ESPN, Fox Open Discussions for Next Big 12 Deal

[Gonzo]

This exactly. There is no one in the ACC worth remotely close what Texas was to the SEC. If they can't find the cash, no one in the ACC has a prayer.

The league will have to have enough teams with better landing spots in mind to dissolve the conference. That's probably not happening. I think they are stuck for at least close to the entire GoR.

It'll be interesting to see at what point the buyout becomes worth it to B1G/SEC/ESPN/FOX. Can't imagine it'll be for a while, but I could see at some point before the GoR is up them saying ok, it's no longer going to cost us hundreds of millions of dollars to bring out Clemson/FSU/UNC/Miami/etc., but instead only around $75 mill? We can deal with that.

 

[AuH2O]

ESPN owns the ACC Network so maybe technically the $$ paid to schools from the ACCN on top of the $17 mill from ESPN also count as coming from ESPN as part of its overall deal? Who knows.

Could be. Either way, I don't think that "per team payout" threshold means much as it relates to the PAC without knowing who else might also be getting rights.

I'm not sure if the PAC is actually confident or just posturing. I don't know how they can possibly imagine that ESPN is going to offer them as much as they reportedly did before now that ESPN has filled out a ton of content with the Big 12.

It would be a gutsy move to go in on a media deal that excludes ESPN, since apparently Fox is out. Now that ESPN has a lot of content with the Big 12 I could imagine them shooting an offer to the PAC and try to get a bargain. Having ESPN and/or Fox tied to all the other conferences except yours, and having the CFP with ESPN seems like the PAC would always be in the crosshairs of ESPN to get them to dissolve or strongarm them out of the playoff.

 

[AuH2O]

True, but the infighting might drive something to happen. There will be calls for unequal revenue sharing, renegotiation of TV contract, adding teams, anything they can throw against the wall. There could be a lot of acrimony, and that might be enough to make something happen. Even get 8 teams to work together to dissolve the conference (assuming 8 of them could find landing spots elsewhere, which is possible).

Zeroth law of economics: If something is unsustainable, eventually it will stop.

Clemson making half what Iowa State does is "unsustainable".

But Clemson making 1/3 of what Northwestern, Purdue, Illinois, Rutgers, Maryland, Vandy, etc. is unsustainable by that definition, yet it's been happening and is going to happen for a long time.

The thing is, if Clemson football just disappeared tomorrow, it would make almost no difference in the business of college football media. In the midst of a dynastic run they had primetime ESPN games against other ranked teams and would draw like 2M viewers.

So actually Clemson making 1/2 of ISU, or 1/3 of Northwestern is perfectly sustainable in the broader college football environment. Obviously Clemson could be highly valuable in the Big 10 or SEC. But it really isn't impacting the P2 to not have them, nor is it a problem for CFB.

It doesn't make sense that Clemson makes less than many of these teams, but a few teams being born on third base doesn't change the fact that Clemson is locked into a bad deal. And it doesn't change the fact that they STILL don't have a fraction of the value Texas has, yet Texas couldn't buy their way out.

 

[Die4Cy]

Regarding the ACC, provided they pull their weight from a football standpoint going forward, ESPN will likely renegotiate their deal to keep it roughly in line with Big 12. They did this on their last deal before the ACC network one. There is precedence for it, with their deal from 2010 being reevaluated by ESPN in 2012, and then getting the ACC network deal three years early in 2015. With the entire conference inventory under their umbrella, they will want to do whatever is reasonable to keep it that way.

 

[Die4Cy]

Just keep in mind we tend to look at these conference payouts as fans. Media bidders look at them more as "cost of program inventory per ratings point."

 

[Stormin]

Regarding the ACC, provided they pull their weight from a football standpoint going forward, ESPN will likely renegotiate their deal to keep it roughly in line with Big 12. They did this on their last deal before the ACC network one. There is precedence for it, with their deal from 2010 being reevaluated by ESPN in 2012, and then getting the ACC network deal three years early in 2015. With the entire conference inventory under their umbrella, they will want to do whatever is reasonable to keep it that way.

