*** Official #14 IOWA STATE vs Texas (SAMSUBA) Game(Day) Thread ***
- Thread starter CycloneRulzzz
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Have a huge win - ***** about the lineups. Like clockwork. Rob and Ward both struggled and both did some nice things. Watson played some very nice defense and Pav came in, gave us 6 off the bench (a couple shots to stop runs). It was a terrific TEAM win, including the coaching staff who just won on the road at a place where we haven't won in 8 years.
We win on Saturday and we're 18-5, 8-3 in the best conference in CBB with all 3 being on the road against ranked opponents. We'll be ranked most likely top 10 come Monday and would be .1 seconds away from being top 5. This proposed "outrageous methodology" as far as lineups go is working. It's keeping guys fresh and these guys are doing a great job knowing their roles and stepping up when they need to. I honestly cannot believe there's even an argument going on about this.
We win on Saturday and we're 18-5, 8-3 in the best conference in CBB with all 3 being on the road against ranked opponents. We'll be ranked most likely top 10 come Monday and would be .1 seconds away from being top 5. This proposed "outrageous methodology" as far as lineups go is working. It's keeping guys fresh and these guys are doing a great job knowing their roles and stepping up when they need to. I honestly cannot believe there's even an argument going on about this.
I think that's actually the case or something similar.
Like this alternative universe kind of thing.
TJ is 1000% not doing things arbitrarily and I know that for a fact. The man always has a plan. Sometimes the plan doesn't work but that's just life in college basketball, let alone the Big 12.
I haven't seen it mentioned here yet so I will do so, Did it feel to anyone else that even though we don't try to play super fast, there were many possessions that felt out of control last night? Seemed like so often we lost control of the ball or took a hail mary pass or shot that didn't have a prayer of success. It worked out so not wanting to be overly critical here and we only had 1 turnover in the 2nd half (and that wasn't a live ball one)
Maybe it was just all the "handsy" play last night but, I had an uneasy feeling sometimes with our lack of control last night.
Maybe it was just all the "handsy" play last night but, I had an uneasy feeling sometimes with our lack of control last night.
Something I think is extremely important is separating the non-conference, which was mostly comprised of terrible D1 teams, and conference play, which is largely top 40 level competition. I searched to be sure, but these stats are for the entire season.
One of my main premises and talking points is that elite athleticism seems to show up more against elite competition. Some are able to hold their own more or even utilize their strengths to where it can more heavily impact a game.
That's why I prefer Torvik as I can look at conference games ONLY. It's more relevant now as it's our current competition and more relevant for tourney time as that's the level of competition we'll be playing in the tourney. Largely the numbers mimic what my eyes have been telling me.
The most eye popping isn't Jones or Pavs, players I already knew had athleticism limitations that hurt their performances (relatively) in conference play, but the performance of Tre King. I knew he'd been bad but he's rated right with Jackson. I'm actually in favor of Ward getting more minutes, Watson getting way more minutes (relative to what he has now), and Jones getting the same to slightly more minutes so King can play less. Statistically speaking Pavs, Omaha, and King have been the worst players by leaps and bounds. The difference? When on Tre can do things (score and soooommmmettttiiimmmesssss rebound) the others can't.
Do you ever get tired talking in circle?
If you hate my posts so much why no just put me on ignore? Wouldn't that make your life so much better?
RE Ward and Jones - after adding last night Ward is slightly ahead of Jones in Adj. Offense Eff. Jones is better in every other category. These are for the whole season, but they are adjusted for opponent:The bold simply is not true. I have no idea where you are getting these "numbers" from.
Ward actually leads the team in BPM during conference play. Better than Lipsey, better than Keshon...CuJo...everyone INCLUDING BRE. That's not to say BRE has played bad, he hasn't. What is abundantly clear is that length and athleticism become more valuable against elite competition (ie athleticism) which is exactly what happens during big 12 play. Relative to the rest of the year Pavs is passable against weak competition while Jones is borderline elite. The lack of athleticism is almost never exploited on the defensive end whereas moves constituting an utter lack of footspeed work. But in the Big 12? That **** doesn't work, and especially against mobile bigs (like a Disu or when we played Uconn last year) Rob's weaknesses are magnified. Hell, the entire team's weaknesses get magnifified but it's those extremely unathletic players that struggle moreso.
