Big 12 Conference Realignment
- Thread starter t-noah
- Start date
I'll be the first to admit, any valuation I put on each school is a guess. We know Big12 schools are going to make $31.7M on average annually from its extension with ESPN/Fox. We know the Big10 schools are going to make around $75M on average with Fox/NBC/CBS. We can also anticipate Oregon & Washington having a higher media value in the Big12 than in the upcoming Pac12 media deal due to our access to linear time slots and games played in CT & ET zones.
That's a big gap ($43M) between adding value for the Big12 and adding value for the Big10. I guess what we do know is neither school is worth $75M. But are they worth $50M+ each to ESPN/Fox? If so I think the Big12 should go after them aggressively. Are they worth $40M+ each? Maybe a deal is structured tied to performance and growing the Big12 revenue.
Come back to me in 3 years when Ohio State, Penn State & Michigan ask for a bonus from the Big10 for getting picked to play in the 12 team playoff.
Up to this point, a conference was getting under $80M annually as its share of the 4 team playoff. In a couple years, the Big10 & SEC are going to try to corner the better part of $2B. Greed's going to erupt and unequal revenue will be commonplace even in the Big10.
The extra time slot may be what makes them even more valuable to the big XII. They may be worth more in the aggregate than as a part. That could push everyone to say 37.5MM.
You are talking about a bonus for making the playoff...out of the probable bonus for extra teams in said playoff for conferences with said extra teams in the playoff vs paying them more out of the normal media deal and other revenue package.
Those are 2 different things.
I am saying I would consider both. One is an automatic and one is performance driven.
If ESPN/Fox (or another partner) are willing to pay the Big12 more than $31.7M per school for Oregon and Washington- then I would be willing to share some of those monies with those schools. Aka my comment if ESPN/Fox would give the Big12 $100M of new money for both schools.
If it's a CFP bonus- then that wouldn't just be available to Oregon/Washington, but all Big12 teams.
Yeah it won’t. The only conference that has done unequal revenue is the Big12 and while I love the conference you have been a dumpster fire for stability. Unequal share is a massive problem that you lived through so again I don’t know why you have a mental block over this but it’s getting sad.
Could the CFP deal send more money to the teams that make the playoff? Sure. But that is an outside the conference negotiation that is completely different than baking in unequal revenue. No different then a school getting paid more by Nike then another school in the conference.
Big 12 has a history of doing unequal revenue sharing, and it didn't end well. Oregon and Washington are welcome to join earning the same amount as everyone else. If they don't like it, then piss off.
Who is deciding that "outside the conference negotiation"? Is there really a difference if Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, USC join with Bama, Georgia, Texas and A&M to twist arms to get a much larger share for playoff teams? If they're ideologically pure about having equal distribution, the Big10 teams would tell Bama, Georgia, etc. to pound and keep payments equal per school.
Also your Nike example, interesting. So its OK if an outside party (Nike) decides to pay Michigan a lot more than Iowa, Illinois, Purdue, etc. But its NOT OK if outside parties (ESPN, Fox, etc.) pay the Big12 a significant amount above $31.7M per school if the Big12 adds Oregon & Washington AND the Big12 gives Oregon/Washington a slightly ($5M) bigger cut each year. I bet Michigan's deal with Nike is worth more than $5M above Iowa, etc.
Seems like you are creating arbitrary classifications for which revenue streams it is OK to be unequal and those that are not. I would think Phil Knight would be more than willing to make an offer to have Nike as the Big10's exclusive shoe/apparel provider. Then Michigan could have equal shoe revenue distribution with Iowa. Life is Better When We Share Equally.
No I'm not trolling! I am not concerned if uneven distribution is a small # like $5M annually (which is what I think the tweet was saying).
I strongly believe it's no big deal if Oregon & Washington receive a base media rights payout at 115% of the other Big12 schools. Because I believe ESPN/Fox (or a 3rd Network) could pay the Big12 an additional $100M ($50M each) to add those schools. If ESPN/Fox, etc. wouldn't pay such a multiplier, then its a different negotiation.
But I would hate to be the Big12 in 5 years and looking back and saying, "Wow, Oregon was a national power and in the CFP 5 times and earned the Pac12 $135M in playoff revenue over the period. But the Big12 could have invited those 2 schools and paid them each $25M more than other schools over the period. And on top of that every Big12 team's base media deal with ESPN/Fox would have bumped up from $31.7M to $33.7M.
Yes, but here’s the thing. The Big10 doesn’t want Oregon or Washington…otherwise they would have had them. And those schools should be looking at the way things are trending…and see that Houston and BYU could be worth more than them in 5-10 years if they stay with the dying PAC. And to give them the opportunity to join the Big12 at a premium rate and give them an easy out if they play well enough to entice the Big10 is stupid. IF you let them in, you show them they’re lucky to be here…and you lock them in with high exit fees. Not interested otherwise…
No way to unequal revenue sharing, possibly Yes to a no GOR for Oregon and Washington. If they decide not to come, they can use the Big 12 no GOR offer to help muck up their Pac tv deal. Without Oregon or Washington, 4 corner schools more receptive to joining with Big 12. Then, if we lose Oregon and Washington, no biggie, we have the 4 corners. This would be a long game play.
Nothing like commenting to your own post. I have to retract a little of this. I don't know if 4 corners would leave for the Big 12 with Oregon / Washington gone. Who would have thought the Big 12 would be around with all our defections. Plus, Pac winner is in the CFP.
Unequal Revenue Sharing has worked in which Conferences?
Big Ten and SEC share equally. The unequal distribution eventually leads to the Conference unrest and lack of commitment.
UW and UO will find that you need opponents to play. So they need the Conference as much as anyone else. No uneven distribution. The couple million is not worth the division it creates.
They'd also find that the unequal revenue sharing thing cuts both ways. If they were to get a B1G invite, there's little chance they'd come into the conference getting a full cut.
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TX left knowing their tier 3 rights would be ending their gravy train and brought a cash strapped ou along as the bow on the package. Good chance ou ends up as the nu of the sec. ut will start dumping on them as soon as they get a chance. It's the tx way.
B1G is not going to allow them to play the B1G teams. Ohio State, Michigan, etc. are reneging on their promised home and home series. SEC will do the same. Why raise the profiles of the Ducks and Huskies if they win? Lack of television exposure will affect recruiting. No recruit wants to play there with all the other options to get on national TV with millions of eyeballs watching.
Maybe, but the current conference media money is shared equally in the SEC and BIG, who seem to be leading the money chase for conferences, and the Big 12 has had many problems over the last 20 years with the unequal distributions. Alabama/Georgia $$ >>>>> than Mississippi/Vanderbilt; Michigan/tOSU $$>>>>> than Indiana/Northwestern, yet these conferences are the richest for conference media rights. Schools are partners when it comes to media rights, not adversaries.
