I don't buy Pittsburgh at all, and while I think Milwaukee will end up winning the division, their current record is buoyed by that unsustainable 14-5 start. They're 1-4 since and are now on the verge of being swept by the Tigers at home. Woodruff is on the shelf for the foreseeable future and Burnes has struggled. And their offense has been average, at best. They're in the middle tier in almost every under the hood statistic, and in the bottom tier for the ones they're not.
And while I don't buy Pittsburgh as a contender, they aren't outright terrible like they have been for years. And St. Louis might be pushing the envelope for sinking their season in April, they'll start playing better eventually. Point being, the NL Central winner probably won't have a win total that's inflated by feasting on three terrible division rivals all season, which has been the case for several years now.