Perspective and Reality Check

[Clone95]

Doesn’t really matter if you keep every game close but loose 15 of the past 20 one score games.

Can we stop saying we're 5-15 in one score games? It's 5-15 in games where the spread is less than 3.5.

Campbell is actually pretty close to .500 in one score games since 2017.

 

[VeloClone]

Good write up. Before the season we heard comments like how great the team speed was. Dekkers was the real thing and a one and done. The coaches were going to adapt the offense to the players abilities. I see none of it on the field.

If you listened to the crazy posters who were saying Dekkers would go to the NFL after this year, that is on you.

 

[cyfan92]

We need to drop the whole this team is young and making mistakes...

This program made the same mistakes in 2021 as they are making in 2022, despite an ELITE roster (ISU standards).

 

[Stormin]

Are U saying that CMC is a BAD COACH?

He thought Prohm was a good coach. LOL

 

[CYEATHAWK]

He thought Prohm was a good coach. LOL

Why do you keep bringing this up.

Erik like me and many others thought the 3 good years (23/24/23 wins, 2 conference tourney titles, 1 sweet 16) under Prohm were good years. Not great......good. And so did you via your happiness when JP extended his contract. Do I need to dig up those posts again?

So please save everyone the BS and give it a rest.

 

[CycloneErik]

He thought Prohm was a good coach. LOL

You'll need some links for that, champ.

 

[t-noah]

It's been a long time since I've done a long-form article so thought I'd take the time...

I think I've said on here after every basketball or football game for 15 years that people always overreact to a win or a loss. Hybe builds exponentially when we look good in a game, and the doom and gloom breaks out when we struggle for a game - let alone a stretch of them. Likewise, people listen to all the offseason hype - building expectations that aren't usually founded in the reality of what our team looks like at each position. The reality is always somewhere in the middle.

Perspective:

A lot of fans are rightfully frustrated over the past several weeks. While emotions are natural, the program is still in a better place than it's ever been...

• We have our best coach in history.
• Our longest stretch of success.
• Are largely well respected throughout the country.
• Recruiting continues to trend in the right direction.
• Defense is playing as well as it ever has.
• Just graduated the best players we've arguably ever had at QB, WR, and TE.
• Are getting players into the NFL at a good clip.
• Have a few strong studs currently committed.

With that said, there are also some areas of concern...

• While better, our recruiting still ranks at the bottom of the Big 12.
• Our league is tougher than ever with even Kansas improving.
• We have a ton of youth throughout the two-deeps on both sides of the ball.
• Our o-line hasn't improved at all over the past number of years.
• Multi-year struggles inside the opponent's 30.
• Inconsistency in the special teams unit.
• There is a national narrative that maybe CMC has hit his ceiling in Ames.
• 80% of our passing runs through one receiver.

Reality Check:

This all leads to a little bit of a reality check...

Recruiting:

Iowa State is still a developmental and fundamentals program. We will never be above average in recruiting or ranked above 1/3rd to 1/2 of our league given various reasons. If we don't play fundamental football and develop our 2 and 3 star players into consistent winners, we're going to struggle. Fundamentals have been lacking in various ways and really need to be a focus. For all the talk of winning in the margins, we need to double down on the small things. We've lost more games on a lack of fundamentals and mistakes than anything over the past 5-7 years.

With that said, we do need another increase in recruiting as we have a lot of gaps that just don't have an established pipeline or team parity. A good example is o-line; our recruiting continues to struggle and despite a string of good QB and RB recruits/commits, they're never going to reach their potential without protection and blocking. We will struggle in the red zone when defenses lock down because we can't dictate anything.

Unfortunately, I do think we have less dynamic, speed-oriented talent at several positions. This is sometimes confused with schematic issues and play-calling because the players can't do what the plays need. Example - while there is talent at RB, each of the players have a unique style but all require fairly decent holes. Brock isn't the type of back Montgomery or Hall were where they could make something out of nothing. Sanders isn't strong enough to go inside. Silas is a wrecking ball but needs a bit of a head start. Brock is the only one in the 4-deep that looks like an every-down back, and even he will struggle because of other positions.