The ACC is locked down till 2036. There is no incentive to renegotiate. They have it all now. And they have it for years. Big 12 contract comes up before ACC. ESPN might need money for that.

 

[Mr.G.Spot]

I'm sure they will, but frankly it will make very little impact to these universities. To put it in perspective, University of Iowa (not including UI hospital) had operating revenues of $3.7 B. Let's say Iowa Athletics kicks over 10% of that eventual $100M athletics revenue. That represents less than one days worth of revenue for the university as a whole.

I know I kick this dead horse a lot, but while college sports are big business, they still represent a small part of the Universities' revenues as a whole.

The real question is: does the hospital make money or do they receive state support to operate?

 

[AuH2O]

The real question is: does the hospital make money or do they receive state support to operate?

I don't think they get much in direct government funding. Almost all their revenue is from patient services. Now that could have some gov't funding baked in, but they separate out government funding, and aside from COVID-related work has been a very small portion of their total revenues.

That's always the annoying part about our state legislature taking down the Board of Regents and Brandstad's plan over a decade ago to shift funding to follow in-state students. One of the primary arguments against it used by some of the state Legislators was that UI needed a higher level of per student funding due to the hospital, when it in fact operates independently from the university. It was a completely false argument and our dim bulbs in the state legislature fell for it.

 

[aeroclone]

The ACC is locked down till 2036. There is no incentive to renegotiate. They have it all now. And they have it for years. Big 12 contract comes up before ACC. ESPN might need money for that.

Exactly, the networks have all this content locked up cheap for 14 more years. Why on earth would they come to the table to offer these schools more for the same product? Thanks to the GOR none of the teams can leave. There is no leverage to change terms of a signed contract.

 

[VeloClone]

Not going to lie, I was a little nervous having no football "blue bloods" was going to potentially destroy the league. Fortunately for the Big 12 that wasn't the case. The new Big 12 deal could have been greater with UT and OU were still in the league but now the cancer (Texas) is out of the Big 12. Only time will tell if Texas destroys (SWC)/nearly destroys (Big 12) another league.

Texas in the league was what required each of the league schools to sell their Tier 3 rights separately. Everyone but Texas bundled them together and sold them to ESPN+ (Big 12 Now) but now with Texas and their Longwhorn Network gone there is no reason to do that.

 

[Mr.G.Spot]

I don't think they get much in direct government funding. Almost all their revenue is from patient services. Now that could have some gov't funding baked in, but they separate out government funding, and aside from COVID-related work has been a very small portion of their total revenues.

That's always the annoying part about our state legislature taking down the Board of Regents and Brandstad's plan over a decade ago to shift funding to follow in-state students. One of the primary arguments against it used by some of the state Legislators was that UI needed a higher level of per student funding due to the hospital, when it in fact operates independently from the university. It was a completely false argument and our dim bulbs in the state legislature fell for it.

I hope you are correct. The last time I looked into their deficit was about 5 years ago and it was in the tens of millions of dollars. I would be shocked if they aren't still operating at a deficit and receiving state support.

 

[2speedy1]

Not as bad as the "Dude Wipes" on the shoulder of the NY City MLS kit.

Already happened. Real Tree on Ole Miss helmets this year.

Ole Miss, Realtree Partner on Football Helmet, Exclusive Gear

Rebels to Wear Custom Helmet against Kentucky on Saturday

www.realtree.com

 

[Die4Cy]

The ACC is locked down till 2036. There is no incentive to renegotiate. They have it all now. And they have it for years. Big 12 contract comes up before ACC. ESPN might need money for that.

Disagree for two reasons. One, you don't want a disparity to become so large you risk losing teams breaking out of a GoR to a conference you do not control. Two, you know you will be sitting across from them at a negotiating table some day and a little early good will could save you millions in the long run. Again, the ESPN has already done this with ACC twice, and actually I think the Big 12 once (when we went to ten teams and did not take a pay cut). It is likely to happen again.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Disagree for two reasons. One, you don't want a disparity to become so large you risk losing teams breaking out of a GoR to a conference you do not control. Two, you know you will be sitting across from them at a negotiating table some day and a little early good will could save you millions in the long run. Again, the ESPN has already done this with ACC twice, and actually I think the Big 12 once (when we went to ten teams and did not take a pay cut). It is likely to happen again.

