Big 12 Conference Realignment

[HFCS]

I just gave the reality, which is the relative value of football vs. basketball. If TV execs say MBB is 20-25%, that means in the aggregate the value is 1/4 to 1/3.

But at the same time, PSU-Michigan State football also didn't break 2M, and you're talking about the two brands in the highest value media league in the top 5 after OSU and Michigan along with Wisconsin. Let's also keep in mind that CFB derives a WAY higher proportion of their value from a single regular season game than CBB, and it's not even close.

I agree that I don't believe UConn is a blue blood in terms of media value, at least not yet. I think the fact that the ratings for this past title game were down support that. But I think the value of basketball blue bloods is equal to or greater than the current Big 12 payout per team.

But as a comparison, the viewership for the SDSU-UConn game were 15M. The previous years KU-UNC game was 17m.

The three College football playoff games were about 22, 22 and 17M, and these were games that included Georgia x2, Michigan and Ohio State.

SDSU in the title game had to be a big part of that, they have no fans and the region doesn't like college sports.

I was texting my SDSU alum friends in socal to let them know they made the final four.

I'm guessing UConn/UNC/Duke/KU/Kentucky are pretty close to the same and SDSU is one of the worst teams you could put in there for eyes.

SDSU wouldn't be anywhere near my top ten (top 20?) expansion choices for B12 unless something comes out that new TV markets we don't already have is #1 priority regardless of fan engagement.

 

[Gunnerclone]

I agree they don't have elite TV value compared to other Pac10 or ACC schools the Big12 is linked with.

But value of CU/UConn combination only matters if the Big12 were going to stop at 14 or 16 teams. If the long-term vision is a 20-24 team Big12+, then CU and UConn are part of that puzzle.

What matters in 2024 is what ESPN/FOX are willing to pay to increase the Big12 deal. We know they will pay $31.7M for CU. So the missing piece is what will ESPN/FOX pay for UConn to be part of Big12. Is it $10M, $15M, $20M or $31.7M?

IMO adding UConn in 2024 makes sense if it doesn't dilute the $31.7M Big12 schools are getting today. It gives UConn 6 years to build a respectable P5 level football program with increased financial resources.

UConn is the primary state school, in a state a little bigger than Iowa. Similar to Rutgers giving Big10 visibility in NY market area, UConn gives similar (if not more) visibility.

My NYC power rankings:

Syracuse
Notre Dame
UConn
tOSU
Michigan

 

[Clonehomer]

I agree they don't have elite TV value compared to other Pac10 or ACC schools the Big12 is linked with.

But value of CU/UConn combination only matters if the Big12 were going to stop at 14 or 16 teams. If the long-term vision is a 20-24 team Big12+, then CU and UConn are part of that puzzle.

What matters in 2024 is what ESPN/FOX are willing to pay to increase the Big12 deal. We know they will pay $31.7M for CU. So the missing piece is what will ESPN/FOX pay for UConn to be part of Big12. Is it $10M, $15M, $20M or $31.7M?

IMO adding UConn in 2024 makes sense if it doesn't dilute the $31.7M Big12 schools are getting today. It gives UConn 6 years to build a respectable P5 level football program with increased financial resources.

UConn is the primary state school, in a state a little bigger than Iowa. Similar to Rutgers giving Big10 visibility in NY market area, UConn gives similar (if not more) visibility.

I feel like this would have been a decent argument after OuT left. But we are now in a stable situation. We don't have to expand if the teams aren't right. So don't go chasing schools just for the sake of expansion. 12 teams is perfectly fine in today's environment. Neither CU or UCONN are fielding offers to join other P5 conferences. So, they'll be available later once the dust settles in the PAC if that's where we want to go.

 

[AuH2O]

You didn't even touch on that for the regular season and post-season, CBB has about 3x the amount of product so each INDIVIDUAL game only needs to be .333 of a CFB game to be of approx. equal value.

I would guess for advertisers, they may see CBB as the better value play as they can air an ad 3x (you would think at 1/3 the price per) to get the same number of views (more times seen, more likely to remember), but I am not in the biz so am just spit-balling off the top of my head.