Schematics:

Defense is playing lights out, even with a lot of youth. Enough said.

Offense continues to struggle in the same places year-over-year. I don't know the root cause, but this needs to be the biggest focus area immediately and long-term. One could make a great case for schematics, and even the announcers the past 2 weeks have expressed bewilderment at many of the routes and play calling. While we've clearly had our best offense over the past 5 years, we've also had elite and dynamic talent at key positions that could mask any issues. Without that, our play calling doesn't appear to be sufficient. Running 3-yard routes on 3rd or 4th and long is becoming a national joke and identity. Running inside 3 straight plays for no gain isn't going to get it done. Those worked when we had dynamic players with great yards after contact/catch, but it hasn't adapted to current personnel.

Offensive rankings after 6 games;

• 110th for yards per play
• 114th for yards per point
• 123rd for yards per completion
• 190th for scoring offense
• 38th for plays per game
• 116th for rushing offense
• 115th for yards per run at 3.0 (down from 5.4 last year)
• 105th for rushing attempts per game.

Now, when you look at talent, experience, and schematics, I think they create a perfect storm for what we're seeing. While people will use anything to justify their opinions or agenda, I don't think there is any one thing that is at fault, but rather a whole lot of things. We're young, we're predictable, we're not tough up front, and we lack speed. The play book gets pretty small when those things converge. Unfortunately, I don't think that is a quick fix either. It's not all doom and gloom, but there are some rough patches ahead.

So where do we go? I think we need to buckle in for a rough remainder of the year. I said in the offseason I thought this looked like a rebuilding year with 6-7 wins and we're probably looking at 5 or 6 wins realistically unless something big happens. What I want to see though is a change in schematics, a focus on fundamentals, and an urgency to improve. We need to find an identity and double down. I want to see coaches speak more about the issues instead of deflecting. If we don't, a lot can be undone in one season.

Some of the talent committed will fit nicely with older versions of the current roster. Coaching can improve and new ideas can be mixed in. We have a solid defense to build around and some good young players throughout.

We need to show our 5-star culture if we're going to be ready to compete in the new Big 12 and keep recruiting on an upward trajectory.

Go Cyclones!

Well written and thought out! Thank you Jeremy.

I agree with much, if not all of your post. So I won't repeat too much.

Two things stood out otherwise: 1) We probably wouldn't be anywhere close to 38th in plays per game w/o our defense. Being a respectable 38th here makes the other offensive stats even more alarming. 2) "I want to see coaches speak more about the issues instead of deflecting", also.

 

[Big Daddy Kang]

It's been a long time since I've done a long-form article so thought I'd take the time...

I think I've said on here after every basketball or football game for 15 years that people always overreact to a win or a loss. Hybe builds exponentially when we look good in a game, and the doom and gloom breaks out when we struggle for a game - let alone a stretch of them. Likewise, people listen to all the offseason hype - building expectations that aren't usually founded in the reality of what our team looks like at each position. The reality is always somewhere in the middle.

Perspective:

A lot of fans are rightfully frustrated over the past several weeks. While emotions are natural, the program is still in a better place than it's ever been...

• We have our best coach in history.
• Our longest stretch of success.
• Are largely well respected throughout the country.
• Recruiting continues to trend in the right direction.
• Defense is playing as well as it ever has.
• Just graduated the best players we've arguably ever had at QB, WR, and TE.
• Are getting players into the NFL at a good clip.
• Have a few strong studs currently committed.

With that said, there are also some areas of concern...

• While better, our recruiting still ranks at the bottom of the Big 12.
• Our league is tougher than ever with even Kansas improving.
• We have a ton of youth throughout the two-deeps on both sides of the ball.
• Our o-line hasn't improved at all over the past number of years.
• Multi-year struggles inside the opponent's 30.
• Inconsistency in the special teams unit.
• There is a national narrative that maybe CMC has hit his ceiling in Ames.
• 80% of our passing runs through one receiver.

