ISU Win/Loss Projections ESPN FPI

Jer

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Rumor is he was at practice, not actively participating. Is that right?
That I don't know. I know he was geared up so assumed he practiced some, but that doesn't mean it was anything intense.
 

Statefan10

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That I don't know. I know he was geared up so assumed he practiced some, but that doesn't mean it was anything intense.
It wasn't a true practice, it was more of a walkthrough, but he was still out there. If it's a quad issue, that's something that can feel fine until you take off running or get hit. It's likely going to linger on all season.
 
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Jer

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It wasn't a true practice, it was more of a walkthrough, but he was still out there. If it's a quad issue, that's something that can feel fine until you take off running or get hit. It's likely going to linger on all season.
Will be interesting to watch unfold. I'm guessing he'll be 100% for the ISU game and then 50% the remainder of the year, lol.

The one upside he has is he's got good poise in the pocket and much more of a stationary guy. Not sure which quad it was to know if it could impact his mechanics at all.
 
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Statefan10

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Will be interesting to watch unfold. I'm guessing he'll be 100% for the ISU game and then 50% the remainder of the year, lol.

The one upside he has is he's got good poise in the pocket and much more of a stationary guy. Not sure which quad it was to know if it could impact his mechanics at all.
Yeah I agree I think overall, he'll be fine for the ISU game. Only way he's not is if he tweaks it during the first game.
 

CascadeClone

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He was practicing this weekend. Even if they held him out this coming weekend out of precautions, he'll almost certainly play against Iowa State. The difference between us losing Dekkers and them hypothetically losing McNamara is that Dekkers played like **** last year so it's not a drop off for us to trott out a newbie, whereas McDamara is an above average QB and it would be a massive drop off to the next in line.
Who is their next guy in line?
 

Jer

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Yeah, my guess is they'd drop down to Deacon Hill. That would be an interesting matchup of young, highly recruited QBs (Hill was a borderline 4 star).
 

Statefan10

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Yeah, my guess is they'd drop down to Deacon Hill. That would be an interesting matchup of young, highly recruited QBs (Hill was a borderline 4 star).
Wisconsin fans say Hill is flat out not good.
 

Jer

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Wisconsin fans say Hill is flat out not good.
I don’t know if he is or not but you would think he would have played a lot last year if he was, because they sucked at QB. But, the fan base of a team losing a player will typically say they sucked or got massive NIL.
 

Statefan10

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I don’t know if he is or not but you would think he would have played a lot last year if he was, because they sucked at QB. But, the fan base of a team losing a player will typically say they sucked or got massive NIL.
Who really knows. I just saw a few Wisconsin fans comment on the tweet and they said he just wasn't very good. He's 2nd on the depth chart only because Labas is injured.
 
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Jer

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Who really knows. I just saw a few Wisconsin fans comment on the tweet and they said he just wasn't very good. He's 2nd on the depth chart only because Labas is injured.
Agree, and we’ve seen with Dekkers that being highly recruited doesn’t guarantee high performance. I do think Cade is getting undervalued here though… if Brian can get out of the way.
 

Statefan10

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Agree, and we’ve seen with Dekkers that being highly recruited doesn’t guarantee high performance. I do think Cade is getting undervalued here though… if Brian can get out of the way.
I think he's going to do fine. It's really all going to come down to the OL and the run game though. Cade didn't throw the ball that much at Michigan. They relied heavily on the run and were damn good at it. The year he took them to the title, there were 7 games where he didn't throw the ball 20+ times and there were 10 games where he had less than 200 yards passing.

I'm not sure that means anything for his skillset but what it does show is that the team's success wasn't predicated really at all on Cade's arm.
 
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CascadeClone

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I think he's going to do fine. It's really all going to come down to the OL and the run game though. Cade didn't throw the ball that much at Michigan. They relied heavily on the run and were damn good at it. The year he took them to the title, there were 7 games where he didn't throw the ball 20+ times and there were 10 games where he had less than 200 yards passing.

I'm not sure that means anything for his skillset but what it does show is that the team's success wasn't predicated really at all on Cade's arm.
All he has to do is not be terrible and he is a significant upgrade.

But what Iowa really needs on offense is better O-line play so they can run the ball consitently. They WANT to run the ball, weary your soul, and murder you with D and ST. Passing is just something you have to do to keep the defense honest.
 
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SolterraCyclone

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Updated original post with latest outlooks after week 1.
One weird thing I see is our expected win % at Cincy is really low. ESPN only giving us a 34% chance to win that game. To me, that is one of the gettable game to try and earn 6 wins. New coach, roster overhaul, first year in the Big 12.

ESPN does have us at 57% chance to win against Iowa. Which seems a little high honestly
 

cyclones500

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One weird thing I see is our expected win % at Cincy is really low. ESPN only giving us a 34% chance to win that game. To me, that is one of the gettable game to try and earn 6 wins. New coach, roster overhaul, first year in the Big 12.

ESPN does have us at 57% chance to win against Iowa. Which seems a little high honestly

I tend to agree. I would nudge Cincy into at least the 45-49%, but I could be way off. CyHawk seems more like a 48 to 52, but I guess that's splitting hairs compared to 57 anyway.
 

cymonw1980

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One weird thing I see is our expected win % at Cincy is really low. ESPN only giving us a 34% chance to win that game. To me, that is one of the gettable game to try and earn 6 wins. New coach, roster overhaul, first year in the Big 12.

ESPN does have us at 57% chance to win against Iowa. Which seems a little high honestly
I think there are a couple key points...

1) I don't think the power rankings do a very good job of adjusting for year to year changes in roster / coaches and it is similar to vegas power ratings where early in the season last years performance impacts this a lot. So, iowa may be a bit under valued, cinci over valued based on this.

2) I think that we have been significantly under valued by most analysts / fans because of the 4-8 record and off season issues. The reality is, our defense may be as good as it was a year ago (if not, it's close) and our offense just needs to not turn the ball over (maybe easier said than done) and special teams just needs to not be a liability and we can improve our win total significantly. We were in every game except TCU a year ago. Not that we should have won all of them, but we can easily improve if we are better in the red zone, eliminate some of the turnovers, improve a bit on special teams. nothing major just back to "normal" for campbell in those areas. Power rankings like ISU because based on our metrics we should win more than we do. Not sure if that is good or bad...
 

RagingCloner

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I was thinking before the UNI game that anywhere from 5-6 games would be possible, with also 4 being a huge possibility as well. After watching the UNI game like 6 times, and seeing how bad TTU, Baylor, and OSU were, I am very optimistic about our chances of a bowl game. Should we pull this one out Saturday, there is a realistic chance we tie last years win total in week 4
 
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shadow

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Thought this was interesting... FPI has us favored in our first 4 games, then only 2 of our last 8.

Favored in 4 of 6 at home, underdog in 4 of 6 on the road.

View attachment 115859

EDIT:

Updating this with the week 1 results in (9/5/2023):

View attachment 116326

Win Total now at 6.472 and games we are favored in jumped from 6 to 8.

Biggest moves are on TCU (+15.5%), Baylor (+20.3%).

Baylor and TCU both moved from underdog to favored.

8 of 12 games improved our our win total outlook. OU, Cinci, Kansas, and KSU are the 4 that declined week to week.

How do things look now that we're halfway thru the season?