ISU Win/Loss Projections ESPN FPI

[BCClone]

Want to throw up this morning?
The Brian Ferentz offensive scheme probably wins 4 of those games and goes 8-4.

1. They make the FGs because they always have a great K (KU, Tech)
2. their brainless, helpless, HOPELESS offense diving into the line to kill 40 seconds and punt the ball, doesn't turn it over like a pastry shop (UT, OSU)

This is the foundation of the optimistic view for 2023 ISU. Average special teams and offense, with the very good defense, they can absolutely win games.

The foundation of the pessimistic view is these things won't change because they haven't really yet under CMC.

Now also factor in the full Iowa offense. We actually did move the ball with a passing game in many of those games, Iowa routinely just airmailed their passes into the stands. Their defense was not set up for spread offenses either, I don’t agree with Iowa going 8-4 with that schedule.

 

[RealisticCy]

Want to throw up this morning?
The Brian Ferentz offensive scheme probably wins 4 of those games and goes 8-4.

1. They make the FGs because they always have a great K (KU, Tech)
2. their brainless, helpless, HOPELESS offense diving into the line to kill 40 seconds and punt the ball, doesn't turn it over like a pastry shop (UT, OSU)

This is the foundation of the optimistic view for 2023 ISU. Average special teams and offense, with the very good defense, they can absolutely win games.

The foundation of the pessimistic view is these things won't change because they haven't really yet under CMC.

Even average line play and fewer turnovers would make a massive difference, even if we still can't make a kick.

New OC this year might make a big difference; need to play to the strength of the team. Hopefully a lot of the inefficiency last year was corrected when Manning was shown the door.

45 rushes/20 passes sets up play action and wears down the defense, snap the thing with 2 on the play clock, do not turn it over.

Despite not playing from behind in blowouts essentially all year, ISU had the 23rd most passing attempts in FBS. We were 26th worst in yards/attempt; also, 14th worst in yards/carry.

 

[RealisticCy]

It is a big ask, but let’s look at it. Couldn’t run the ball, we basically had a poor line and we were having to go deep with freshmen RBs. We have a new line coach and the backs have another year and hopefully Norton is healthy.

HD is gone, he had a lack of field presence and was a turnover machine. Have two new QBs, not as much experience but may be better leaders and be a little more careful with the ball.

Had freshmen kickers. We now have a STs coach and the kickers have had a full off season to work on their craft. Doesn’t guarantee anything, but hard to imagine it getting worse.

I say it’s very likely that at least two of them would improve with the QB being the question mark.

The UNI and Ohio games will tell us a lot: if we can't absolutely dominate the line of scrimmage against them, it'll be a long year. If we pile up rushing yardage getting 7 yards a crack, we at least have some hope that things have improved.

 

[madguy30]

The UNI and Ohio games will tell us a lot: if we can't absolutely dominate the line of scrimmage against them, it'll be a long year. If we pile up rushing yardage getting 7 yards a crack, we at least have some hope that things have improved.

It might be until mid-October to really know the capabilities.

 

[ZRF]

It might be until mid-October to really know the capabilities.

Nah.

Both of those teams should be manhandled based on talent and resources alone. Things units struggle with early on are pentalties, cohesion mistakes (missed pass protection assignments), and missed blocks. Rarely does a unit struggle physically early on only to magically turn it up late in the season. We have enough veterans to where we will know VERY early on if they have the capability to be a better unit.

If we struggles physically in those games its going to be a long season (yet again) up front.

 

[ZRF]

Even average line play and fewer turnovers would make a massive difference, even if we still can't make a kick.

New OC this year might make a big difference; need to play to the strength of the team. Hopefully a lot of the inefficiency last year was corrected when Manning was shown the door.

45 rushes/20 passes sets up play action and wears down the defense, snap the thing with 2 on the play clock, do not turn it over.

Despite not playing from behind in blowouts essentially all year, ISU had the 23rd most passing attempts in FBS. We were 26th worst in yards/attempt; also, 14th worst in yards/carry.

Each one of these items is sensible and realistic by itself, but RARELY have any of these things panned out under Campbell or in the school's history. The line should have been better the last 2 years but it wasn't. The only bright spot on special teams the last few years was Mevis, but regardless of our changes the "solutions" rarely work. The offense and it's design was a dumpster fire so how can it be worse than Manning right (it can)?

One thing I've learned in being a fan (football) is that our expectations rarely come to fruition. The expectations of the teams capabilities a few years ago, the addition of Andrews as a boost to the team's overall strength (which I thought was lacking for years up front)...the list goes on. I think until we see actual change it's more likely we will be closer to the historical norms. The latter has proven to be the case more times than not.