Reality Check:

This all leads to a little bit of a reality check...

Recruiting:

Iowa State is still a developmental and fundamentals program. We will never be above average in recruiting or ranked above 1/3rd to 1/2 of our league given various reasons. If we don't play fundamental football and develop our 2 and 3 star players into consistent winners, we're going to struggle. Fundamentals have been lacking in various ways and really need to be a focus. For all the talk of winning in the margins, we need to double down on the small things. We've lost more games on a lack of fundamentals and mistakes than anything over the past 5-7 years.

With that said, we do need another increase in recruiting as we have a lot of gaps that just don't have an established pipeline or team parity. A good example is o-line; our recruiting continues to struggle and despite a string of good QB and RB recruits/commits, they're never going to reach their potential without protection and blocking. We will struggle in the red zone when defenses lock down because we can't dictate anything.

Unfortunately, I do think we have less dynamic, speed-oriented talent at several positions. This is sometimes confused with schematic issues and play-calling because the players can't do what the plays need. Example - while there is talent at RB, each of the players have a unique style but all require fairly decent holes. Brock isn't the type of back Montgomery or Hall were where they could make something out of nothing. Sanders isn't strong enough to go inside. Silas is a wrecking ball but needs a bit of a head start. Brock is the only one in the 4-deep that looks like an every-down back, and even he will struggle because of other positions.

Schematics:

Defense is playing lights out, even with a lot of youth. Enough said.

Offense continues to struggle in the same places year-over-year. I don't know the root cause, but this needs to be the biggest focus area immediately and long-term. One could make a great case for schematics, and even the announcers the past 2 weeks have expressed bewilderment at many of the routes and play calling. While we've clearly had our best offense over the past 5 years, we've also had elite and dynamic talent at key positions that could mask any issues. Without that, our play calling doesn't appear to be sufficient. Running 3-yard routes on 3rd or 4th and long is becoming a national joke and identity. Running inside 3 straight plays for no gain isn't going to get it done. Those worked when we had dynamic players with great yards after contact/catch, but it hasn't adapted to current personnel.

Offensive rankings after 6 games;

• 110th for yards per play
• 114th for yards per point
• 123rd for yards per completion
• 190th for scoring offense
• 38th for plays per game
• 116th for rushing offense
• 115th for yards per run at 3.0 (down from 5.4 last year)
• 105th for rushing attempts per game.

Now, when you look at talent, experience, and schematics, I think they create a perfect storm for what we're seeing. While people will use anything to justify their opinions or agenda, I don't think there is any one thing that is at fault, but rather a whole lot of things. We're young, we're predictable, we're not tough up front, and we lack speed. The play book gets pretty small when those things converge. Unfortunately, I don't think that is a quick fix either. It's not all doom and gloom, but there are some rough patches ahead.

So where do we go? I think we need to buckle in for a rough remainder of the year. I said in the offseason I thought this looked like a rebuilding year with 6-7 wins and we're probably looking at 5 or 6 wins realistically unless something big happens. What I want to see though is a change in schematics, a focus on fundamentals, and an urgency to improve. We need to find an identity and double down. I want to see coaches speak more about the issues instead of deflecting. If we don't, a lot can be undone in one season.

Some of the talent committed will fit nicely with older versions of the current roster. Coaching can improve and new ideas can be mixed in. We have a solid defense to build around and some good young players throughout.

We need to show our 5-star culture if we're going to be ready to compete in the new Big 12 and keep recruiting on an upward trajectory.

Go Cyclones!

OK, Dad.

 

[t-noah]

Agree. Deckers is quite talented and like all young QB’s, has obvious strengths and weaknesses. The play calling does nothing to steer away from his weaknesses and rarely schemes up designs for his strengths.

Hunter Deckers is absolutely not the offense’s issue right now. Deckers is clearly frustrated with the coaching, as he should be.