One thing that isn't really clear how media value works is how number of games x viewers compares. In other words, I doubt 8 CBB games at 500k viewers each is the same value as one CFB game at 4 million viewers. I don't know if there's been some good explanations of this, but I suspect the latter has way more unique vs. repeat viewers.

So I don't think it's quite that the viewership can be 1/3 or so of a CFB game to have the same relative value.

But I think your point remains, and is what I'm after. When people say that basketball doesn't matter, they are wrong. Of course it is not as valuable as CFB, and a basketball brand alone isn't going to provide enough value to justify addition by the Big 10 or SEC, that are getting a ton of $/team because of the likes of Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, Georgia, OU and UT. But for a league like the Big 12 at the current payout, it's conceivable that a low-value football brand but high-value basketball brand like UConn or to a less extreme extent Arizona MAY make sense. I'm not saying it is the case, but I think it is possible. We'll know a lot more about the relative value of MBB vs. FB if the Big 12 splits them out.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

One thing that isn't really clear how media value works is how number of games x viewers compares. In other words, I doubt 8 CBB games at 500k viewers each is the same value as one CFB game at 4 million viewers. I don't know if there's been some good explanations of this, but I suspect the latter has way more unique vs. repeat viewers.

So I don't think it's quite that the viewership can be 1/3 or so of a CFB game to have the same relative value.

But I think your point remains, and is what I'm after. When people say that basketball doesn't matter, they are wrong. Of course it is not as valuable as CFB, and a basketball brand alone isn't going to provide enough value to justify addition by the Big 10 or SEC, that are getting a ton of $/team because of the likes of Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, Georgia, OU and UT. But for a league like the Big 12 at the current payout, it's conceivable that a low-value football brand but high-value basketball brand like UConn or to a less extreme extent Arizona MAY make sense. I'm not saying it is the case, but I think it is possible. We'll know a lot more about the relative value of MBB vs. FB if the Big 12 splits them out.

This is a very good post. Totally agree with you that until the value gets split we won’t have much of an idea except what occasionally gets mentioned by media people. One point though is that UConn isn’t just a low value football program it’s a bottom barrel program. The Big12 has made some amazing moves with its media deal but it cannot add another G5 football program.

 

[isucy86]

I feel like this would have been a decent argument after OuT left. But we are now in a stable situation. We don't have to expand if the teams aren't right. So don't go chasing schools just for the sake of expansion. 12 teams is perfectly fine in today's environment. Neither CU or UCONN are fielding offers to join other P5 conferences. So, they'll be available later once the dust settles in the PAC if that's where we want to go.

If Big12 leadership believes over the next decade there will be a Big10, SEC plus 1 or 2 other conferences, the Big12 should add schools that fit the Big12's media rights profile now.

Instead of treading water between now and the Big12's next TV deal we should be creating value. Add brands, expand reach, create new revenue streams, etc, etc.

If ESPN & FOX are willing to pay for UConn today, why wait? Obviously the 4 corner schools are priorities in front of UConn, but IMO UConn has a place in a 20-24 team Big12.

 

[Clonehomer]

If Big12 leadership believes over the next decade there will be a Big10, SEC plus 1 or 2 other conferences, the Big12 should add schools that fit the Big12's media rights profile now.

Instead of treading water between now and the Big12's next TV deal we should be creating value. Add brands, expand reach, create new revenue streams, etc, etc.

If ESPN & FOX are willing to pay for UConn today, why wait? Obviously the 4 corner schools are priorities in front of UConn, but IMO UConn has a place in a 20-24 team Big12.

Cause what happens if UCONN and UCF don't develop as we hope they do? Then we'll be saddled with a couple anchors come the next deal not unlike what the PAC is dealing with now.

But, I guess I don't see 20-24 team conferences. If 16 is the limit we see, I don't see UCONN being in the top 4 expansion options. So I guess that's the big difference in where we're coming from.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Cause what happens if UCONN and UCF don't develop as we hope they do? Then we'll be saddled with a couple anchors come the next deal not unlike what the PAC is dealing with now.

But, I guess I don't see 20-24 team conferences. If 16 is the limit we see, I don't see UCONN being in the top 4 expansion options. So I guess that's the big difference in where we're coming from.

Of the football schools you added, UCF should be the least of your concerns.