BUT....if some of those changes DO happen we could see a huge difference in on field performace. The ability to to not only make some FGs but win field psoition battles (you know...having coverage and not having punts go 20 yards) could be a 6-10 point swing in some games. Being able to run the ball and pass protect (OL play) would be huge. Having an offensive scheme that utilizes field depths, helps our QBs with misdirection and pass protection help, while also given them hot routes (something Manning NEVER utilized) would help the offense immensely. Do all of those things together? A different team entirely.

 

[CascadeClone]

Even average line play and fewer turnovers would make a massive difference, even if we still can't make a kick.

New OC this year might make a big difference; need to play to the strength of the team. Hopefully a lot of the inefficiency last year was corrected when Manning was shown the door.

45 rushes/20 passes sets up play action and wears down the defense, snap the thing with 2 on the play clock, do not turn it over.

Despite not playing from behind in blowouts essentially all year, ISU had the 23rd most passing attempts in FBS. We were 26th worst in yards/attempt; also, 14th worst in yards/carry.

"complimentary football"

I will say, I think some of the excessive passing was from the "take what the defense gives you" mindset. And teams just focused on the run and put the pressure on the new QB. Sometimes you just have to run it, even into bad situations, just to keep the clock running and keep the pressure off the new QB.

 

[KidSilverhair]

I feel like if we fixed one thing out of (horrible FG kicking, no running game, bad INT's) we win 2-3 more games. Don't have to fix them all, just one.

Those yards-per-carry numbers, holy crap, that’s putrid. Only the K State loss was over 3 ypc, and that was barely, while FOUR games were UNDER 2.5 ypc.

When people complain about Dekkers throwing the ball too much and giving up too many picks, well … it’s tough to have a good passing attack when you can’t run the ball at all and everybody in the stadium knows you’re gonna put it in the air. For all the hype we’ve had for several seasons in a row about the talent on the O line, I sure wish they’d actually show up and play like they were expected to.

 

[madguy30]

Nah.

Both of those teams should be manhandled based on talent and resources alone. Things units struggle with early on are pentalties, cohesion mistakes (missed pass protection assignments), and missed blocks. Rarely does a unit struggle physically early on only to magically turn it up late in the season. We have enough veterans to where we will know VERY early on if they have the capability to be a better unit.

If we struggles physically in those games its going to be a long season (yet again) up front.

So....if ISU struggles to run early in the season...that's basically it?

Your takes outside of reality are charging up pretty quickly.

 

[SCarolinaCy]

Each one of these items is sensible and realistic by itself, but RARELY have any of these things panned out under Campbell or in the school's history. The line should have been better the last 2 years but it wasn't. The only bright spot on special teams the last few years was Mevis, but regardless of our changes the "solutions" rarely work. The offense and it's design was a dumpster fire so how can it be worse than Manning right (it can)?

One thing I've learned in being a fan (football) is that our expectations rarely come to fruition. The expectations of the teams capabilities a few years ago, the addition of Andrews as a boost to the team's overall strength (which I thought was lacking for years up front)...the list goes on. I think until we see actual change it's more likely we will be closer to the historical norms. The latter has proven to be the case more times than not.

BUT....if some of those changes DO happen we could see a huge difference in on field performace. The ability to to not only make some FGs but win field psoition battles (you know...having coverage and not having punts go 20 yards) could be a 6-10 point swing in some games. Being able to run the ball and pass protect (OL play) would be huge. Having an offensive scheme that utilizes field depths, helps our QBs with misdirection and pass protection help, while also given them hot routes (something Manning NEVER utilized) would help the offense immensely. Do all of those things together? A different team entirely.

We rarely consider the competition making corrections, playing better.

 

[Aclone]

2022 Losses
Baylor by 7: down 17-14 at half Dekkers throws a pick on the 2nd play of the 3rd quarter and another in Baylor territory early in the 4th. Offense had 25 minutes of possession time; 2.4 yards/carry, 36 pass attempts

Kansas by 3: 3 missed FG's, Dekkers throws a pick on 3rd and 12 at our own 5 that gifts them their second TD; defense allows 28 yards on 6 drives in the second half. 0.9 yards/carry, 48 pass attempts

K-State by 1: 3.3 yards/carry, 38 pass attempts

Texas by 3: Dekkers picked off in the endzone on 3rd down; Dekkers fumbles in Texas territory with 2 minutes left; 2.6 yards/carry, 36 pass attempts

Oklahoma by 14: Dekkers INT on the second play of the game, 2 more picks in the fourth quarter, one of which was returned to the 2 yard line; 2.4 yards/carry, 57 pass attempts

Okie State by 6: 5 turnovers (3 picks, two fumbles) including 3 in the first 4 possessions; 2 more TO on downs (both in the fourth quarter); 1.6 yards/carry, 43 pass attempts

Texas tech by 4: two 30-ish yard field goals missed in the first half, led to two TO on down at the Tech 5 yard line in the second half; 3.0 yards/carry, 36 pass attempts

TCU by a million: started with consecutive 3&Outs totaling 1 yard, next nine possessions included 2 missed FG, 2 picks, a fumble, a TO on downs after losing 5 yards.

