Way too early starting lineup talk for the 23-24 season

SoleCyclone

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Lol. You don’t understand coaches putting their best players on the floor or you didn’t watch Lipsey play. Had Williams not gotten injured we’d have had another Morris - Kane situation. Oh, you’re a condescending ahole if you didn’t know.
In this world of a Lipsey & Williams both starting last year in relation to Morris/Kane, who does Lipsey start over? Gabe, Holmes, Grill, Osun?
 

cyfan92

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The best ISU teams had stud guards that were first off the bench and played significant minutes. I think Curtis Jones or Pav could fit that role nicely.

This last year, when we had a cold shooting start, we had no consistent threat to bring off the bench. In 2023/24, we could sub in Milan and one of the transfer guards and add two immediate threats from all three levels.
 

SoleCyclone

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Subbing out an all-big12 (freshman) for a player coming off a significant injury and shot 23% from 3 his last year playing is definitely an interesting take..
This conversation is about who would have been the point guard last season if Williams had not been hurt. Futile, believe me, I know. But, I'll maintain my point that if healthy, Williams was to be the point guard last year and TJ had no intention of starting a true freshman for the 2nd year in a row at that position. I'll give credit to Lipsey, without him we wouldn't have been able to keep turnovers under 25 a game last year
 

cyfan92

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Monte Morris went 10-35 from three, in conference play, his first year at ISU playing on a final four quality team.. He the next year he went 18-41 (15% better)

Tamin played on a team that talent wise, was NIT quality..
 

Statefan10

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No one will ever know who would’ve ended up starting had Williams not gotten injured. Lipsey has now proved he’s a starting Big 12 PG and a damn good one at that, but he also has a lot to work out offensively.

Williams being injured and not doing anything full speed since October throws a wrench into him being able to start by November. I’d give it a less than 5% chance it happens.
 
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isucy86

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I dont understand what basis some of you guys have for Lipsey being on the bench. He was one of the best all around players on the team last year as a true freshman.

Yeah, his shooting needs some work, but his penetrating skills were better than Hunter and he plays elite defense.

We don't even know when Williams will be full speed and it usually takes a guy a year or two before they are fully recovered from Achilles injuries .

The more plausible scenario is Lipsey starts every game and plays 30 minutes like last year and Williams comes off the bench for defense and ball handling.
You could be right. If Williams injury still impacts him 1 year out- that is a concern. Williams still has 6 months to get right, so I'll be optimistic he's ready by October.

But last year TJ didn't have many options at guard. Gabe & Caleb weren't ball handlers and Grill's injury/getting boot made him a non factor late in the season. Holmes was solid on offense, but a defensive liability against quicker guards. Even Kunc wasn't the same after returning from hand injury.

If Lipsey can make around 30% on jumpers or develops a go to mid-range shot, then no question he starts. But he was only 2-15 on 3 point shots in Big12 play and we saw teams drop off him. Until Tamin makes teams pay, they will continue to drop off. The bad thing, if Tamin can't hit jumpers, that impacts other player's offense because Tamin's defender can clog the paint.

Even if Williams isn't ready, TJ has options. That's why he brought in Curtis Jones, Gilbert and Paveletzke. I believe the later 2 can play PG and Curtis Jones is compared to Holmes. Or TJ can play big and play Biliew at the SF spot and only start 2 guards- Gilbert & Curtis Jones.

It's not like I am saying Lipsey will languish on the bench, but if his shot doesn't improve significantly, why wouldn't TJ give bigger minutes to Williams, Jones, Gilbert or Paveletzke?
 

clonedude

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Remember that Williams shot 32% from three in his freshman year and 23% from three in his sophomore year. He was more willing to shoot from that distance from Lipsey, but he wasn't exactly draining threes in his most recent live games.

Yeah…. I don’t get how people automatically assume Williams is a better shooter than Lipsey? He hasn’t really proven that in the past.
 

Statefan10

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Yeah…. I don’t get how people automatically assume Williams is a better shooter than Lipsey? He hasn’t really proven that in the past.
I also think a ton of Tamin’s shooting woes came from between his ears. Being a freshman he was very reserved and not as confident as I believe he’ll end up being next year and the years to follow.

Putting in the work and the boost of confidence will help tremendously.
 

isucy86

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Subbing out an all-big12 (freshman) for a player coming off a significant injury and shot 23% from 3 his last year playing is definitely an interesting take..
But Williams hit like 32% his first year. Which Williams do we see? We also have Gilbert who can play PG.

It's easy to focus on Lipsey improving his 3 point shot. And he does to be an elite Big12 PG. But he can also make people guard him if he develops a mid-range jumper or even a go to shot around the free throw circle.

You mentioned Monte earlier. His floater was deadly. Plus he was such a great passer, no way were defenders going to give him space. Also, TJ and staff can game plan if teams back off Tamin. Play small with Biliew/King/Momcilovic at the 4/5 and clear the paint and let Lipsey drive. Or back-cuts and screeners to let Tamin alley oop to Biliew, Watson, Ward, etc.
 

CyPunch

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If Williams is good enough coming off a major injury to threaten the starting job of the Big 12 all-freshmen point guard, we will have one of the best backcourts in the conference.

