Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[jcyclonee]

I don’t disagree, I was just pointing out what an “nfl light” model would look like. Ideally there would be 8 10 team conferences with an 8 team playoff. If that happened I think college sports would be in a great spot.

I agree that college sports would be in a great spot but Ohio State, Texas, Alabama, Michigan, USC... would never agree to it.

 

[CycloneSpinning]

You could have stopped there. Nobody could have possibly guessed where we would be 20-30 years ago to get here.

Yes, as much as any university or conference wants to believe they are elite and always will be…the truth is they are only as good as their current coach/coaches. Alabama likely will not be the same when Nick Saban leaves. They may get lucky and get another good one…or they may not and end up like Nebraska. The potential fate/risks are essentially the same for all schools. More money may increase your candidate pool…but it still doesn’t guarantee success.

 

[theshadow]

And it has happened recently at other levels as well.

Could look even closer to home, too:

 

[jcyclonee]

Projecting 20-30 years is completely a fools errand. I laugh every time someone alludes to fact Iowa needs to be worried because they’re going to be cut out when there is zero evidence to support this.

1) There’s no example in recent history, or to my knowledge ever, an example of any university getting booted from a conference. Let alone a major institution like U of I.

2) Iowa is in the top half of the B10 in brand value and will always get tremendous support from the state with no professional teams. There’s a significant list of schools that would be cut out before Iowa in the highly unlikely event that were to come into play.

3) I’m not an expert in B10 bylaws but I’m guessing there are rules that make it very difficult to expunge any university once they’re admitted.

I get it, fans of ISU don’t like the reality that Iowa is further separating itself and are looking for ways to comfort themselves by saying “Iowa, you’re next!” That’s just not at all based on reality.

There are examples of conferences dissolving or changing and schools being left out (e.g. UConn, Houston, TCU...).

If a new superconference was formed and they used the current BIG model for choosing schools (basically based upon TV subscriptions) to join the conference, Iowa might be the last school that would get chosen of the current BIG schools. Iowa would certainly be in the bottom 4.

 

[Gorm]

Could look even closer to home, too:

View attachment 102116

Not sure 110+ years ago qualifies as recent.

Hell the Big Ten kicked out Michigan AFTER re-taking Iowa.

 

[VeloClone]

Yes, as much as any university or conference wants to believe they are elite and always will be…the truth is they are only as good as their current coach/coaches. Alabama likely will not be the same when Nick Saban leaves. They may get lucky and get another good one…or they may not and end up like Nebraska. The potential fate/risks are essentially the same for all schools. More money may increase your candidate pool…but it still doesn’t guarantee success.

This is very true. Let's look at 'Bama - Bear Bryant's 6 national titles and 13 conference titles -> to squeaking out a controversial one point bowl win over a mediocre Iowa State team -> to perennial top 5 usually #1.

 

[CascadeClone]

Projecting 20-30 years is completely a fools errand. I laugh every time someone alludes to fact Iowa needs to be worried because they’re going to be cut out when there is zero evidence to support this.

1) There’s no example in recent history, or to my knowledge ever, an example of any university getting booted from a conference. Let alone a major institution like U of I.

2) Iowa is in the top half of the B10 in brand value and will always get tremendous support from the state with no professional teams. There’s a significant list of schools that would be cut out before Iowa in the highly unlikely event that were to come into play.

3) I’m not an expert in B10 bylaws but I’m guessing there are rules that make it very difficult to expunge any university once they’re admitted.

I get it, fans of ISU don’t like the reality that Iowa is further separating itself and are looking for ways to comfort themselves by saying “Iowa, you’re next!” That’s just not at all based on reality.

You have it backwards. It's not about getting booted. It's about Fox/ESPN wanting a "superleague". The mega brands "rapture" out in football only to create a 30ish team nationwide league.

The B1G still exists, just without PSU, Mich, OSU, etc. Would Iowa make the cut? Maybe, maybe not.

Just keep in mind, there was zero evidence of USCLA or OuT happening either. It's not impossible at all to think the real drivers of the bus - TV - might want to consolidate the best teams into a single league in order to get maximum value. Honestly, it's a logical progression based on the driving forces, though that doesn't guarantee it will happen. Stay tuned.

 

[theshadow]

There’s no example in recent history, or to my knowledge ever, an example of any university getting booted from a conference. Let alone a major institution like U of I.