Bold above: can't remember which games....was that KSU and Texas Tech? I remember X had one that really hurt....

We couldn't run the ball, and were both horribly inefficient and turnover prone when we passed. You can get away with being ****** at rushing as long as you don't throw picks. You can get away with a poor passing game if you can consistently run the ball. You can get away with poor red zone play if you can at least make FG's.

It's a big ask to correct all this stuff in one year, particularly with what the team lost....but Dekkers not being the QB also might be a massive upgrade. OL play will be the key.

I really, really appreciated this breakdown. Thanks!

The only thing I’d add is to “we couldn’t run the ball” would be how the running back injuries cascaded into what wasn’t almost a desperation frantic effort when teams immediately started ignoring the run game.

And that doesn’t include the other side of the coin…pass blocking.

For all the hype we’ve had for several seasons in a row about the talent on the O line, I sure wish they’d actually show up and play like they were expected to.

We’ve heard now that Tyler Miller played all year with one arm, and that Jared Hufford was dinged up all year. Both had surgery after the season, and should be fully healthy now.

Combine the lack of a running game due to injuries with the porous pass protection, and the futility of the offense was hardly a surprise.

Due to all of those injuries, Deckers had less around him than Brock ever did. Top that off with the fact that he didn’t have Brock’s uncanny ability to slip through oncoming rushers, or poise under pressure…and well, you get what happened.

I’m going to take a wild guess that Hunter’s picks would have been halved (or more) if he had a solid running game and a healthy OL.

After all, as impressive of a rookie year as Brock just had, I feel like we should all remember some of the horrendous picks HE was prone to as a Cyclone when the oncoming pressure was just too much.

And Hunter had that a whole lot more often…minus Breece & Co.

 

[dafarmer]

Even average line play and fewer turnovers would make a massive difference, even if we still can't make a kick.

New OC this year might make a big difference; need to play to the strength of the team. Hopefully a lot of the inefficiency last year was corrected when Manning was shown the door.

45 rushes/20 passes sets up play action and wears down the defense, snap the thing with 2 on the play clock, do not turn it over.

Despite not playing from behind in blowouts essentially all year, ISU had the 23rd most passing attempts in FBS. We were 26th worst in yards/attempt; also, 14th worst in yards/carry.

Those 12 yards outs really adds up on the passing yardage stats. We never through a pass less than 10 yards for a 2 yard gain.

 

[ZRF]

I really, really appreciated this breakdown. Thanks!

The only thing I’d add is to “we couldn’t run the ball” would be how the running back injuries cascaded into what wasn’t almost a desperation frantic effort when teams immediately started ignoring the run game.

And that doesn’t include the other side of the coin…pass blocking.


We’ve heard now that Tyler Miller played all year with one arm, and that Jared Hufford was dinged up all year. Both had surgery after the season, and should be fully healthy now.

Combine the lack of a running game due to injuries with the porous pass protection, and the futility of the offense was hardly a surprise.

Due to all of those injuries, Deckers had less around him than Brock ever did. Top that off with the fact that he didn’t have Brock’s uncanny ability to slip through oncoming rushers, or poise under pressure…and well, you get what happened.

I’m going to take a wild guess that Hunter’s picks would have been halved (or more) if he had a solid running game and a healthy OL.

After all, as impressive of a rookie year as Brock just had, I feel like we should all remember some of the horrendous picks HE was prone to as a Cyclone when the oncoming pressure was just too much.

And Hunter had that a whole lot more often…minus Breece & Co.

If these things are true it makes Manning and all of the coaches involved in what we did complete dumbasses. So we were playing 5 down lineman, with narrow splits, running straight drops, and rarely giving Dekkers help with dinged up linemen? If so you have GTBFKM.