 

[RustShack]

This is a very good post. Totally agree with you that until the value gets split we won’t have much of an idea except what occasionally gets mentioned by media people. One point though is that UConn isn’t just a low value football program it’s a bottom barrel program. The Big12 has made some amazing moves with its media deal but it cannot add another G5 football program.

UCONN isn’t G5. It had a solid P6 football team until the BigEast dropped football. It’s still a P6 basketball school, and an independent in football.

But as I’ve said before, they should only be added if an odd number of PAC schools are added. No G5’s should be considered.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

UCONN isn’t G5. It had a solid P6 football team until the BigEast dropped football. It’s still a P6 basketball school, and an independent in football.

But as I’ve said before, they should only be added if an odd number of PAC schools are added. No G5’s should be considered.

UConn isn’t G5? What conference do they play football in?

 

[AuH2O]

This is a very good post. Totally agree with you that until the value gets split we won’t have much of an idea except what occasionally gets mentioned by media people. One point though is that UConn isn’t just a low value football program it’s a bottom barrel program. The Big12 has made some amazing moves with its media deal but it cannot add another G5 football program.

Agreed, if UConn football was even mediocre I think they probably get an offer. But their football is absolutely an anchor.

 

[RustShack]

UConn isn’t G5? What conference do they play football in?

You don’t know what independent means?

 

[AuH2O]

UCONN isn’t G5. It had a solid P6 football team until the BigEast dropped football. It’s still a P6 basketball school, and an independent in football.

But as I’ve said before, they should only be added if an odd number of PAC schools are added. No G5’s should be considered.

They are a P6 basketball school but they are a G5 school. They were good in the days of the zombie Big East after the good programs left and it had zero business being still considered a P5. It was like taking two Big 10 wests together and calling them a P5 league.

 

[OldCurmudgeon]

Nice to see the freshmen are excited about joining:

 

[Jer]

Nice to see the freshmen are excited about joining:

I know a lot of people don't like the adds or think we're too good for them, but I think they're great adds. Not only do all 4 WANT to be here, they have all the tools to be solid programs in both football and basketball.

In many ways, several are very similar to the ISU, Kansas State, and Kansas mold. Big and strong enough to be at the big boys table but not in the top tier year-in-year-out.

They also allow us to have good competition in football while not making the basketball side even harder.

 

[PickSix]

I know a lot of people don't like the adds or think we're too good for them, but I think they're great adds. Not only do all 4 WANT to be here, they have all the tools to be solid programs in both football and basketball.

In many ways, several are very similar to the ISU, Kansas State, and Kansas mold. Big and strong enough to be at the big boys table but not in the top tier year-in-year-out.

They also allow us to have good competition in football while not making the basketball side even harder.

I heard Jamie on the Heartland College Sports podcast this week say that it was the 4 new additions who pushed the conference not to change the name. They seem to be truly proud of the brand and I imagine they see Big 12 membership as the culmination of years of hard work.

It's cool to see the infusion of conference pride and excitement the newbies are bringing with them. Definitely feels like a whole different conference than it did just a couple short years ago.

 

[SaraV]

 

[AlaCyclone]

@ Cincinnati, @ UCF, @ BYU and @ Houston: Welcome to the Big XII!

My Bearcats, Golden Knights, Blue and Red Cougars bona fides:

@ Cincinnati Bearcats: I lived in Cincinnati for 17 years and have seen the Bearcats play 40 times with a 26-14 record. I have seen UC play as a C-USA, Big East and American team. Nippert is a hidden gem of a CFB Stadium. Too many games to mention, but the 2002 game vs. Ohio State @ Paul Brown Stadium on *Oktoberfest Weekend* stands out, even in defeat. Last game @ Nippert was vs. Tulane in 2018 on a magnificent day, and I last saw the Bearcats in the 2021 Cotton Bowl vs. Alabama. Looking forward to seeing the Bearcats play as a Big XII Team!

@ UCF Knights: I graduated from High School in Orlando back, back, back in the day. I remember when UCF started playing D-III Football. I have family members who went to and graduated from UCF. However, I didn't go to a game until their first game as a 1-A team in 1996 vs. William & Mary (1-AA) @ the Citrus Bowl (on a visit home). I have also seen them play Miss State @ the 2007 Liberty Bowl and @ UC in 2015. The Knights are (1-2) when I have seen them play in person.

