Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[JHUNSY]

I just don’t see how there’s still this perception that the PAC-12 holds more leverage. The notion that because their GOR will come up for negotiation first is not an advantage in my opinion- if anything, it could be what causes their already weakened foundation to collapse.


Sure, if they could convince everyone to sign a 5-7 year GOR, great- but not if it binds schools to unequal distribution and let’s those “best option remaining” schools walk free. I also don’t think those best option schools can bluff their way through that hand- especially when the B1G is clearly not done.

 

[HFCS]

If Cal says no, Arizona is sitting right there.

We'll see about their claim that new school has to increase payout for all 16 current schools.

The only non-ND programs who could do that are already in SEC and Big Ten. Even Clemson and FSU are doubtful. FSU or Clemson might increase size of pie slices for Big Ten, not for SEC. No Pac teams would.

 

[Clonehomer]

We'll see about their claim that new school has to increase payout for all 16 current schools.

The only non-ND programs who could do that are already in SEC and Big Ten. Even Clemson and FSU are doubtful. FSU or Clemson might increase size of pie slices for Big Ten, not for SEC. No Pac teams would.

It's a lot easier to accept lesser payout now that you're talking about going from $58m to $90m instead of the $58m to $100m. So I don't see lower payouts being a reason not to expand.

 

[isucy86]

I'd have to think NBC is done. The only slot they'd have going forward would have to start at 11AM Easter/10AM Central and I can't imagine the Big 12 wants to start that early.

CBS has 15 Big Ten games, plus 4 Mountain West games on the books. They could offer a prime time slot for 8ish games if they want to have football every Saturday night, which they haven't shown they've wanted in the past.

I think the Big 12 needs to give FOX/FS1/FS2 as much as they want and sell a smaller package to ESPN with a small streaming deal with Amazon or Apple.

The Pac 12 is absolutely boned.

NBC will be interesting, they could look for an 11am CT game to proceed their 2:30p time slot for ND. But they could also show Premier League contest as ND lead in.

CBS might have windows before & after their 2:30 Big10 game. But they have always seemed hesitant to go all in for Saturday night football.

Oddly, Fox which played a big part in engineering the Big10 deal might have the most capacity with 2:30 & 6:30 spots.

It wouldn't surprise me if ABC doesn't put ACC game at 11a and then SEC the afternoon and prime time spots. Complement those games with ESPN coverage of SEC & ACC games.

I think the reality is Big12/Pac12 might get a couple OTA games. But the best chance for ESPN like access might be on a WB, USA or TBS/TNT. Then the bulk on a streaming platform like Paramount+, Amazon or Apple+.

 

[HFCS]

It's a lot easier to accept lesser payout now that you're talking about going from $58m to $90m instead of the $58m to $100m. So I don't see lower payouts being a reason not to expand.

Not sure I understand? You think Ohio State would give up 10 million/year to add Arizona?

I could see for health of the league not wanting USC/UCLA permanently isolated, but individual schools?

I could see media companies wanting more pacific and mountain time slots, but apparently it's not enough to drive up the cost so it doesn't detract per school. (unless sources were all lying)

I still think it's possible Washington and Oregon do increase the pie slices for everybody and they are just lying about that to go slow and less likely to face legal action.

 

[Clonehomer]

Not sure I understand? You think Ohio State would give up 10 million/year to add Arizona?

I could see for health of the league not wanting USC/UCLA permanently isolated, but individual schools?

I could see media companies wanting more pacific and mountain time slots, but apparently it's not enough to drive up the cost so it doesn't detract per school. (unless sources were all lying)

I still think it's possible Washington and Oregon do increase the pie slices for everybody and they are just lying about that to go slow and less likely to face legal action.

It's a lot easier to take $10m away if you haven't already budgeted that extra money in. So to add teams now to get a $30m increase instead of a $40m increase is easier to convince ADs to do.

