From the analytics sites, they show us a 1-2 pt favorite.
Texas is #25 on KenPom, #22 offensive efficiency and #60 defensive efficiency - which is fairly similar to TCU on both sides, just a bit better. Of course they went to TCU and won by 11 on Saturday.
They are currently 1-3 at home in conference play, with the lone win being a 2 pt win over Baylor. You can look at that both ways, that they are vulnerable at home (a rarity in the BigXII) or that they are desperate.
In conference play they play a 8-man rotation, with 3 bigs and 5 guards.
The bigs are really good and play really well together. There will almost always be 2 of the 3 on the court at the same time, which means we probably won't go small very much. Disu has been their second best player since he returned from injury just before conference play, averaging 17 & 5 with 2 steals and a block while shooting 49% from 3. Mitchell is a beast on the boards when dialed in, he's very comparible to Tre King in terms of size and strength. He's averaging 11 & 8 - but only really scores at the rim. Off the bench is Shedrick, who started for Virginia the last couple years. At 6'11" he's a capable experienced player off the bench, but is only averaging 4 & 2 in conference play.
Disu averages 4 fouls a game in conference play, which is a major weakness for their team. Being aggressive and psychical with him is a key.
When they go small, they play 6'5" Brock Cunningham at the 4. He's been there it seems like forever. He's not shooting as well from 3 this year (35%- he was over 40 the last 2 years) but is still deadly if we don't rotate.
The starting guards are 6'0", 6'1", 6'3" and the primary sub is 6'3". So just based on that, Milan should have some early good looks on iso or posts, if we choose to. Their go-to player is Max Abmas, who averaged 20+ppg at Oral Roberts the last 3 years. He's averaging 18 this year, shooting right at 40% from 3. He averages 3 2-point FGMs, 3 3-point FGM and 3 FTM a game, so he's very much a "score everywhere" guard. Abmas and Hunter kind of share the PG duties, both averaging 4 assists per game and both turn the ball over 2-3 times a game. Abmas plays 37+ minutes per game as well.
Our keys are as usual - get turnovers and easy points off of them. Don't get beat on the boards. No easy points in the paint and hope they aren't super hot and we aren't super cold from 3.
I think they are a team that we can wear down as the game goes with our physical play - and hopefully force some foul trouble on their bigs. I'll predict ISU wins 74-67