PS. Hunter absolutely demonstrated yesterday and every game this year that he can put beautifully perfect touch on the ball. This notion that he “guns” everything is ridiculous.

Agree. And whether or not it is true, there is some perception with ISU fans that the QB's at ISU do not grow and improve maybe as they should, during their time here. Campbell's QB's are probably no different.

So far, I kind of have that impression, right off the bat, with Dekkers. He seems to be regressing already. Are we playing to his strengths, slowing the game down, keeping things simple enough for him, allowing him to use his arm talent? Especially with the better teams of the Big 12? What I'm seeing is 'No', not in the last 2-3 games. He is not being allowed to take the needed shots downfield. Defenses are again crowding the box. We saw this last year as well.

B. Purdy did a great job at ISU. Could he even have been better if allowed to play a bit more to his strengths as well? More designed runs, RPO's?

Perception is reality in the service industry. Is it a correct reality here with this football team and coaching staff?

 

[CyBobby]

Agree. And whether or not it is true, there is some perception with ISU fans that the QB's at ISU do not grow and improve maybe as they should, during their time here. Campbell's QB's are probably no different.

So far, I kind of have that impression, right off the bat, with Dekkers. He seems to be regressing already. Are we playing to his strengths, slowing the game down, keeping things simple enough for him, allowing him to use his arm talent? Especially with the better teams of the Big 12? What I'm seeing is 'No', not in the last 2-3 games. He is not being allowed to take the needed shots downfield. Defenses are again crowding the box. We saw this last year as well.

B. Purdy did a great job at ISU. Could he even have been better if allowed to play a bit more to his strengths as well? More designed runs, RPO's?

Perception is reality in the service industry. Is it a correct reality here with this football team and coaching staff?

PERCEPTION IS ALWAYS REALITY...my friend

 

[stewart092284]

Can we stop saying we're 5-15 in one score games? It's 5-15 in games where the spread is less than 3.5.

Campbell is actually pretty close to .500 in one score games since 2017.

So essentially we're 5-15 in games Vegas expects to be close or we might be favored in. That sounds so much better than saying 5-15 in one score games. Essentially its all schematics and trying to put a dress on a pig.

1-3 so far
2-5 (2021)
4-2 (2020)
2 -4 (2019)
3-2 (2018)
3-4 (2017)
1-4 (2016)


Three of the last 4 years we've lost more one score games than we won.
Overall CMC is 16 and 24 in one score games. Not terrible but we're 3-8 in our last 11. Coming into last year we were 13-16 and close to .500.

For some reason both last year with a heavily experienced roster and now this year with a less experienced roster so there doesn't seem to be a common theme there - we are no longer doing the things needed to win close games.

 

[Jer]

So essentially we're 5-15 in games Vegas expects to be close or we might be favored in. That sounds so much better than saying 5-15 in one score games. Essentially its all schematics and trying to put a dress on a pig.

1-3 so far
2-5 (2021)
4-2 (2020)
2 -4 (2019)
3-2 (2018)
3-4 (2017)
1-4 (2016)


Three of the last 4 years we've lost more one score games than we won.
Overall CMC is 16 and 24 in one score games. Not terrible but we're 3-8 in our last 11. Coming into last year we were 13-16 and close to .500.

For some reason both last year with a heavily experienced roster and now this year with a less experienced roster so there doesn't seem to be a common theme there - we are no longer doing the things needed to win close games.

We're 1-7 in our last 8 one-score games. Either way, the sports metrics-based analytics models have gotten damn good. If we're expected to be within 1-3 pts of a team and constantly lose those, that doesn't bode well.

Again, I don't think that should be a focal point with everything else going on, just pointing out the discrepancy.

 

[stewart092284]

Agreed. Saying we lost games the computers say are close means we're losing games they thought we could win. Obviously we're never going to be winning ALL of them but for a team and program that is going to need to win a decent amount of those games to make bowl games and occasionally have special seasons - its concerning.