Not sure 110+ years ago qualifies as recent.

Just showing the resident buzzard that (1) it HAS happened and (2) that it happened to SUI.

 

[BryceC]

Yes, as much as any university or conference wants to believe they are elite and always will be…the truth is they are only as good as their current coach/coaches. Alabama likely will not be the same when Nick Saban leaves. They may get lucky and get another good one…or they may not and end up like Nebraska. The potential fate/risks are essentially the same for all schools. More money may increase your candidate pool…but it still doesn’t guarantee success.

That is true. Internet Hawk fans love turning up their noses at ISU and our precarious position. But they've had 40+ years of two good coaches, preceded by 20 years of terrible football. Some of them act like good football is some kind of birthright at Iowa, but that's not the case. Texas, Alabama, even OU had a dip in the 90s. Nebraska has gone 5 years without a bowl game. They aren't immune to that by any measure.

 

[Gonzo]

Just showing the resident buzzard that (1) it HAS happened and (2) that it happened to SUI.

Iowa was readmitted to the Big Ten one month after being booted.

 

[aeroclone]

You have it backwards. It's not about getting booted. It's about Fox/ESPN wanting a "superleague". The mega brands "rapture" out in football only to create a 30ish team nationwide league.

The B1G still exists, just without PSU, Mich, OSU, etc. Would Iowa make the cut? Maybe, maybe not.

Just keep in mind, there was zero evidence of USCLA or OuT happening either. It's not impossible at all to think the real drivers of the bus - TV - might want to consolidate the best teams into a single league in order to get maximum value. Honestly, it's a logical progression based on the driving forces, though that doesn't guarantee it will happen. Stay tuned.

Exactly. It will be very similar to what we are looking at with the Pac today
WSU and Oregon State aren't getting kicked out of the league, they are getting left behind.

One day down the road Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, and Georgia announce they are leaving the B1G and SEC to form a new league outside the NCAA. Then they start sending invites or reviewing applications. They take who they want and leave who they don't. In this case Iowa isn't technically kicked out, but the end result is the same if they don't get an invite to the new league. The remaining B1G is a shadow of its former self.

 

[Al_4_State]

That is true. Internet Hawk fans love turning up their noses at ISU and our precarious position. But they've had 40+ years of two good coaches, preceded by 20 years of terrible football. Some of them act like good football is some kind of birthright at Iowa, but that's not the case. Texas, Alabama, even OU had a dip in the 90s. Nebraska has gone 5 years without a bowl game. They aren't immune to that by any measure.

Literally every school in the country is a bad hire away from being under .500

 

[Klubber]

The Big 10 and SEC are already at another level with their money and media. That isn’t rolling back.

There will be further movement, but we’re just vying for the 3rd place (and really second tier) conference at this point. Anything else is a pipe dream people tell themselves.

Personally, I’m fine with being the 3rd conference as I think we fit better financially and competitively with those peers.

We're not vying for "2nd tier" as you say. That's ridiculous. The Big XII can and will still thrive as a conference with highly ranked teams and playoff appearances.

Do you honestly believe Yormark's and the Big XII AD's strategy going forward is to make the Big XII a 2nd tier conference, a glorified MWC maybe?

The B1G has been making more TV money for quite some time and has that resulted in the conference dominating on the football field? Hardly, LOL.

The doom and gloom on here where the B1G and SEC are going to take over and form their own playoff, and monopolize the airwaves and exclude everyone else is getting really stale.

None of that is going to happen, so everyone needs to relax a little I think...

 

[Cyclonepride]

Colorado has real upside. They are located near a large and growing metropolitan area and they were a very good brand in the Big 8 and early Big 12.

I think a decision on CU has to weigh how much of their declining value is due to their decision to jump for the PAC 12. That has to have something to do with it.

 

[timinatoria]

I see what you are saying. I didnt look at the post that close to notice that.

Does that mean Iowa State gets to claim the entire state of Iowa when it comes to Media Markets? Even Iowa City and CR? I don't know that I have ever seen any article that has not divided the state up and only given us the DM Metro.

It looks to me like he is giving the entire states to each of these teams regardless of where they are located? I dont see any other way Wash and Wazzu and UO and OSU would have the exact same numbers otherwise.

If you went that route one would have to think Iowa State would also get to claim a significant chunk of KC considering the number of ISU fans there. But no one would ever give that to us, just like I dont think any media people give us CR either.