@ BYU Cougars: No affiliation at all, but I have seen the Cougars play 4 times in 4 different stadiums with a (3-1) record: I saw them win @ Fresno State in 1995 (when Steve Sarkisian set the single game completion percentage record - min of 15 passes, I believe), I saw them beat K-State in the 1997 Cotton Bowl to finish the 1996 season (14-1), I saw them play Undefeated Marshall in the 1999 Motor City Bowl and win @ Cincinnati in 2016 on a cold, blustery day.

@ Houston Cougars: I have only seen the Cougars once in Football @ Alabama in 2007 when Saban's first Crimson Tide team had to hold on for dear life as Case Keenum tried to rally the Cougars from a 0-23 deficit and had the ball with a chance to win in the final minute before bogging down at the Alabama 20 yard-line to fall 24-30. Tough loss, but lots of Cougar guts that day. BONUS: I saw Phi Slama Jama play and win @ LSU in 1983. They were somethin', somethin'!

So, welcome aboard Bearcats, Golden Knights, Blue and Red Cougars! I look forward to seeing all four teams play @ Jack Trice Stadium and @ Hilton Coliseum soon and hope to make a visit to all four schools in the future. The Big XII is AWESOME, and the new teams add some flavor to the gumbo!

*Add-in Edit*

 

[State2015]

@ Cincinnati, @ BYU, @ UCF and @ Houston, welcome to the Big XII!

My Bearcats, Golden Knights and Blue and Red Cougars bona fides:

@ Cincinnati Bearcats: I lived in Cincinnati for 17 years and have seen the Bearcats play 40 times with a 26-14 record. I have seen UC play as a C-USA, Big East and American team. Nippert Statdium is a hidden gem of a CFB Stadium. Too many games to mention, but the 2002 game was Ohio State @ Paul Brown Stadium stands out, even in defeat. Last game @ Nippert was vs. Tulane in 2018 on a magnificent day, and I last saw the Bearcats in the 2021 Cotton Bowl vs. Alabama. Looking forward to seeing the Bearcats play as a Big Xii Team!

@ UCF Knights: I graduated from High School in Orlando back, back, back in the day. I remember when UCF started playing D-III Football. I have family members who went to and graduated from UCF. However, I didn't go to a game until their first game as a 1-A team in 1996 vs. William & Mary (1-AA) @ the Citrus Bowl (on a visit home). I have also seen them play Miss State @ the 2007 Liberty Bowl and @ UC in 2015. The Knights are (1-2) when I have seen them play in person.

@ BYU Cougars: No affiliation at all, but I have seen the Cougars play 4 times in 4 different stadiums with a (3-1) record: I saw them win @ Fresno State in 1995 (when Steve Sarkisian set the single game completion percentage record - min of 15 passes, I believe), I saw them beat K-State in the 1997 Cotton Bowl to finish that (14-1) season, I saw them play Undefeated Marshall in the 1999 Motor City Bowl and win @ Cincinnati in 2016 on a cold, blustery day.

@ Houston Cougars: I have only seen the Cougars once in Football @ Alabama in 2007 when Saban's first Alabama team had to hold on for dear life as Case Keenum tried to rally the Cougars from a 0-23 deficit and had the ball with a chance to win in the final minute before bogging down at the Alabama 20 yard-line to fall 24-30. Tough loss, but lots of Cougar guts that day. BONUS: I saw Phi Slama Jama play and win @ LSU in 1983. They were somethin', somethin'!

So, welcome aboard Bearcats, Golden Knights, Blue and Red Cougars! I look forward to seeing all four teams play @ Jack Trice Stadium and Hilton Coliseum soon and hope to make a visit to all four schools in the future. The Big XII is AWESOME, and the new teams add some flavor to the gumbo!

Wow, very cool. I’m jealous of all the football you’ve seen!

 

[AlaCyclone]

Wow, very cool. I’m jealous of all the football you’ve seen!

It's been a fun ride! Helps that I'm older (First game in 1971), have lived all over the country (9 states) and once had a traveling job that made is really easy to explore places! Don't get out as much any longer.