I just don't see it happening at all. Heck, I hope Williams is healthy and good enough to carve out a backup PG role. Right now I'd have him as our 5th best guard behind Tamin, Pav, Gilbert, and Jones.
 

hurdleisu24

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On paper this team seems to have the ability to ride the hot hand. Many multiple level scorers. My worry is TJ sticking to his rotations like he did last season. We slumped when coaches figured out when BRE was coming in. We had the same couple players coming in and playing together. Teams figured out how to exploit that. We have some unique matchups, Milan, Omaha, J Will, proven D1 scorers (transfers) and an a PG that is elite finisher at the hoop. TJ needs to expand his offensive gameplan and be comfortable with every combination on the floor.
 

NoCreativity

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You could be right. If Williams injury still impacts him 1 year out- that is a concern. Williams still has 6 months to get right, so I'll be optimistic he's ready by October.

But last year TJ didn't have many options at guard. Gabe & Caleb weren't ball handlers and Grill's injury/getting boot made him a non factor late in the season. Holmes was solid on offense, but a defensive liability against quicker guards. Even Kunc wasn't the same after returning from hand injury.

If Lipsey can make around 30% on jumpers or develops a go to mid-range shot, then no question he starts. But he was only 2-15 on 3 point shots in Big12 play and we saw teams drop off him. Until Tamin makes teams pay, they will continue to drop off. The bad thing, if Tamin can't hit jumpers, that impacts other player's offense because Tamin's defender can clog the paint.

Even if Williams isn't ready, TJ has options. That's why he brought in Curtis Jones, Gilbert and Paveletzke. I believe the later 2 can play PG and Curtis Jones is compared to Holmes. Or TJ can play big and play Biliew at the SF spot and only start 2 guards- Gilbert & Curtis Jones.

It's not like I am saying Lipsey will languish on the bench, but if his shot doesn't improve significantly, why wouldn't TJ give bigger minutes to Williams, Jones, Gilbert or Paveletzke?
I agree with most of your points, im just trying to envision a scenario in which a guy who started e every game as a true freshman and looked the part from Day 1 is all of a sudden a backup?

Lipsey needs to run the offense, facilitate, and play good defense. We have plenty of other options who can shoot this year that we didn't have last year.

Remember Holloway? Guy barely was allowed to shoot, yet was the facilitator on one of the best teams in school history.
 
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isucy86

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If Williams is good enough coming off a major injury to threaten the starting job of the Big 12 all-freshmen point guard, we will have one of the best backcourts in the conference.

I just don't see it happening at all. Heck, I hope Williams is healthy and good enough to carve out a backup PG role. Right now I'd have him as our 5th best guard behind Tamin, Pav, Gilbert, and Jones.
My take is we have 5 guards who are very close in ability. At this point I am not convinced we have a stud guard, but 5 solid guards. Like I said originally, who gets the most minutes will be determined game-to-game based on who's hitting shots or who creates the biggest mismatch for the opponent.
 

LLCoolCY

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I agree with most of your points, im just trying to envision a scenario in which a guy who started e every game as a true freshman and looked the part from Day 1 is all of a sudden a backup?

Lipsey needs to run the offense, facilitate, and play good defense. We have plenty of other options who can shoot this year that we didn't have last year.

Remember Holloway? Guy barely was allowed to shoot, yet was the facilitator on one of the best teams in school history.
Right. I can understand some fans wanting more shooting out of the PG position but to think that Tamin who started every game at an above b12 level as a freshman not being the starter going into the year doesn't make sense to me. Especially for Williams coming off a major injury and never playing in the B12. Tamin is a culture guy that TJ trust it would take a major regression for him to get his minutes reduced.
 

TheDudeAbides

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For some reason I just can't keep myself away from Robert Jones discourse.

This season, Jones averaged 17 MPG, 9 games with at least 20 minutes and 18 with at least 17 minutes. In the 9 games with at least 20 minutes, Iowa State went 6-3. In the 18 games with at least 17 minutes, Iowa State went 12-6. And no, those records aren't because those games were only against non-conference cupcakes (Western Michigan was the only non-power 6 opponent of the 9 games he played more than 20 minutes).

Obviously it's correlation and not causation, but it seems like hyperbole to say "we are in BIG trouble" if he plays 20 minutes a game considering they did fine (better than the season record actually) when he did this year.
To say those records were because of him, is going a little far. There was a lack of options, and he was the body that was in there at times. Sure he plays hard on the defensive end, but our offense severely struggled when he was on the floor - specifically against better competition.

With the depth, and talent on the roster next year, those kind of minutes out of him simply won't be needed. And if they are - there were probably some injuries, unending foul trouble, or guys didn't live up to their hype(unlikely). Which is where the "BIG trouble" comes from.
 
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cyclones500

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On paper this team seems to have the ability to ride the hot hand. Many multiple level scorers. My worry is TJ sticking to his rotations like he did last season. We slumped when coaches figured out when BRE was coming in. We had the same couple players coming in and playing together. Teams figured out how to exploit that. We have some unique matchups, Milan, Omaha, J Will, proven D1 scorers (transfers) and an a PG that is elite finisher at the hoop. TJ needs to expand his offensive gameplan and be comfortable with every combination on the floor.
He definitely needs to do better at customizing rotation based on game flow, performance, adjusting to opponent. I don't mind having a basic template involving auto-subbing for team rhythm, but you can't be anchored to it all the time.
 

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