 

[isucy86]

We'll see about their claim that new school has to increase payout for all 16 current schools.

The only non-ND programs who could do that are already in SEC and Big Ten. Even Clemson and FSU are doubtful. FSU or Clemson might increase size of pie slices for Big Ten, not for SEC. No Pac teams would.

With the BTN carriage fee model, the Big10 might value Stanford or Cal (SF), Washington (Seattle) or ASU (Phoenix).

Even if the carriage fee model changes with cord cutting, I think the Big10 sees significant value in having teams in the major Media Markets.

 

[PickSix]

The Big 10 vocally leaving the door open for expansion is exactly what the Big 12 needed.

Still plenty of windows left for our games too. Today was a massive win for our conference!

 

[scyclonekid]

I

If Cal says no, Arizona is sitting right there.

If they offer CAL they gone.

 

[JHUNSY]

 

[isucy86]

They played four ranked teams and lost by an average of 23 points. They were a bad team that beat worse teams. Nothing more. Schiano has recruited pretty well and had a nice run in the Big East. But he’s a real douche and wears thin fast, so he better start winning pretty fast.

They got better because improving from the team that didn’t even belong on the same field as Dave Beaty’s Kansas Jayhawks us as low a bar as you could have.

Plus Rutgers ceiling might be pretty low. Schools like Penn State and Wisky have always recruited the best players from NJ in recent years.

 

[scyclonekid]

More pac schools concerned not named UW, OU, CAL, Stanford. 4 corners have a life preserver called big 12 or remaining 6.

 

[scyclonekid]

Now the big 12 has to act now today.

 

[isucy86]

If Cal says no, Arizona is sitting right there.

I would be surprised if Arizona is even on the Big10's radar. Washington, Oregon, Stanford and then Utah or ASU. Big10 is all about gobbling up media markets.

 

[KnappShack]

I

If they offer CAL they gone.

Wasn't Cal totally ****** just recently? Their athletic department was drowning in debt? They would be absolutely derelict if they declined an offer.

The Rutgers of the west

 

[scyclonekid]

It’s paramount we are the 3rd conference

 

[StPaulCyclone]

What’s that last part about ESPN, would FOX possibly sell them a late game, in the future?

 

[JHUNSY]

What’s that last part about ESPN, would FOX possibly sell them a late game, in the future?

If I’m understanding correctly, B1G can expand and the new/extra inventory (presumably a late time slot) could still be on the table for ESPN to bid on- essentially meaning they could still get that “PAC-12 after dark” slot by way of the B1G instead of overpaying the whole PAC-12 to try and keep that conference together and prevent the top teams from leaving.

 

[aeroclone]

It’s paramount we are the 3rd conference

Yep. By clearly separating ourselves above and beyond the Pac now, we put ourselves in the driver's seat to pick up whatever we may want from the ACC after the P2 make their moves over there in a few years.

 

[ISU_Guy]

So the Big Ten adds CAL, Stanford, Washington, Oregon would mean they need to come up with another 300-400 million per year. It makes sense though, to take over the best teams in the west. They could sell that and give a pod of teams out west.

I think the BIG saying they are not done pretty much confirms to me they PAC12 is going to die.
6 leave for the BIG, 4 leave for the B12, OSU, WSU go to the MWC.

With revenues in the BIG approaching 100M, Why would Clemson want to stick around until 2036?
You could pay the ACC 250M-500M buyout (which is insane) and still come out way ahead than making 35M per year with the ACC. The SEC can't even offer this at this point.

I really think the BIG is going to try and put the SEC in its place by going from 14 to 22-24 teams. Just my opinion.
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USC
UCLA
Stanford
CAL
Oregon
Wash
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Clemson
UNC
Virginia
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Notre Dame
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they would pretty much own it all at that point and only leave the SEC with FSU and Miami.

Which would mean they may come looking for Okie State (maybe a Texas school) and some left over ACC scraps which will not move the needle close to the BIG.