looks at the votes and sees it for what it's worth. They should have just stated the number of votes the teams got and then said that while they got much fewer votes than the Big 12 and Pac 12 teams, they happened to have as many or more teams receiving votes as those conferences.

 

[cyclonepower]

And even at it's best payout, that contract amount's a pittance.

What did the Big XII pay out this last year, around $43MM/per I think? So the PAC would be well below the Big XII now and in the future based on projections for the Big XII going forward.

And of course compared to the B1G & SEC, the PAC wouldn't even be on the same planet.

If it's true that SDSU is also not interested in joining the PAC, then they're totally screwed.

I believe tv revenue last yr was around 37-38 then with everything else got us to 42-43

 

[cyIclSoneU]

If it's true that SDSU is also not interested in joining the PAC, then they're totally screwed.

Who is saying this?

 

[isucy86]

Washington and Oregon are only leaving if they have an option that has a big enough bump. Sure, they would leave for the B1G, but the B1G has to want them too.

Does the B12 have enough of a financial advantage to make the switch? We would surely take them, but we have to show enough of a cash advantage to pull them away.

At this point, I'm actually guessing there is no more movement. I'm predicting nobody else adds enough value to get a B1G invite, and the B12 doesn't pull far enough ahead of the Pac to entice anyone to come here.

Other than unequal revenue sharing. The other way for teams like Oregon & Washington to make $40M-$50M is to convince Big12 top money teams to consolidate.

If the Pac12 expects $30M /school each year and the Big12 expects $40M /school each Year, by combining the top x in each conference a consolidated Big12/Pac12 should make $45-$50M. Those kind of #'s would get the attention of Oregon, Washington, etc.

Just a matter if $5-$10M/year would influence the highest media value Big12 schools to come to the table and create a NEW conference.

 

[Clonedogg]

Who is saying this?

That SLC YouTube video.

 

[JUKEBOX]

I just can't see taking Colorado over Utah.

Reason I went with Colorado was because I thought they would be one of the more-likely teams to defect.

IMO it would be a bonehead administrative decision for the Mountain schools to stay in the Pac-12 unless the analyst numbers are completely off.

If they leave, they can:
1. Get paid more
2. Be in a more stable conference
3. For some schools, they can probably reduce travel costs

If they stay:
1. Get paid less
2. Be in an unstable conference
3. Potentially be on the outside looking in and/or lose all negotiating leverage if Oregon/Washington/Stanford/Cal move first (so I would think they would be taking reduced shares for some period of time if accepted to the Big 12)

 

[2speedy1]

I believe tv revenue last yr was around 37-38 then with everything else got us to 42-43

I believe you are correct. But I believe that a few of the things that the Big 12 is making money on, the Pac 12 has actually consistently lost a significant amount on. For instance, the Big 12 is making a significant amount on tier 3, the Pac 12 has the PAC Network for its tier 3 and that has consistently lost millions each year, etc.

So when we have Tv money that is 38M plus ad reve tickets bowls etc. to get to 43M.
If they get a deal worth 30M per then -2M per for the loss taken by Pac Net they only start at 28M. Then what the rest adds, which also is not as much as what the Big 12 has made.

Plus the extreme costs their conference management has. Like the costs for their office in San Fran, etc. They waste more money than they pay.

 

[Clonedogg]

Other than unequal revenue sharing. The other way for teams like Oregon & Washington to make $40M-$50M is to convince Big12 top money teams to consolidate.

If the Pac12 expects $30M /school each year and the Big12 expects $40M /school each Year, by combining the top x in each conference a consolidated Big12/Pac12 should make $45-$50M. Those kind of #'s would get the attention of Oregon, Washington, etc.

Just a matter if $5-$10M/year would influence the highest media value Big12 schools to come to the table and create a NEW conference.

Um that sounds dangerous for ISU. We could be on the outside looking in.

 

[Gonzo]

I believe tv revenue last yr was around 37-38 then with everything else got us to 42-43

Yeah, I think the Pac's numbers don't include everything else. If those estimates are right then it's sounding like accurate reports that Pac might end up $7-$8 mill/year behind the Big 12.