In a game with the lead Otz needs to utilize better rotations, leaning on his athletic mobile players that can defend, cover the floor, and maybe more importantly guard the 3. Lipsey, CuJo, Ward, Watson (he becomes more valuable here), Keshon, and even Milan are better players to have out there.
Ward is a better passer, defender, weakside defender, rebounder, transition player, rotational player, and a superior disruptor to Jones. Jones' big advantage on Ward his his moves/shot in the post. He has a superior hook/short range jumper. At the end of the game, ESPECIALLY with the lead and against a player like Disu, Ward is the infinitely better player to have on the floor. The eye test says it. The advance stats say it. It's not even close.
I'd be willing to be a large sum of money, if one could ask Big 12 coaches in confidence, who we should have on the floor at the end of the game I can guarantee you Ward would be the consensus answer. It's not a knock on Jones as much as it is stating Ward is the better player, and the player best suited for those situations.
I'm sorry, anyone that can't see Pavs is out of his league in Big 12 play is either blind, ignorant, or both. Putting him in any meaningful game when not ABSOLUTELY necessary is handicapping our ability to win. Don't believe what I said, just click on the link below. Then compare and contrast non-con to in-conference performance. It's pretty clear who should play (or play more) and who should sit. Both on the overall and situationally.
T-Rank Player Stats - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank
T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.barttorvik.com
EvanMiya CBB Analytics
Advanced college basketball analytics used widely by coaches, journalists, and fans.
evanmiya.com
Texas loves to try and speed you up with their guards and athletic bigs and that's exactly what they did. Now, they're not as fundamentally sound as other defensive teams and we took advantage of that. They tried jumping a lot of passes that ended up being buckets for us. The one that comes to mind is Tamin's final three pointer where Mitchell tried jumping the passing lane and Tamin hit a monstrous shot.
I keep saying it but impatience seems to be something this team falls into.
I think it may be an effect of all the chaos they create on defense and that kind of rhythm bleeds into their own possessions.
It's pretty remarkable that they only had one turn over in the 2nd half. Watching the replay (couldn't see it live) and that last few minutes is some classic 'can't watch, can't look away' stuff.
FWIW they seemed to have more space and time in their shots last night which maybe helped. Things were pretty frantic in Waco.
Tamin was pretty out of control, especially compared to his usual steadiness. He had those two really bad possessions in the first where he forced action and turned the ball over. He also had one, I believe was in the 2nd, where he was out of control, and lost the ball, only for someone else to pick it up. I think we made a 3 on that possession but it easily could have been, and maybe should have been a turnover.
I thought we were pretty loose with our passes up top. A few times we telegraphed our rotations, Texas anticipated, and came close to getting a few steals. For a road game I thought we (generally) took care of the ball well, but I also think it was worse than the TO numbers indicated. We were fortunate not to get burned quite a few times.
The 99-2000 seeding was inexcusable, yet they made us a two and put us in MSU's bracket. When you aren't a "sexy" name I'd say anything is possible. If we win the conference we should definitely be in the conversation.
I have a feeling the committee will hold the ESPN losses against us.
The 'missed bunnies' thing imo gets overplayed and this aspect doesn't get acknowledged enough.
A lay up or good look at like a 5 footer gets different if you're anticipating someone coming in to alter the shot.
I've noticed that sometimes when they are rolling, they try to go for the big shiny highlight play, and overreach and turn it back over or clunk it somehow.
Several times last night, they got a turnover, drove down and tried for a highlight pass that got deflected and stolen back. And not just last night, other times thru the season. I think they just get overexcited and try to do to much at times.
