Will ISU make a Bowl Game? YES! Which One? LIBERTY BOWL 12/29

[AlaCyclone]

Goober still has UCF (3-4, 0-4) in a Big XII Bowl slot vs. Arizona in the Independece and Iowa State (4-3, 3-1) not making a Big XII (or any other) Bowl. He obviously doesn't deep dive on this, which is sad for a so-called "Bowl Expert".

2025 College Football Bowl Predictions - NCAA Bowl Game Projections

CBS Sports bowl experts select the teams they believe will make the National Semifinals at the end of the season, along with projections for each game.

www.cbssports.com

 

[BigJCy]

Goober still has UCF (3-4, 0-4) in a Big XII Bowl slot vs. Arizona in the Independece and Iowa State (4-3, 3-1) not making a Big XII (or any other) Bowl. He obviously doesn't deep dive on this, which is sad for a so-called "Bowl Expert".

2025 College Football Bowl Predictions - NCAA Bowl Game Projections

CBS Sports bowl experts select the teams they believe will make the National Semifinals at the end of the season, along with projections for each game.

www.cbssports.com

McMurphy is by far the best I think at the Bowl Projections. Mandel as much as he can piss you off at times is pretty decent at it as well.

 

[cyclones500]

Goober still has UCF (3-4, 0-4) in a Big XII Bowl slot vs. Arizona in the Independece and Iowa State (4-3, 3-1) not making a Big XII (or any other) Bowl. He obviously doesn't deep dive on this, which is sad for a so-called "Bowl Expert".

2025 College Football Bowl Predictions - NCAA Bowl Game Projections

CBS Sports bowl experts select the teams they believe will make the National Semifinals at the end of the season, along with projections for each game.

www.cbssports.com

I don't know why I looked at his projection, but I did earlier -- I assumed ISU wouldn't be on it, since Palm didn't have us in last week (and should have been) plus it being a bye week ...

As we discussed here last week, by season's end it's possible Iowa State won't get to a bowl, but as it stands now and with the available Big 12 slots, putting a 3-4 (0-4) over ISU is silly.

He also has Texas in CFP, not Oklahoma, that's where the flaw begins. Yeah, Texas has a better quality win (Alabama) and I guess better schedule strength to this point compared to OU', but Oklahoma (1) is undefeated and (2) defeated Texas head-to-freaking-head.

 

[thisISnextyear]

I don't know why I looked at his projection, but I did earlier -- I assumed ISU wouldn't be on it, since Palm didn't have us in last week (and should have been) plus it being a bye week ...

As we discussed here last week, by season's end it's possible Iowa State won't get to a bowl, but as it stands now and with the available Big 12 slots, putting a 3-4 (0-4) over ISU is silly.

He also has Texas in CFP, not Oklahoma, that's where the flaw begins. Yeah, Texas has a better quality win (Alabama) and I guess better schedule strength to this point compared to OU', but Oklahoma (1) is undefeated and (2) defeated Texas head-to-freaking-head.

I think the national narrative is that Texas will beat OU in Arlington...

 

[cuphues]

If you look at Texas' schedule this year, they play 10 games in the state of Texas. The game against ISU will be the only game they play north of Texas all year.

I'm thinking upset special! Hoping for a 20 degree night game with wind chills in the single digits.

Not calling out the poster I am responding to, just asking can anyone show statistics that teams from below the Mason/Dixon line play poorly in cold weather? I am from Iowa and now live in Texas and although I would like to believe this provides the Clones an advantage, I am skeptical it has a statistical advantage. And don’t use the small sample size of UT playing in Ames. I don’t think Southern teams playing in the North of this country is a provable advantage. Just saying.

If you look at Texas' schedule this year, they play 10 games in the state of Texas. The game against ISU will be the only game they play north of Texas all year.

I'm thinking upset special! Hoping for a 20 degree night game with wind chills in the single digits.

 

[RonBurgundy]

Not calling out the poster I am responding to, just asking can anyone show statistics that teams from below the Mason/Dixon line play poorly in cold weather? I am from Iowa and now live in Texas and although I would like to believe this provides the Clones an advantage, I am skeptical it has a statistical advantage. And don’t use the small sample size of UT playing in Ames. I don’t think Southern teams playing in the North of this country is a provable advantage. Just saying.

Patrick Mahomes and Texas Tech v Iowa State on November 16. ISU 66 - Mahomes Tech 10

Those little Texas boys gave up after the first time Lanning ran through them. Pussies. And it was cold, but not that cold.

 

[cyclones500]

I think the national narrative is that Texas will beat OU in Arlington...

Maybe so, but OU defeated Texas in Dallas. That actually happened. Speculation is another matter.

(Not a rejection ofyour comment, you're just stating the general narrative)

Maybe Palm's projections are "what probably occurs, with some based on actual results" and not a snapshot. I thought it's supposed to be "if bowls/playoff were determined today."

Palm used to do the speculative bracketology years ago, then abandoned it for current-litmus. (And still isn't all that accurate, but that's a separate matter).

 

[clone52]

Not calling out the poster I am responding to, just asking can anyone show statistics that teams from below the Mason/Dixon line play poorly in cold weather? I am from Iowa and now live in Texas and although I would like to believe this provides the Clones an advantage, I am skeptical it has a statistical advantage. And don’t use the small sample size of UT playing in Ames. I don’t think Southern teams playing in the North of this country is a provable advantage. Just saying.