 

[isucy86]

I believe you are correct. But I believe that a few of the things that the Big 12 is making money on, the Pac 12 has actually consistently lost a significant amount on. For instance, the Big 12 is making a significant amount on tier 3, the Pac 12 has the PAC Network for its tier 3 and that has consistently lost millions each year, etc.

So when we have Tv money that is 38M plus ad reve tickets bowls etc. to get to 43M.
If they get a deal worth 30M per then -2M per for the loss taken by Pac Net they only start at 28M. Then what the rest adds, which also is not as much as what the Big 12 has made.

Plus the extreme costs their conference management has. Like the costs for their office in San Fran, etc. They waste more money than they pay.

The Pac12 could remove that negative for the Pac12 Network by going with a Fox, ESPN, Apple, Amazon, etc for their tier 3 rights with their next contract.

Also, I don't believe the Pac12 Network has always been the loss suffered the last couple years. The loss of games during Covid was a big driver. No games early in the season and then when they did start playing they would have put games on Fox/ESPN vs. Pac12N. Even then there were late season cancelled games that were to be on Fox/ESPN.

 

[isucy86]

Um that sounds dangerous for ISU. We could be on the outside looking in.

We could be. But it would surprise me if ISU isn't top 4-8 in the New Big12.

 

[BCClone]

The Pac12 could remove that negative for the Pac12 Network by going with a Fox, ESPN, Apple, Amazon, etc for their tier 3 rights with their next contract.

Also, I don't believe the Pac12 Network has always been the loss suffered the last couple years. The loss of games during Covid was a big driver. No games early in the season and then when they did start playing they would have put games on Fox/ESPN vs. Pac12N. Even then there were late season cancelled games that were to be on Fox/ESPN.

Before Covid PAC paid out about 3MM from the network.

 

[2speedy1]

Before Covid PAC paid out about 3MM from the network.

The Pac12 could remove that negative for the Pac12 Network by going with a Fox, ESPN, Apple, Amazon, etc for their tier 3 rights with their next contract.

Also, I don't believe the Pac12 Network has always been the loss suffered the last couple years. The loss of games during Covid was a big driver. No games early in the season and then when they did start playing they would have put games on Fox/ESPN vs. Pac12N. Even then there were late season cancelled games that were to be on Fox/ESPN.

Digging around the info I found was 2018-19 was the highest revenue year which the network cleared $33M, or $2.75M per school. The next year it went down, and was negative after. Before that it was a slow increase to 2.75 per from what I found in the articles and payouts I could find and had access to without paying.

So you are correct, but still behind the others, and their operating expenses I believe is the highest of all conferences by a wide margin. They have made poor decisions, much of which has come out over recently on partners that could have saved them, not just with regards to how they handled the pandemic.

 

[2speedy1]

We could be. But it would surprise me if ISU isn't top 4-8 in the New Big12.

We have some issues, it all just depends on who is looking, where, when, and what matters to them.

Some issues.....
We do not have a good history in football.
We are not in a recruiting hot bed.
We are not in a top media market.
We are not a top winning team/ blue blood.
We are on an Island by ourselves to everyone except the B1G.
Our academics are not exceptional.

But....
We have been decent in football in recent years and surging at right time.
We have an excellent fan base, that fills stadiums, travels, follows and watches.
We have good academics.
We have good sports outside of Football.
We are right in the middle of the US, so even up on an Island we can still attach to most.
Our media market is better than some, and would be a new market for all but the B1G.
Our viewership numbers are decent.

These are just some of the things that stand out on the surface to me.

 

[cyatheart]

Other than unequal revenue sharing. The other way for teams like Oregon & Washington to make $40M-$50M is to convince Big12 top money teams to consolidate.

If the Pac12 expects $30M /school each year and the Big12 expects $40M /school each Year, by combining the top x in each conference a consolidated Big12/Pac12 should make $45-$50M. Those kind of #'s would get the attention of Oregon, Washington, etc.

Just a matter if $5-$10M/year would influence the highest media value Big12 schools to come to the table and create a NEW conference.

So Oregon and Washington are going to take what the top 8 big 12 schools? So all those 8 schools have to pay the exit fee then. Seems highly unlikely.