Are kids being forced to play ball at UCLA? If they don't want the travel and global environmental destruction then they can suit up for a different squad
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
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Are kids being forced to play ball at UCLA? If they don't want the travel and global environmental destruction then they can suit up for a different squad
Why would an ACC school need to come with ND? also how is their media value more then the big ten schools?
I bunked with Brian Ferentz in section 8 housing... he was on top.
Which makes the CA Regents' thinking so nonsensical. Instead of one of our flagship state universities making loads of new revenue, let's make sure neither of them make loads of new revenue and let both sink. Lol.
I'm still honestly surprised that the offer didn't include Cal & UDub or Udub & Oregon. Washington absolutely checks every B1G box. Probably just a matter of time now...
The Iowa game was a while ago...how long do you have to do this?
I bunked with Brian Ferentz in section 8 housing... he was on top.
I think end of Sept.
I'd think the B10 ranking of remaining PAC schools would likely be:
- Washington
- Stanford
- Cal (but only if not Stanford)
- Arizona
- Arizona St (but only if not Arizona)
- Oregon
- Utah (but they're probably not taking more than 2 PAC schools)
I'm kind of surprised UCLA was picked ahead of them since they already duplicate USC in a lot of areas. USC must have wanted a local travel partner. After all, Seattle is only about 300 miles closer to LA than Lincoln.
It would keep an even # of teams in Big10. Sure the Big10 could go with a uneven # of teams from Pac12, but having travel partners would seem to be most efficient way to control travel costs. But having 3 or 5 could work and just incorporate a "bye" date into schedule.
If we are really moving toward 2-3 power conferences, bringing an ACC team with ND would make sense. Notre Dame's standalone media rights value is right up there with Ohio State, Michigan & Penn State. If I had to guess, ND's media rights value in 2024 dollars is at least $125M/year. Grab an elite ACC team who's media value is close to the Big10 payout of $75M. The Big10 could pay the ACC school's GOR penalties out of Notre Dame's premium value.
That could prompt the SEC to pursue ACC teams to keep pace with Big10 and could spell the end of the ACC. If ACC teams can make more than the $35-$40M/year they make today by joining the Big10, SEC or BigPac20+, why wouldn't they?
You mean it wasnt for the entire year? What kind of a bet was that? These usually are year long punishments. LOL.
If there were a way out of the ACC GOR, someone would have found it, I think. The way the GOR is written, the conference owns the individual schools' media rights. Right now, the value of their media rights is whatever the ACC payout is. But if they jump to the B10/SEC, the value of their media rights would become whatever the B10/SEC payout is. The left behind schools would have no reason to negotiate, and the schools that want to leave would have no leverage.
ND's a little different, since the ACC holds their non-football sports. It's at least somewhat plausible that the increase in revenue would be enough to cover losing the portion attributed to basketball and other sports. If their new NBC deal is in the $75m/year neighborhood, they're probably better off where they are currently. Additionally, they are obligated to join the ACC if they join any conference in football, which would be an additional expense to get out of.
You think ND's media dollars are worth 125mil!?! in what world? They are getting paid 20 mil right now. Rumors are they are going to get close to 60mil. Their ratings have fallen off by close to 50% the last couple of years and this year might be just as bad or worse. Also no ACC school is leaving for another decade.
That’s horrible logic.
It won’t be a way out, as much a way around. A settlement that all schools agree to. It’s been only a few months to get that worked out. A solution will be found well before 2036. Likely before 2026
If their TV rights aren't worth more than 100MM then why would the big ten want them. It's said USC was 150MM. If they are that, then ND is also.
ND. Only puts up5- 7 football games. The rest the ACC or the opponent gets I believe. So that 60MM is 10 MM per game . Get 11 of their games (9 conference games and 2 home non cons) and that is 110. Now throw in some for basketball, hockey and the other sports and you could easily get 125MM.
The ND at $20M is an old agreement where every one has said ND took far less than market.
The current figure I have seen for ND's upcoming 2026 contract is $75M from NBC. That only includes part of ND's schedule. ND also gets money from ACC and home & home payouts. The Ohio State game at OSU would be additional money outside ACC or NBC.