I saw this a while back. This shows fan base 'market share' by TV markets.

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/harry6790/viz/CFBMetros/CFB

 

[BryceC]

We're not vying for "2nd tier" as you say. That's ridiculous. The Big XII can and will still thrive as a conference with highly ranked teams and playoff appearances.

Do you honestly believe Yormark's and the Big XII AD's strategy going forward is to make the Big XII a 2nd tier conference, a glorified MWC maybe?

The B1G has been making more TV money for quite some time and has that resulted in the conference dominating on the football field? Hardly, LOL.

The doom and gloom on here where the B1G and SEC are going to take over and form their own playoff, and monopolize the airwaves and exclude everyone else is getting really stale.

None of that is going to happen, so everyone needs to relax a little I think...

From a money and prestige level the Big 12 will be 2nd tier. That second tier is still very good, but it's Big 10/SEC, then ACC/Big 12. Then everybody else way, way down the line.

As far as the Big 10 and SEC making their own playoff, I don't think that will happen. If there is a 12 team playoff for example though, I could see 8 of the teams coming from those two conferences which is de facto the same thing.

As far as them dominating the airwaves, that's already going to be happening with this TV deal already signed. I mean I don't know what you're trying to prove here. The Big 12 can still be a very good conference. We'll still be very lucky to be a part of it. But we don't need to make it something it's not, either.

 

[jcyclonee]

We're not vying for "2nd tier" as you say. That's ridiculous. The Big XII can and will still thrive as a conference with highly ranked teams and playoff appearances.

​

Do you honestly believe Yormark's and the Big XII AD's strategy going forward is to make the Big XII a 2nd tier conference, a glorified MWC maybe?

​

The B1G has been making more TV money for quite some time and has that resulted in the conference dominating on the football field? Hardly, LOL.

The doom and gloom on here where the B1G and SEC are going to take over and form their own playoff, and monopolize the airwaves and exclude everyone else is getting really stale.

None of that is going to happen, so everyone needs to relax a little I think...

The trouble is that the discrepancy in media rights is about to become huge. Instead of a 30-40% difference, it's going to be about a 100% difference.

 

[trajanJ]

We're not vying for "2nd tier" as you say. That's ridiculous. The Big XII can and will still thrive as a conference with highly ranked teams and playoff appearances.

Do you honestly believe Yormark's and the Big XII AD's strategy going forward is to make the Big XII a 2nd tier conference, a glorified MWC maybe?

The B1G has been making more TV money for quite some time and has that resulted in the conference dominating on the football field? Hardly, LOL.

The doom and gloom on here where the B1G and SEC are going to take over and form their own playoff, and monopolize the airwaves and exclude everyone else is getting really stale.

None of that is going to happen, so everyone needs to relax a little I think...

The Big 12 will be 2nd tier as a conference. Before we were financially just a little behind but most likely in the very near future we will be quite a bit behind 2 conferences. That will currently give 30 schools a huge advantage. Then add in NIL and the transfer rule and we could be looking at a completely different playbook within 5 years.

 

[AlaCyclone]

The trouble is that the discrepancy in media rights is about to become huge. Instead of a 30-40% difference, it's going to be about a 100% difference.

The networks are overpaying the B1G and ultimately the SEC and will have a glut of crappy games too. The supply and demand will ultimately shake back out. Not really worried about it, as long as the Big Xii survivies with Iowa State in it. Then, even if that doesn't happen, I'm still going to be an ISU fan and go to Cyclone games. "Damn the torpedoes!"

 

[HFCS]

And it has happened recently at other levels as well. St. Thomas kicked out of the conference they helped found in 1920 because they were dominating pretty much all of the sports. In the league's defense the Tommies have over twice as many students as the next largest schools in the league so it isn't a great fit anymore.

St. Thomas (MN) Kicked Out Of Conference - Collegiate Baseball Newspaper

baseballnews.com

University of St Thomas kicked out of conference for winning too much

The Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference has decided to oust the University of St Thomas for competitive purposes

www.theguardian.com

Idaho is a formerly FBS school that was basically relegated out of FBS completely. I think they tried sun belt and independent for a year or two, then down to FCS.

MWC reformed as WAC crumbled and realized they only subtracted $ with Boise St on board.

If Big Ten/SEC ever reform they aren't going to bend over backwards to make sure they get Ole Miss and Mississippi State.