There is no risk of teams braking out of a GOR. People keep bringing up like it is something that could realistically happen. It has yet to happen as we just saw with OUT. These contracts are rock solid and the ACC’s is notoriously iron clad

 

[IceCyIce]

So actually Clemson making 1/2 of ISU, or 1/3 of Northwestern is perfectly sustainable in the broader college football environment. Obviously Clemson could be highly valuable in the Big 10 or SEC. But it really isn't impacting the P2 to not have them, nor is it a problem for CFB.

So the Big 12 needs to invite them. They could be a juggernaught in the conference and make more $$$

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Disagree for two reasons. One, you don't want a disparity to become so large you risk losing teams breaking out of a GoR to a conference you do not control. Two, you know you will be sitting across from them at a negotiating table some day and a little early good will could save you millions in the long run. Again, the ESPN has already done this with ACC twice, and actually I think the Big 12 once (when we went to ten teams and did not take a pay cut). It is likely to happen again.

Why pay more when the ACC is locked up and the moment that the GoR is up, the better programs will be moving to the SEC and B10?
It's silly to think that programs like Clemson are going to stay in the ACC making $50 million a season, when they can jump to the SEC and double that money.

ESPN redid the deal with the B12 a few years ago because Bowlsby had the good on them going behind the back of the league and cutting a deal with UT and OU to move to the SEC. The league used that to keep the money coming in, and had to help in this round of negations.
The ACC and the Pac 12 will be carved up between the B10, SEC with the B12 taking the left-over schools. ESPN controls the SEC, Fox controls the Big10 and both share the B12 as the 3rd major conference.

 

[AuH2O]

So the Big 12 needs to invite them. They could be a juggernaught in the conference and make more $$$

They can invite them all they want. I’m sure SEC or Big 10 would love to have them and Clemson would love to go there.

But if Texas and ESPN don’t have the cash to get UT out early there’s no way anybody is ponying up to get Clemson moved.

 

[Newell]

Mizzou had big plans for a total stadium reno, that has never happened. They only ended up doing 1 endzone. And the rest was scrapped. Makes you wonder.

First the spent &75 million installing luxury suites on the East side of the stadium and some seats above that in the clouds.

Then the built new training facility and coaches offices and ripped out 10,500 affordable blue collar seats in the South end zone to install 16 luxury suites. They are giving away thousands of free tickets to make official attendance look better than it really is. Meanwhile the SEC has a no pass out rule which causes packed conditions at halftime and they did nothing to alleviate that. They wonder why people have stopped attending the games while top recruits are listing poor attendance as a reason they are avoiding Missouri.

 

[Clonehomer]

There is no risk of teams braking out of a GOR. People keep bringing up like it is something that could realistically happen. It has yet to happen as we just saw with OUT. These contracts are rock solid and the ACC’s is notoriously iron clad

They are if the conference wants to make them. What if ESPN came in and said that if you let Clemson and UNC (or pick team 2) go, we'll increase your payout by $5m per school. Would you take that? Everything is possible with the right amount of money.

Would obviously be more difficult with the Big10 poaching schools since they don't have the same TV partners that could broker a deal

 

[Stormin]

Disagree for two reasons. One, you don't want a disparity to become so large you risk losing teams breaking out of a GoR to a conference you do not control. Two, you know you will be sitting across from them at a negotiating table some day and a little early good will could save you millions in the long run. Again, the ESPN has already done this with ACC twice, and actually I think the Big 12 once (when we went to ten teams and did not take a pay cut). It is likely to happen again.

There is no such thing as good will in these negotiations. ESPN voluntarily gives up millions and when the next contract is due the ACC is going to sign with the highest bidder. There is no loyalty when it comes to money.