Yeah, it's no guarantee but if you punch a team in the mouth and it's super cold, we have seen them role over.

 

[istater7]

Patrick Mahomes and Texas Tech v Iowa State on November 16. ISU 66 - Mahomes Tech 10

Those little Texas boys gave up after the first time Lanning ran through them. Pussies. And it was cold, but not that cold.

But you could also look back to last November for one of the coldest kickoffs in ISU history where Tech took care of business

 

[madguy30]

But you could also look back to last November for one of the coldest kickoffs in ISU history where Tech took care of business

And ISU did Tech a favor by running, what was it, 3-4 dives in a row around the goal line and didn't pick up on the uncovered full/up back?

 

[ISU_Guy]

I think Ohio is going to bite us.

Next two are must win because byu and kstate on the road are very low odds. Texas at home is not great either.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

This should make the Texas game interesting. I know they have Malachi, but wondering if we get Archie

 

[cuphues]

Patrick Mahomes and Texas Tech v Iowa State on November 16. ISU 66 - Mahomes Tech 10

Those little Texas boys gave up after the first time Lanning ran through them. Pussies. And it was cold, but not that cold.

I was at that game. And you are right, it wasn’t that cold. And for the record, Lubbock is in the panhandle, almost as far north as Norman Oklahoma. It snows there multiple times per winter. It may be true that Tech did not come to play, but it had nothing to do with weather or the team being unaccustomed cold weather. Try again.

 

[cuphues]

I agree with your statement that it has happened, but again I just find it hard to believe cold weather can turn a potential playoff team into a bunch of wussies. Why can’t it be that the Clones came prepared and won versus trying to say cold weather made the other team not show up. Statistically I would be shocked if this phenomenon of Southern teams losing in Northern locations can be proven true.

Yeah, it's no guarantee but if you punch a team in the mouth and it's super cold, we have seen them role over.

 

[BigJCy]

McMurphy's updated projections has us playing Kentucky in the Liberty Bowl (Memphis):

College Football Bowl Projections for Week 9: Brett McMurphy's Updated Predictions & Projected Spreads

Check out college football bowl projections for Week 9, featuring Brett McMurphy's updated predictions with projected spreads.

www.actionnetwork.com

 

[cyclones500]

McMurphy's updated projections has us playing Kentucky in the Liberty Bowl (Memphis):

College Football Bowl Projections for Week 9: Brett McMurphy's Updated Predictions & Projected Spreads

Check out college football bowl projections for Week 9, featuring Brett McMurphy's updated predictions with projected spreads.

www.actionnetwork.com

When I review McMurphy's weekly picks, I end up geeking-out looking at the bowl logos.

Pop-Tarts Bowl logo is clever/fun.

 

[qwerty]

This guy thinks it is possible.

Fact or Fiction Friday: Iowa State Wins Out, Who's On the Hot Seat

Welcome to Fact or Fiction Friday. Each Friday, I give our Facebook fans an opportunity to ask the most intriguing questions in the Big 12 Conference, and I will tell you whether they come true or if they are set to fail. Let’s crack it open and see what we have in store this week. […]

www.heartlandcollegesports.com

 

[TXCyclones]

McMurphy's updated projections has us playing Kentucky in the Liberty Bowl (Memphis):

College Football Bowl Projections for Week 9: Brett McMurphy's Updated Predictions & Projected Spreads

Check out college football bowl projections for Week 9, featuring Brett McMurphy's updated predictions with projected spreads.

www.actionnetwork.com

Anybody know what order the B12 bowls pick? I'd think that Houston Bowl or Guaranteed and others would want ISU ahead of those other teams (since we've been to Liberty and CampingPopTartWorld).

 

[BigJCy]

Anybody know what order the B12 bowls pick? I'd think that Houston Bowl or Guaranteed and others would want ISU ahead of those other teams (since we've been to Liberty and CampingPopTartWorld).

Allstate Sugar
Valero Alamo
Pop-Tarts
TaxAct Texas
AutoZone Liberty
Guaranteed Rate
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl*/SERVPRO First Responder Bowl*
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

* Game is a “flex pick” for seventh selection after CFP.

2024-25 Bowl Selection Process

2024-25 Bowl Selection Process

big12sports.com

 

[MJ271]

Not calling out the poster I am responding to, just asking can anyone show statistics that teams from below the Mason/Dixon line play poorly in cold weather? I am from Iowa and now live in Texas and although I would like to believe this provides the Clones an advantage, I am skeptical it has a statistical advantage. And don’t use the small sample size of UT playing in Ames. I don’t think Southern teams playing in the North of this country is a provable advantage. Just saying.

I was curious, so I did some looking. I didn't find anything definitive, and nothing on college football, but here are a couple analyses.

Sports Illustrated: Looked at NFL data 1985-2011 and did not find any advantages for northern teams in cold weather, nor southern teams in hot weather. Article did not give actual numbers.

Reddit: Found higher win percentages for home teams in cold weather games (<32 degrees and <20 degrees) in the regular season than the historical home winning percentage (57%), but also found a lower winning percentage for home teams in cold games in the playoffs. This analysis uses less data, so there are smaller sample sizes, especially for the playoffs.

A real analysis of this would include strength of teams, which neither of these links seem to do. For instance, if you're looking at the 2000s and 2010s, the Patriots and Packers might skew the win percentage quite a bit by being two of the teams most consistently playing in cold weather while also consistently being two of the best teams in the NFL over that period, regardless of weather.