 

[SolarGarlic]

2022 Losses
Baylor by 7: down 17-14 at half Dekkers throws a pick on the 2nd play of the 3rd quarter and another in Baylor territory early in the 4th. Offense had 25 minutes of possession time; 2.4 yards/carry, 36 pass attempts

Kansas by 3: 3 missed FG's, Dekkers throws a pick on 3rd and 12 at our own 5 that gifts them their second TD; defense allows 28 yards on 6 drives in the second half. 0.9 yards/carry, 48 pass attempts

K-State by 1: 3.3 yards/carry, 38 pass attempts

Texas by 3: Dekkers picked off in the endzone on 3rd down; Dekkers fumbles in Texas territory with 2 minutes left; 2.6 yards/carry, 36 pass attempts

Oklahoma by 14: Dekkers INT on the second play of the game, 2 more picks in the fourth quarter, one of which was returned to the 2 yard line; 2.4 yards/carry, 57 pass attempts

Okie State by 6: 5 turnovers (3 picks, two fumbles) including 3 in the first 4 possessions; 2 more TO on downs (both in the fourth quarter); 1.6 yards/carry, 43 pass attempts

Texas tech by 4: two 30-ish yard field goals missed in the first half, led to two TO on down at the Tech 5 yard line in the second half; 3.0 yards/carry, 36 pass attempts

TCU by a million: started with consecutive 3&Outs totaling 1 yard, next nine possessions included 2 missed FG, 2 picks, a fumble, a TO on downs after losing 5 yards.

Bold above: can't remember which games....was that KSU and Texas Tech? I remember X had one that really hurt....

We couldn't run the ball, and were both horribly inefficient and turnover prone when we passed. You can get away with being ****** at rushing as long as you don't throw picks. You can get away with a poor passing game if you can consistently run the ball. You can get away with poor red zone play if you can at least make FG's.

It's a big ask to correct all this stuff in one year, particularly with what the team lost....but Dekkers not being the QB also might be a massive upgrade. OL play will be the key.

This is an incredible breakdown. How we were able to actually have a chance in some of these is a testament to Heacock.

 

[SolarGarlic]

Want to throw up this morning?
The Brian Ferentz offensive scheme probably wins 4 of those games and goes 8-4.

1. They make the FGs because they always have a great K (KU, Tech)
2. their brainless, helpless, HOPELESS offense diving into the line to kill 40 seconds and punt the ball, doesn't turn it over like a pastry shop (UT, OSU)

This is the foundation of the optimistic view for 2023 ISU. Average special teams and offense, with the very good defense, they can absolutely win games.

The foundation of the pessimistic view is these things won't change because they haven't really yet under CMC.

Their biggest weapon is their punter. When you can pin your opponent inside the 10 no matter where you are on the field, it's a massive advantage. He is holding up that house of cards.

 

[ZRF]

Their biggest weapon is their punter. When you can pin your opponent inside the 10 no matter where you are on the field, it's a massive advantage. He is holding up that house of cards.

This is what makes Campbell's "indifference" to STs so infuriating (as well as a lot of coaches before him). Iowa might have won the game 2 years ago solely on STs. Not only did it gain them valuable field position the field position by itself likely led to some of the mistakes and TOs that came on that end.

I've never seen a collegiate punter influence the game like he did. His timing (waiting to kick), his air time (allowing coverage to get down the field) and back spin were superb. Twice inside the two, a few more inside the 5, and several inside the 10? Best kicking perfomance I've ever seen.

 

[ISUCyclones2015]

This is gonna be 2011 all over again.

Win the first 3 but just barely
Lose the next few
Beat a bad Kansas and Cincy team

Then circle the calendar for November 18 (sound familiar?) when we dash their hopes for a College Football Playoff birth when we shock the world and upset a top 5 Texas team and send them packing to the SEC.

I can hear "Sandstorm" in the distance as I type this....

 

[RagingCloner]

Thought this was interesting... FPI has us favored in our first 4 games, then only 2 of our last 8.

Favored in 4 of 6 at home, underdog in 4 of 6 on the road.

View attachment 115859

Im late to the party on this, but holy ****, the premise of TOE not having Mcnamara really changes their projections

 

[Jer]

Im late to the party on this, but holy ****, the premise of TOE not having Mcnamara really changes their projections

He was practicing this weekend. Even if they held him out this coming weekend out of precautions, he'll almost certainly play against Iowa State. The difference between us losing Dekkers and them hypothetically losing McNamara is that Dekkers played like **** last year so it's not a drop off for us to trott out a newbie, whereas McDamara is an above average QB and it would be a massive drop off to the next in line.

 

[RagingCloner]

He was practicing this weekend. Even if they held him out this coming weekend out of precautions, he'll almost certainly play against Iowa State. The difference between us losing Dekkers and them hypothetically losing McNamara is that Dekkers played like **** last year so it's not a drop off for us to trott out a newbie, whereas McDamara is an above average QB and it would be a massive drop off to the next in line.

Rumor is he was at practice, not actively participating. Is that right?