 

[BryceC]

Why do you keep bringing this up.

You know why.

 

[isufanz1]

So essentially we're 5-15 in games Vegas expects to be close or we might be favored in. That sounds so much better than saying 5-15 in one score games. Essentially its all schematics and trying to put a dress on a pig.

1-3 so far
2-5 (2021)
4-2 (2020)
2 -4 (2019)
3-2 (2018)
3-4 (2017)
1-4 (2016)


Three of the last 4 years we've lost more one score games than we won.
Overall CMC is 16 and 24 in one score games. Not terrible but we're 3-8 in our last 11. Coming into last year we were 13-16 and close to .500.

For some reason both last year with a heavily experienced roster and now this year with a less experienced roster so there doesn't seem to be a common theme there - we are no longer doing the things needed to win close games.

And it seems like the two groups of fans having the disucssion either focus on the first 3 yrs or the last 4 yrs. I tend to use this stat to determine the quality of the coaching staff. Under normal circumstances one would expect to win about 50% of these games (average staff). Winning any more than that and I view the staff as being above average, winning less than 50% and you start to fall into the below average category. ISU staff was trending above average at first, but is unfortunately moving in the wrong direction now and on the wrong side of the stat.

 

[Clone95]

I think, before this season, our start to games had more to do with this stat than the end of games. If we got off to a good start, we'd blow out the opponent, but when the other team was good enough to score early, when we played our vanilla D, we would start out in a hole and fight back and always be in it at the end. Purdy and Co. were great at always being in position to get the win, just 2021 they fell short more often than not. WVU is the only loss we weren't down 2 scores at some point.

 

[NoCreativity]

So essentially we're 5-15 in games Vegas expects to be close or we might be favored in. That sounds so much better than saying 5-15 in one score games. Essentially its all schematics and trying to put a dress on a pig.

1-3 so far
2-5 (2021)
4-2 (2020)
2 -4 (2019)
3-2 (2018)
3-4 (2017)
1-4 (2016)


Three of the last 4 years we've lost more one score games than we won.
Overall CMC is 16 and 24 in one score games. Not terrible but we're 3-8 in our last 11. Coming into last year we were 13-16 and close to .500.

For some reason both last year with a heavily experienced roster and now this year with a less experienced roster so there doesn't seem to be a common theme there - we are no longer doing the things needed to win close games.

Seems like the whole "winning in the margins" thing is a farce. CMC might want to come up with a new slogan.

 

[joefrog]

I think, before this season, our start to games had more to do with this stat than the end of games. If we got off to a good start, we'd blow out the opponent, but when the other team was good enough to score early, when we played our vanilla D, we would start out in a hole and fight back and always be in it at the end. Purdy and Co. were great at always being in position to get the win, just 2021 they fell short more often than not. WVU is the only loss we weren't down 2 scores at some point.

And that has always been my problem, why put yourself in that hole? Texas Tech last year was maybe the worst coaching I have seen out of this staff. A new QB getting his first start? My word, you rattle him. Hard. You put all the pressure on him. We didn't. We lost, in perfect ISU fashion: a record FG attempt at the horn.

I don't expect perfection, but do expect adjustments. We aren't seeing those, and so I fully expect the beatings to continue, and the excuses to flow.

 

[NoCreativity]

If you back to the last big win against Oklahoma State last October, ISU is now 3-7 in its last 10 games against Power 5 opponents.

 

[mgordon]

Dekkers has the arm, but he also has bad accuracy as he tends to throw behind his guys or at their feet. Even when Dekkers has had time (which is rare), he doesn’t make very accurate throws. JJ Kohl might end up as our starter at some point next year if Dekkers can’t improve his accuracy and instinct.

I disagree. For the most part, Dekkers has had adequate protection. Kansas he was the most harassed but later in the second half his protection was adequate. Some of his sacks are not seeing the blitz and getting rid of the ball, or holding onto the ball too long when he could pull down and take off.