How is ND not worth the same as Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Texas, etc? And all those schools are worth $125M+. When Texas & OU left the Big12- their combined valuation was speculated between $200-$250M annually.
Take the Big10. If in 2024 dollars the average per school payout will be $75M, schools like Rutgers, Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana & Maryland all have media valuations in the $30-$35M range. You can't convince me they are worth more than the current ACC & Pac12 payouts per school. So if those six schools detract around $40M annually per school ($75M-$35M), then the elite Big10 schools are all worth at least $40M more than the $75M payout. I say at least, because Minnesota, Iowa, Wisky, Neb and Michigan State are all only worth somewhere between the $35M and around $80M.
You could be right on the ACC. We haven't seen a GOR broken yet, despite all the talk of Texas & OU leaving the Big12 early. But I would be surprised if Florida State, Clemson & Miami are going to give in and accept earning around $40M from their ACC media rights when SEC & Big10 schools will make $75-$100M annually over the next 7 years.
The GOR Agreements have a penalty and force schools to give up their media rights in their new conference. What if:
- Virginia pays the early exit penalty. Precedent is there as MD paid an exit fee a decade ago.
- The Big10 agrees to pay Virginia a reduced media payout of $30M for the entire length of the new Big10 contract. That $30M is then paid to the ACC.
- The Big10 then structures additional "Appearance Fee" payments of $45M annually to Virginia. Or classify the $45M as "Academic Bonuses" if UVA teams are above APR averages.
That could be enough to destabilize the ACC and open the gate for other elite ACC teams to jump to SEC & Big10. After that, as long as the BigPacACC payouts are over $40M annually/school in 2025 dollars- why wouldn't schools like Pitt, Louisville, Va Tech, Syracuse, etc. be willing to jump to the BigPacACC?
I am a firm believer that Big12, Pac12 & ACC schools that aren't targets of the Big10 or SEC have more value as a super conference than 3 different conferences. I think a CBS or NBC along with a Amazon/Apple platform would find great value in televising college sports for teams with alumni bases nationwide.
I bunked with Brian Ferentz in section 8 housing... he was on top.
What's the penalty attached to the whole "if ND joins a conference in football it must be the ACC" thing? I know that's part of the deal, but the ACC isn't going to get their football media rights, I can't imagine ND signed those away as part of that agreement. Maybe I'm wrong? The media value of ND's non-football sports is a relative pittance, so paying the ACC off for those wouldn't cost much. If anyone knows what the penalty would be for ND joining a different conference in football other than the ACC, I'd be curious.
You mention of OuT being 200-250 MM made me go in reverse. Everyone wanted to take that valuation from the current money, when in reality that is what they are estimated as current and going forward. You have to believe that we would be at 60MM if they had stayed. That is 600MM per year. Now subtract 225MM (middle ground) from that and we have 375 for 8 teams or just short of 47MM per team. We added 4 teams to give more inventory and they should not pull us down. So say we average 47MM over 6 years of a contract. Using a 3% inflater and placing 47 in the middle of the 6 years. That means the first year would be around that 44MM per year. Which would be about what we expect next year for payment. So we are taking about a 3-4 drop one year and then keep increasing afterwards.
Now change the playoffs and we should consistently get one in and that probably moves us so there is no drop and our contract would be considered be about a 53-55MM average area.
The Playoffs are the wild card. If the Playoffs generate $2B annually - that's over $300M for each P5 conference & all of G5.
I think most people view the 12 team CFB Playoff is set in stone And maybe so. But it would not surprise me if there are 2 big areas that we could see negotiated by the Confernece Commissioners.
- With a 12 team playoff, the top 6 rated conference champs will get an auto bid. I could still see the SEC or Big10 maybe push for the top 5 rated conference champs or stipulate that Conference Champ auto qualifiers must be ranked in top 15.
- Currently all P5 conferences get equal share of CFB Playoff base payments and then G5 in entirety gets a payout about the same as each P5 conference. I have seen conjecture that Big10 & SEC could push for double shares.
